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July 10-18 Severe Possibilities


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32 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Glad you made out ok. Coal City has had too many tors in recent years.

Yeah, whenever the sirens go off (which they did tonight again) people get really freaked out and always take it seriously now. Feel bad for the kids though, they get really freaked out by any kind of storm since last year. Yet another close call this year! The good news now is that the circulation is moving through largely unpopulated areas for the most part. Hope everyone stays safe. 

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AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...NORTHWEST IND     CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393...     VALID 180246Z - 180415Z     THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393   CONTINUES.     SUMMARY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF WW 393 WITHIN A   NEARLY WEST/EAST-ORIENTED AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA   SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. MONITORING FOR AN   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.    

 

DISCUSSION...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL   WAA...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED FROM KEOKUK TO DES MOINES   COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST IA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EAST-SOUTHEAST   ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL IL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TO THE WEST OF   AN ONGOING SEVERE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. A FAVORABLE   COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR PER 00Z DVN RAOB MAY   SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO EMANATING OUT OF THIS CONVECTIVE   ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AS IT CROSSES THE MS RIVER WHERE LOW-LEVEL   SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE STRONGER. SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY   THREATS...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RICHLY MOIST AIR   MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.   ACTIVITY MAY ULTIMATELY MERGE INTO A BROADER MCS FROM NORTHWEST IND   WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Watching TV now and surprised to see the coverage on the Chicago stations, especially for something that is outside the metro area.  My recollection in prior years is that they didn't cover things like this.

Yeah I noticed that. I like it though, there's a lot of people who live in these small towns who don't have satellite TV, so all they get is Chicago news stations, and it's their only way to know of what's going on for some people. 

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Hey all,

I've browsed this forum for a while now but decided to go ahead and sign up to post here, since I have not seen anyone else post pictures of last night's storm that tracked from Dwight southeast towards Clifton.  I left Bourbonnais about 8:45 when I realized these storms were rotating and I had a shot at a tornado.  Unfortunately, my new camera is in the shop and returns tomorrow, so I had to use my old DSLR and the pictures arent that great.  Here is the best one though.

P7174785 edit1

I would attach but I think the file size is too large and I am not sure how to embed on this forum yet.

 

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39 minutes ago, ChrisBray said:

Hey all,

I've browsed this forum for a while now but decided to go ahead and sign up to post here, since I have not seen anyone else post pictures of last night's storm that tracked from Dwight southeast towards Clifton.  I left Bourbonnais about 8:45 when I realized these storms were rotating and I had a shot at a tornado.  Unfortunately, my new camera is in the shop and returns tomorrow, so I had to use my old DSLR and the pictures arent that great.  Here is the best one though.

P7174785 edit1

I would attach but I think the file size is too large and I am not sure how to embed on this forum yet.

 

Wow! Awesome pic. Where exactly was this one taken?

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28 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Wow! Awesome pic. Where exactly was this one taken?

Intersection of E 3800N Road and N 1800 East Road in Iroquois County, looking NW 7/17/2016 about 9:39 pm.

 

Pretty sure this was on the ground at this point.  Later the storm would pass just to my north with a funnel.  After that I headed east a few miles and witnessed a rope tornado that lasted a few minutes.

P7174792 edit1P7174793 edit 1

 

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Final rating of the Vinton tornado is very high end EF2.  One mph away from EF3.

VINTON, IA TORNADO  
  
RATING:                 EF-2  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    135 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  1.62 MILE  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   100 YARDS  
FATALITIES:             0  
INJURIES:               5  
  
START DATE:             JULY 17, 2016   
START TIME:             501 AM CDT  
START LOCATION:         SOUTH SIDE OF VINTON / BENTON / IA  
START LAT/LON:          42.1531 / -92.0327  
  
END DATE:               JULY 17, 2016  
END TIME:               503 AM CDT  
END LOCATION:           SOUTHEAST SIDE VINTON / BENTON / IA  
END_LAT/LON:            42.1587 / -92.0025  
  
TORNADO TRACKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF VINTON, DAMAGING  
BUILDINGS, TREES, POWER POLES, AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THE TORNADO  
FIRST DAMAGED TREES, THEN HIT THE BALL FIELD WHERE IT DESTROYED  
FENCING, THE SCORE BOARD AND A LARGE LIGHT POLE. IT THEN TRACKED  
ACROSS SEVERAL MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING BUILDINGS, WHERE IT MAINLY  
REMOVED THE ROOF STRUCTURES. FROM THERE THE TORNADO INTENSIFED  
AS IT STRUCK A BRICK APARTMENT BUILDING, WHEN WAS UNROOFED AND  
HAD PARTS OF THE WALLS BLOWN OUT. THE TORNADO THEN FELLED A CELL  
PHONE TOWER AND APPARENTLY BEGAN TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUED ACROSS  
A LARGE FIELD. THE ROOFS OF ANOTHER EIGHT HOMES WERE DAMAGED AS  
THE TORNADO FINALLY EXITED VINTON AND CONTINUED INTO FARMLAND  
WHERE IT DISSIPATED.  

Just shows how quickly spinups can occur in a squall line.

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FWIW we might want to extend this thread for today and perhaps tomorrow as well.

Parts of S IA, NE MO, and far W IL have been upgraded to a slight risk, plus there's a MCD for most of this same area (40% watch probability). 

Also tomorrow's latest Day 2, even though it has a small slight for parts of the ND/MN/Canadian border area, a large marginal area extends southeastward to IL/IN (perhaps the remnants of the MN storms: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1326.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 191728Z - 191930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A
   WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS ONGOING ATTM OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTWARD FLANK OF THIS COMPLEX HAS BEEN
   RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND DAMAGE OVER THE PAST
   HOUR OR SO...AND SOME ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR CASS COUNTY IOWA
   RECENTLY.  ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FAVOR SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION...GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF
   THE COMPLEX AND 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  A
   WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL EXISTS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE CASS
   COUNTY ACTIVITY...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   REMAIN SURFACE-BASED OR BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS REINFORCING DOWNPOURS ATOP THE COLD POOL
   NEAR THE DES MOINES METRO AREA.  AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
   WILL EXIST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND ANY INDICATION OF A MORE
   SOUTHWARD FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY MAY
   NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/HART.. 07/19/2016

 

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