Scott747 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Josh should be landing soon in Taiwan. Idea is to drive down to Taitung and reassess. I dont do facebook and will update here every so often when I talk with him.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Hope he gets there and has a safe chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 This is insane. Typhoon Nepartak rapidly intensified a couple of days ago and now is estimated to be 150 knot, Category 5 on the Saffir Simpson scale. It is headed toward Taiwan, which took two direct hits last year. 150 knots =173mph is one of the strongest tropical cyclones of all time. Note: for Typhoon Haiyan (2013) JTWC estimated Haiyan to have attained one-minute sustained winds of 315 km/h (195 mph). So this is not quite within 20mph of Haiyan's West-Pac record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 These storms always weaken on approach since the eastern side of the island due to the terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Pretty cool to see the evolution of the EWRC that took place yesterday. Core now larger as a result of the completed EWRC, so Josh should have more room for error with core punching. http://i.imgur.com/50ZDfao.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 It was a seamless erc. He got into Taitung a few hours ago. Headed N as far as Chenggong to scout out viable spots if needed. There is what appears to be a solid hotel in Changgong that he is going to check out along with a few of the other small towns on the way there. At this point though it's looking like Taitung as ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Outstanding Sat this AM http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_03_sector_04&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=48&loop_speed_ms=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 nbd, just a buoy reading 897mbhttp://po.oc.ntu.edu.tw/buoy/data1.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 nbd, just a buoy reading 897mb http://po.oc.ntu.edu.tw/buoy/data1.php check out the subsurface buoys surge of warm water to great depth http://po.oc.ntu.edu.tw/buoy/data1.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Wow, this storm is a beast. Local news was just covering it. http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I am slow to the party but does he still post here and have I not seen him on TWC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I am slow to the party but does he still post here and have I not seen him on TWC? sometimes, but is more active on FB he was on TWC this morning during the 9:50 tropical update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 Debating about a slight move to the N. Has a spot his comfortable with about 10 min away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Wind reports available in the impact zone: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/index_E.htm Storm is predicted to track very close to Ludao (offshore island). Click on "weather" to change display to other parameters such as rainfall. Convert m/s to mph in two steps ... m/s to km/h multiply by 3.6 (e.g. 30 m/s is 108 km/hr) km/h to mph multiply by 5/8 (close approx), (e.g. 30 m/s = 108 km/hr = 67.5 mph combined conversion is therefore to multiply by 2.25. fairly close and easy conversion to knots is to multiply by 2 (actual is about 2% higher). (e.g. 30 m/s is about 60 knots, closer to 61). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Satellite imagery http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/satellite/Sat_T.htm?type=0# Note that Taiwan Standard Time is 8h ahead of GMT (z) and at 18z the local time is 0200h Friday July 8th. A visible image will be available around the time of landfall presumably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I am estimating direct hit on Ludao island around 22z (0600h TST) and landfall about 30 miles or 50 km north of Taitung at about 01 to 02z or 0900-1000h TST. That is about halfway between Taitung and Chenggong to its north. The latest official track seems to run slightly south of my estimate with similar timing and would run just south of Taitung at landfall (a worst case scenario for that city) so I hope my estimate is better. The divergence is not large enough to have much implication for Ludao where any residents should be in most secure possible location not within 10 meters of sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Help me out is that meter/sec at 71.3 in Lanya at 965 mb http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46762.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Help me out is that meter/sec at 71.3 in Lanya at 965 mb http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46762.htm Yes, but the station is also on top of a hill, not exactly sure how high but prolly a couple hundred feet up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Yes, but the station is also on top of a hill, not exactly sure how high but prolly a couple hundred feet up 159mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Coastal road 20-30 miles northeast of Taitung gives you an idea what the coast is like in possible landfall zone. Had a picture but it won't upload. Looks like Taiwan version of Malibu coast anyway, palm trees, gentle rise from ocean, hills about 800 feet high covered in forest. Taitung city is built on a river delta plain and appears to be generally 10-15 meters above sea level so storm surge (if the track is further south as per JWC) might be an issue up the river and nearby but not as much generally speaking for the city center. However, I think they will have the off-land very strong westerly winds that are now hitting the southern island offshore. If my track verifies at least there are very few people in the possible storm surge and max wind zones, it is mostly rural with a few small villages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 159mph? Yeah, here ya go http://www.metric-conversions.org/speed/meters-per-second-to-miles-per-hour.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Yeah, here ya go http://www.metric-conversions.org/speed/meters-per-second-to-miles-per-hour.htm Thanks but I already knew that, just questioned the 71.3 m/s gusts reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Looks like Taitung will be in the eye or under the northern eyewall at landfall. http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/observe/radar/Data/HD_Radar/CV1_3600_201607080310.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 977 for Josh and slowly dropping. Another tight gradient. Staying in Taitung, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 It took a wobble due west in the past hour but may resume more northwest motion, still think the eye may come in a bit north of the city but two things, the eyewall has been considerably stronger on southern side past three hours (from radar) and the airport at Taitung is on the north side of the city so when we get its landfall reports, bear in mind that it is located about 5 miles north of the city. Unhelpfully, Ludao Island has stopped reporting new data. It looks to be set to spend some time in the eye soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 James Reynolds is streaming it live in Periscope, winds look as strong as any hurricane or typhoon footage I've ever seen (with the exception of that famous Hurricane Charley video) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 James Reynolds is streaming it live in Periscope, winds look as strong as any hurricane or typhoon footage I've ever seen (with the exception of that famous Hurricane Charley video) https://mobile.twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/751149756781514752 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Exceptional system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Current landfall is looking like Taitung city at about 2330z which would be 0730h local time. Note, I have been comparing satellite and radar, satellite has 0.1 deg westward displacement due to parallax, will tend to show landfall too early. Radar location of eye is about 50 miles east-south-east of Taitung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/751158878251823104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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