Morris Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Every single GFS Ensemble member (21 total) has 2"+ rain from Ohio northeastward into PA and New England by next wk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Tomorrow could be active. So could Monday. Here's tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 It looks like tomorrow is the best chance this week, and that may depend heavily on how cloudy it is in the morning. Some guidance suggests Wednesday has a shot but to me the front looks to cross too early. The UKMET seems most aggressive with slow FROPA and storms exploding after 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks like tomorrow is the best chance this week, and that may depend heavily on how cloudy it is in the morning. Some guidance suggests Wednesday has a shot but to me the front looks to cross too early. The UKMET seems most aggressive with slow FROPA and storms exploding after 18Z. i like tomorrow. warm front with high PWATs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: i like tomorrow. warm front with high PWATs What time will this occur? And how far north will the warm front get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 4 hours ago, dmillz25 said: What time will this occur? And how far north will the warm front get? possibly one round in the morning with the wf and then another in the evening wow at the nam tomorrow night (ewr area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Thunderstorms into Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 7 hours ago, forkyfork said: possibly one round in the morning with the wf and then another in the evening wow at the nam tomorrow night (ewr area) Thank you. That's a nice looking sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 What happened to the rain with the warm front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 After the July deluge, August has been bone dry in the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 The SPC has placed much of our area in a "Slight Risk" for severe storms through tonight. https://t.co/LB8O8lDFFq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Morris said: After the July deluge, August has been bone dry in the first half. 1988 was like that but only drier...here on Staten Island we had a few good downpours recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 3 hours ago, uncle W said: 1988 was like that but only drier...here on Staten Island we had a few good downpours recently... Still just 0.90" for the month here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Decent looking line out in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for western areas. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0447.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 There's a mini-supercell in NE CT and a couple of spinners in the broken line back in PA. Hold tight. Could be an interesting afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 line is coming but that thing is moving pretty quick...15 minute heavy t storms likely and then its over is my prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: line is coming but that thing is moving pretty quick...15 minute heavy t storms likely and then its over is my prediction Looks pretty wimpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Looks pretty wimpy The bow segment on the PA/MD border looks interesting but otherwise yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Bust except for nw nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Pretty impressive light show. Frequent thunder, moderate rain right now. Winds are picking up. Southwest Morris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Bust except for nw nj Wow the southern action fell apart quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Looks like the south shore of L.I. misses out again. We've been bone dry here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Constant CTG strikes here in Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: Looks like the south shore of L.I. misses out again. We've been bone dry here lately. Part for the course when it comes to cold fronts. The ocean is a super stable storm killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 6 hours ago, doncat said: Still just 0.90" for the month here. 0.24" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Looks like city will get clipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 No lightning to speak of here but wind gust approached 40mph. Very little rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 the storms along the front...in western PA have several wind damage reports already. (trees down) but won't make it around here until midnight'ish. wonder how well they'll hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Frequent lightning to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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