forkyfork Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 let's keep this as a running thread for events like the new england forum next up is friday into saturday. models show a boundary overhead with high pwats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The 18z NAM had a wicked cell over the city tomorrow afternoon. Of course 0z won't have it. It was an isolated cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 models showing areas N of the city getting hit pretty hard later today, espeically the RGEM and HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Upton issued a flash flood watch for this afternoon. Mt holly as well for parts of jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Noticed Mt. Holly just did the same. Caught me a bit off guard but I welcome the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Noticed Mt. Holly just did the same. Caught me a bit off guard but I welcome the rain. Yeah they increased from 50% to 80%. Pretty high confidence for a heavy rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 6z NAM has 2.2" PWATs over the city at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 SBCAPE already around 2000 J/KG areawide. Shear is non existent. Good recipe for extremely slow moving thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 6z NAM has 2.2" PWATs over the city at 21z.If this is the wrong thread to ask in I apologize, however, I've been around here for a couple of years and never heard the term "PWATS" before (to my recollection). What does that mean?Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 If this is the wrong thread to ask in I apologize, however, I've been around here for a couple of years and never heard the term "PWATS" before (to my recollection). What does that mean? Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.I believe I understand now. Basically the forecasted virtual equivalent to actually checking a physical rain-catcher after an event?Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 SBCAPE already around 2000 J/KG areawide. Shear is non existent. Good recipe for extremely slow moving thunderstorms. We tend to see our best micro bursts during these setups. Also hail. Lots of cape is good for isolated but very severe events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I believe I understand now. Basically the forecasted virtual equivalent to actually checking a physical rain-catcher after an event? Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk No. It's how much water would have rained if the entire column of liquid over an area was squeezed out at any given moment. The higher the number, the more juicy the atmosphere and hence the more potential for flash flooding with good cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 ENJOY the sh@t backdoor wedge Friday evening through Sunday noon. It will be 63 Saturday with stratus and drizzle. It is coming! Saturday will be crappy day folks. CHECK the NAM. GFS is trending too. We are wedged in Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 NAM has a deluge for Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 ENJOY the sh@t backdoor wedge Friday evening through Sunday noon. It will be 63 Saturday with stratus and drizzle. It is coming! Saturday will be crappy day folks. CHECK the NAM. GFS is trending too. We are wedged in Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Dewpoint of 74 at ISP. Won't see it much higher than that in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Storms starting to pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Am I supposed to throw away all my tall tees or run out and buy more? I'm so confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Am I supposed to throw away all my tall tees or run out and buy more? I'm so confused ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Dewpoint of 74 at ISP. Won't see it much higher than that in the NE We had 80 before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 ????? Oh forget it. I've been following Michael#'s too much. Latest HRRR seems too agressive as it basically has a line of showers and storms running right through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Oh forget it. I've been following Michael#'s too much. Latest HRRR seems too agressive as it basically has a line of showers and storms running right through the city. Looking for a real deal derecho? That's the only thing that would surpass sandy for tree damage around here. I'm not talking Labor Day 98 but more like that one upstate (can't remember the date but back in the day) that had wide spread 100mph winds during full leaf out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Looking for a real deal derecho? That's the only thing that would surpass sandy for tree damage around here. I'm not talking Labor Day 98 but more like that one upstate (can't remember the date but back in the day) that had wide spread 100mph winds during full leaf out The same day. There were 2 separate derechos. The one upstate came earlier in the day I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The same day. There were 2 separate derechos. The one upstate came earlier in the day I believe Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Looking for a real deal derecho? That's the only thing that would surpass sandy for tree damage around here. I'm not talking Labor Day 98 but more like that one upstate (can't remember the date but back in the day) that had wide spread 100mph winds during full leaf out July 1995 was a bad one which was mostly in the Adirondacks and places like Watertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 July 1995 was a bad one which was mostly in the Adirondacks and places like Watertown http://www.dec.ny.gov/pubs/102798.html Thats the one I was thinking of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 No. It's how much water would have rained if the entire column of liquid over an area was squeezed out at any given moment. The higher the number, the more juicy the atmosphere and hence the more potential for flash flooding with good cells.Ahhhhh, I gotcha. Thanks!Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Pouring here. Some pretty potent cells around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 A line is almost forming in Jersey. heading for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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