Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Roughly the NW half of MN is in at least a Severe risk today (plus the current action in S MN): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Plus most of MN and the western 2/3 of IA in a large Severe risk for Monday: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html The action is predicted to shift eastward for Tuesday, with Milwaukee, Chicago, most of MI, SE WI and N IL in play for a slight risk: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html SPC also not ruling out some risk areas later this week in parts of the subforum: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 VALID 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY 4-8 TIME FRAME. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/ AND THURSDAY /DAY 5/...WITH SOME SEVERE RISK ANTICIPATED. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IN IDENTIFYING SPECIFIC DAILY 15 PERCENT RISK AREAS REMAINS LOW WITH THIS OUTLOOK. ..BUNTING.. 07/10/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 10, 2016 Author Share Posted July 10, 2016 IMO some surprise severe in western IL this afternoon--there had been a Severe Thunderstorm Warning earlier in southern Knox County (Galesburg and south), but it appears to have weakened. Still appears strong on radar and headed directly toward Peoria in the next hour. Also a few heavy cells southwest of Macomb, while Quincy is under a STW too (until 5PM): SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO430 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016ILC001-MOC111-127-102200-/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-160710T2200Z/ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-430 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDTFOR WESTERN ADAMS...EASTERN LEWIS AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES...AT 430 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM CANTON TO NEAR MAYWOOD...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...QUINCY...CANTON...LA GRANGE...EWING...MAYWOOD...TAYLOR...LIMA AND MEYER.THIS ALSO INCLUDES WAKONDA STATE PARK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING.CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE`S LEADINGKILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TOBE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TOFLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.&&LAT...LON 4021 9151 4020 9150 4020 9134 3981 9140 3990 9180 4021 9160TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 287DEG 10KT 4012 9152 3994 9165HAIL...1.00INWIND...60MPH$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 10, 2016 Author Share Posted July 10, 2016 A tiny pop-up storm that appeared to develop over Jacksonville prompted a severe thunderstorm warning around 5:45, but this cell is heading SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 11, 2016 Author Share Posted July 11, 2016 New Day 3 for Wednesday has a Slight Risk for most of IA, northern and central IL, N MO, S WI, NW IN, and SW lower MI: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html ...GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN NEB/NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN WI/SOUTHEAST MN. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS REGION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD GRADUALLY RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. A MORE ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT WHERE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS MORE UNCERTAIN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVERAGING 30-35 KTS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A SEVERE RISK WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. ..BUNTING.. 07/11/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 looks like the best chances for multiple rounds will remain well to my west/southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Looks like the ongoing complex in W MN should fizzle out before it reaches here. However, that should allow us to destabilize further this afternoon setting the stage for a sweet line this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 going to be some serious wind reports in DVN Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 jump east with new d2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Gonna be an interesting Tues. and Wed. in parts of the Midwest if current model runs hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 thinking redevelopment will occur over IN/MI tomorrow with outflow/mcs remnants blowing through here in the morning hours. could be multiple rounds tomorrow night into wednesday night over much of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Recent euro runs blast a strong line down through eastern Iowa during peak heating Wednesday. That could be fun... and a nice change from all the nighttime storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Recent euro runs blast a strong line down through eastern Iowa during peak heating Wednesday. That could be fun... and a nice change from all the nighttime storms. Probably our best shot at severe this week. Tonight's action will probably crap out shortly after crossing I-35. Tomorrow's setup is very muddled due to tonight's convection. Wed has looked decent for the last 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Boundary is draped across the TC metro from the earlier MCS this morning. Might be a focal point for some nasty cells very shortly. Temp up to around 90 without any sun today. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Winds are backed in the twin cities region and atmosphere is prime with high helicity just to the north. Expect storms shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 556 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... NORTH CENTRAL MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 555 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WATKINS...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CLOUD... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES... BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... KIMBALL AROUND 605 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Was just about to say, possible TDS just north of Watkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Actually nevermind, large TDS went right through Watkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Watkins has about 1000 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Was there for one scan before this, and one after. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Definite damage in town, roofs off at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Western portions of St. Cloud metro could be in danger shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 From Meeker County Storm Chasers Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Litchfield, SW of Watkins was hit by that same storm, probably different tornado. Damage there also. 2 injuries reported so far in Watkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 MNC145-112330- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160711T2330Z/ STEARNS MN- 614 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY... AT 614 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CLOUD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: LUXEMBURG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Have seen this photo as well of the Kimball/Watkins tornado. Looks like a wedge at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Considering the speed and how close it is to St. Cloud, I'm really surprised a new warning hasn't been put up yet. edit: Beaten by seconds. http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ John Wetter is on the St. Cloud storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 WCCO just showed video of it, big wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Circulation appears to be strengthening again as it comes up on St. Cloud and its suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Confirmed large and dangerous 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Don't really see a TDS with it now though. You'd think you would with it coming into more densely populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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