Powerball Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 And also lol at below: 000 FXUS63 KDTX 170749 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 349 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 The narrative in discussions both offered in earlier DTX AFDs and in the SPC Outlooks has been trying to communicate that of uncertainty with convective coverage and timing. Latest guidance seems to be converging on a solution now that is more pessimistic with the overall potential for precipitation. Latest solutions suggest that a low to mid chance pops for showers and thunderstorms will exist along the wind shift as it sags southward through lower Michigan this evening and tonight. The reasons for the pessimism is very familiar to what has been seen this summer: 1. Poor quality and disrupted warm conveyor, 2. Veered out wind profile and compromised lower tropospheric convergence over Southeastern Michigan, 3. Persistent anticyclonic flow influence with little to no 1000-500mb height falls. The greatest foci for mesoscale forcing will occur this afternoon across northern lower Michigan/Straits region/northern Great Lakes immediately ahead of the MCV and then over sections of northern Illinois and Indiana tonight as a backward propagation vector takes hold of the storm motion. Have lowered pops down into the chance category for all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 It's a pretty accurate summary of our recent struggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Was out country cruisinbefore the storms and shot this too. Storms had more bark than bite. Got some nice rumblers though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Cape rebuilding pretty quickly across the southwest half of Iowa. Nice lapse rate plume feeding back into there from the Plains. Should see storms blow up there at some point later today or this evening. Wouldn't completely write off areas further north yet, as that area is recovering quickly as well. Still could see some decent storms blow up over the northern half of Iowa up into WI, although widespread severe threat isn't nearly as potent looking as it would have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 17, 2016 Author Share Posted July 17, 2016 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: This is what the morning storms did 20 miles nw of Cedar Rapids. Was that the storm in Vinton? KGAN is reporting that an apartment building was unroofed there. Also look at the damage to homes in Walford in the same article--could that look tornadic? http://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/overnight-storms-cause-damage-to-homes-in-walford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 SBCAPES >5000 over IA into central IL pretty decent shear too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Up to 83/76 here with a nice cu field rolling nicely as it zips northward. Definitely recovered quite a bit since this morning. But, twill it be enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 I keep wondering if that precip south of Omaha will be the one to explode once it moves east of the present area of convective inhibition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Towers are trying to go up just south of here but the cap is still holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Towers are trying to go up just south of here but the cap is still holding. Now some development is starting to take place, looks like the cap might be eroding. If storms develop and tap into the instability we could be in business, plenty of instability. 88/78 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 16 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Now some development is starting to take place, looks like the cap might be eroding. If storms develop and tap into the instability we could be in business, plenty of instability. 88/78 here. Just walked the dog towers trying to go up from my NW to my NE but look "soft" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 supercell composite of 20 and STP of 4 near me as of 0z convection developing one north central IL now just north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Yeah towers quickly going up over the southern half of the sky here as well. Sweltering 84/77 still. MLI dew up to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 decent towers going up all over now, thunder to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Storm near Odell already warned. Could be fun if more storms grow upscale and tap into this instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 MESO OUT PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...WEST/EAST-ORIENTED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SUSTAINED ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHEAST MO. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT RENDERS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT LARGE BUOYANCY AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED FASHION WITHIN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS NORTHERN IL...WITH A SEPARATE STORM FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST MO. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO SOUTHEAST NEB. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AMID MINOR MLCIN OF -25 TO -50 J/KG PER 00Z ILX/DVN RAOBS. LARGE MLCAPE ALONG WITH AROUND 40-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZED CLUSTERING GIVEN THE WESTERLY MEAN ORIENTED PARALLEL TO DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Tornado warning for Putnam county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 cells are really starting to blow up over North Central IL even a Tornadic cell SE of princeton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Tornado warning for Putnam county. Yea it's confirmed now tornado on the ground 2 miles east of mcnabb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Towers overhead here were taking off, but have since crapped the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 storm near dwight looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 10 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: This is what the morning storms did 20 miles nw of Cedar Rapids. I heard about that this morning. Definitely NOT straight line wind damage. Looks really tornadoish (EF2+) to be exact. As for the storms this morning, the power flickered several times this morning but never went out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: storm near dwight looks interesting TOR warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Yeah southwest portion of Dwight looks to be impacted. Hard to tell for sure though due to radar tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah southwest portion of Dwight looks to be impacted. Hard to tell for sure though due to radar tilt. If that hook could rotate forward a bit, we could be looking at something significant, there is a good couplet there moving southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: If that hook could rotate forward a bit, we could be looking at something significant, there is a good couplet there moving southeast. Yeah it's still intensifying. 80kt inbound bin showing up now for >110kts g2g southeast of Dwight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 0905 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SE DWIGHT 41.06N 88.38W 07/17/2016 LIVINGSTON IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE REPORTED AS POSSIBLE TORNADO. ANOTHER REPORT FROM TRAINED SPOTTER LOOKING NORTHEAST FROM ODELL SEES WALLL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL ILLUMINATED BY LIGHTNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Quote HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD BETWEEN DWIGHT AND CAMPUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 900 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NORTHWEST INDIANA * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EARLY TONIGHT WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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