IWXwx Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: New 4km NAM apocalyptic for the QC late Sunday. Impressive parameters gather in the wake of the morning convection. Shows the potential this setup has if the ankle biting convection and associated cloudiness gets out of the way in time. Lol, good description. Lots of issues out this way means yet another round of scattered garden variety stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 I wonder if we should just extend this thread at least through Monday. Sunday's slight risk covers most of IA, WI, and N IL; while Monday's day 3 has introduced a Slight for much of OH, as well as NW PA and W NY. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 MCS steamroller should take place somewhere close to here tonight. Most cams on board with one or two MCS systems this evening, but placement is still uncertain. Love those nighttime events. Hope this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Tidbit from earlier today from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana... .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 443 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2016 Continue to focus on east-southeastward peel of eastern MT energy into the Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes late this weekend. Leading edge of advected EML reaches into western Great Lakes by late Sunday afternoon. This atop increasingly strong/veering low level flow that should easily advect lower 70s dewpoints now reaching into swrn MO for ramping instability late in the day. While timing of this signaled MCS along with potential system relative downstream development still rather uncertain...possibly not into nwrn CWA til after 00 UTC Mon. For now will continue toward later Sunday afternoon to start ramping pops...though relegate most of event to overnight hours as deep layer shear ramps to around 40 kts which should provide fair degree of sustenance. Suspect any system to become outflow dominant/spread more swd with time overnight as frontal boundary presses southward through CWA. Concern for either upscale regenerative growth and/or new development for late Monday morning into afternoon hours...especially east of interstate 69 as deep layer bulk shear ramps to near 45 knots as lagged/secondary wave approaches/7-5h wswly flow increases to near 50 kts across southern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 New Day 2 expanded the Slight risk further east to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 The WRF-ARW and WRF-NMMB are very excited about a severe line of storms in Wisconsin tomorrow. NSSL-WRF has lots of activity around Chicago. So I suppose there is a range of (nasty) possibilities with pretty decent CAPE and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 The winds are looking impressive for Monday afternoon across the Lower Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 wonder where the new watch will eventually be placed in SD and MN. my thought attm, roughly EAU > ALO > YKN > FFM for the eastern box and BKX > YKN > VTN > MBG for the western one. any thoughts on placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 they went US 12 to I-90, from US 169 to US 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 0z NAM develops a complex in northern IN Monday night and travels southeast through E IN/W OH through the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Just peaked at the 0Z GFS, any MCS should be able to keep it together through the night so a nice nocturnal event could unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Actually have some decent directional shear tomorrow. Think there could be some tornado threat especially early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 The NSSL-WRF has two updraft helicity tracks through Cook County. I know there's a small chance of a tornado there, but maybe something to watch in the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Getting tired of these early am mcs getting well southwest. Today will be low end general thunder at best over chicagoland with the exception of the far southwest cwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 I'm getting tired of bad diurnal timing. Guess I'll go camp out in the complaint thread. Bet there's a couple of tors this evening somewhere near or east of frantthetank's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 The big mcs has produced near-severe wind here along with nice cracks of thunder. I estimate my wind gusted to ~55 mph. A school weather station a couple miles north of me recorded a gust of 61 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Nothing like waking up to your phone blasting off a tornado warning for you area. That'll get you going. Radar confirmed a tor east of DVN. Looks like weak circulation passed a little north of us. Got some wind here, but probably 30-40mph stuff. Exciting start to the day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Definitely an impressive MCS barreling through. It's still decently strong and the outflow isn't outrunning it yet so it could continue producing strong winds for a few hours. Also, it's moving at 55-60 MPH so it should be out of here fast to hopefully allow for destabilization later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Current RAP indicates STP just west of the Chicago area in the Fox River Valley this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: I'm getting tired of bad diurnal timing. Guess I'll go camp out in the complaint thread. Bet there's a couple of tors this evening somewhere near or east of frantthetank's area. This severe weather season should be euthanized at this point. I have yet to see a somewhat decent shelf cloud, CTG lightning, strong/severe wind gusts or even hailstones and it's now almost August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 looks like some spin ups over eastern IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 There are more garden-variety storms developing in western Iowa, with clouds overspreading the state, so there won't be much if any destabilization around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 This is what the morning storms did 20 miles nw of Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Good line of storms this morning. Lots of thunder, winds of around 70mph, if not higher. Suffered no tree damage in my yard, however winds downed powerlines and I was without power until 10 AM or so. Despite the loss of power, still a good storm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Sun's already peaking out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Pic of storm from my backyard this morning as it rolled thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Excellent picture there. 6 minutes ago, vortex said: Pic of storm from my backyard this morning as it rolled thru. Excellent picture there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Shelfies for dayz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 ^Nice pics guys. Yeah lots of clouds behind the departing MCS from the zombievection over Iowa. Very typical of this kind of setup. Would have been a pretty interesting setup over Iowa and southern WI if the morning MCS and elevated trailers didn't occur. The early morning MCS was very entertaining at least. SPC expects the east/west effective boundary from central IL into northern MO/southern IA to be the main focus later on. Sounds about right to me. Hoping I can head out later and get a cool time lapse of some huge towers blowing up in the southern skies if we can clear out enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 lol at today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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