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7/4-7/5 Heavy Elevated Convection Discussion/OBS


bluewave

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  On 7/4/2016 at 5:28 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The hrrr had been running too early. It was showing rain here by 22-23z on some runs early today. Now it's come more around to the other models

What are you talking about? 17z HRRR has it raining in the city by 02z.
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  On 7/4/2016 at 6:49 PM, NJwx85 said:

What are you talking about? 17z HRRR has it raining in the city by 02z.

That leading edge low contour stuff usually is overdone. Also I expect we see some resistance from the confluence as we are seeing a bit with the cloud shield right now

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  On 7/4/2016 at 7:22 PM, NJwx85 said:

Completely clouded over here the last hour but the sun is still making it through for now.

Similar here now. Very thin clouds just made it over head but most wouldn't notice as the sun is still coming through. I've been glancing at the visible all day and the funny thing is the cloud deck actually looks a bit further south and west now than it did at 11AM. Made for a great day.
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Jet entrance region shifting north today on the 12-18z guidance today gives some

hope for a much needed soaking to around NYC and Long Island. Near record

PWATS for early July and the potential for training may boost rainfall totals.

 

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