NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Cheaper to do them on other nights than the 4th so most towns here are the 1st 2nd or 3rd. The 1st was wiped out, last night was awesome here. Comes down to luck.If we had been Friday instead of Thursday it would have been a complete washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 18z nam bumped north has 2-3 for the entire metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 18z nam bumped north has 2-3 for the entire metro areaPrecip starting at what time about?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 00z NAM has first showers moving in around 7pm. Steady rain holds off till after 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Around 1.75" on the 00z NAM. JP zone just North of Rt 80 and into Westchester. Bullseye of 2"+ over LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 If the NAM verified 100% the fireworks would at least be dry but low clouds could limit visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 RGEM is way South and meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 GFS is almost a non event now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 GFS is almost a non event nowThe GFS is terrible with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Visible and current radar indicate this is going to have a tough time getting north of the Driscoll bridge, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Visible and current radar indicate this is going to have a tough time getting north of the Driscoll bridge, imho. Agree. NYC and north may be high and dry yet again. Yesterday's runs at 12z definitely had me concerned about yet another whiff south. Amazing persistence in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Partially explains why we have had relatively low humidity and a nice diurnal temp spread. I am going to miss it if this heat ridge pans out. The confluence to our north/north east is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Euro way south last night has about .25 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 This is amazing lol. You just have to laugh at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Euro op has been pretty bad with the convection this season and best qpf placement. Pretty crazy changes in a 24 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 You started a thread. You killed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Both the 06z and 12z NAM's are 1"+ for everyone. The 06z RGEM came way North. 1"+ for Southern parts of the city and 2-3" for most of coastal NJ. 09z SREF was wetter. 1"+ for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 12z Nam is .25"-.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 12z Nam is .25"-.50".Where are you looking at? On Tropical Tidbits it shows more than that for pretty much everyone on this board. Even your location looks to be around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 mob1, on 04 Jul 2016 - 11:00 AM, said:mob1, on 04 Jul 2016 - 11:00 AM, said:mob1, on 04 Jul 2016 - 11:00 AM, said:Where are you looking at? On Tropical Tidbits it shows more than that for pretty much everyone on this board. Correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 12Z RGEM really backs off from 06Z. Looks like it went to the drier 0z Euro. Yeah I can't really buy the nam when it's all alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 today's clear skies are a sign this will go south imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Fireworks time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 The wetter models like the 06z RGEM have the area over PA blowing up after the initial convection you see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 12z GFS made a significant jump North. 1-2" for all of Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 GFS has 0.4-0.6" for the city. GGEM is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Fireworks time The hrrr had been running too early. It was showing rain here by 22-23z on some runs early today. Now it's come more around to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Euro bumps north and now has the most rain for NYC and LI .75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Euro has the rain coming in at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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