bluewave Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 We're seeing more severe threats this summer than last summer for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 You started a thread. You killed it. On 7/1, we only got a thread on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 None of these threads are meant to be IMBY specific. It just means that the possibility of heavy rains leading to flash flooding and possible severe could occur in the Philly or NYC Metro NWS forecast zones. The science just isn't there to pin it down to something more specific before we get to the range of the meso models like HRRR. We have a crossover of posters between Philly and NYC forums. It was sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 it happens every summer...some places see a deluge while 50 miles away gets a trace...the other night NW Jersey got clobbered while the city got less than an inch...the battle zone between the dry nw flow and the tropical air to the south has to shift a little more northward...sooner or later the tropical air will win out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 It was sarcastic.Today is July 3rd, not first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 That's OK. You never really know the exact jackpot spots ahead of time when convection is involved. But we have had active events over the years with late night/early morning lows and warm fronts. The Euro has a 4.58" max south of Long Island, but that could change in later runs. So some spots coulld get a very heavy dump of rain and flood potential. CAPE is low but shear and helicity is high. So there could possibly be isolated to a few severe reports right where the warm front and low eventually tracks. CAPE is only low because of timing. Need to get it here by 00z or shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Today is July 3rd, not first. He was referring to Friday's event. A thread was created that day so no jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 He was referring to Friday's event. A thread was created that day so no jinxFriday's threat kind of snuck up on us. I can see this correcting back South and hitting more towards SNJ. MCS's usually move SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 The euro at 00z was ridiculous with the amount of rain tomorrow night. 2-4 inches in the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 The euro at 00z was ridiculous with the amount of rain tomorrow night. 2-4 inches in the metro area 06z GFS bumped north and has the most rain in the sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 CAPE is only low because of timing. Need to get it here by 00z or shortly after. If it's a true MCS they are usually stronger at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Friday's threat kind of snuck up on us. I can see this correcting back South and hitting more towards SNJ. MCS's usually move SE. The flow isn't pointed SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Nam is not as wet as the 00z euro but has about 2 inches for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Gfs not impressive at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 RGEM similar to Euro with 3-4" max south of Long Island. rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_17.png Hope that bumps North 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 The 00z UKMET was 2-3" areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 GGEM 2+ for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Heavy stratiform rain for the fireworks. Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 south trend evident in today's 12z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Euro not as wet as 00z and bumped south a bit. .75-1.00 for the area. 1.00+ central nj and LI. Less by Brian6968)8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Euro not as wet as 00z and bumped south a bit. .75-1.00 for the area. 1.00+ central nj and LI. Less by Brian6968)8 same ol song and dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 same ol song and dance.Timeframe more importantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 We had our fireworks Thursday night under prestine conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 south trend evident in today's 12z runs....One run is not a trend and the small bump today is just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 I doubt this trends south and likely to arrive quicker than projected. Looks like scattered showers/storms between 5 - 8 then more widespread. Not good those hoping for a nice fourth of July. those rooting for a drenching may be in business. Just a horrible time for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 We had our fireworks Thursday night under prestine conditions.Well isn't that special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Well isn't that special.Well we were lucky this year. 3 of the last 5 years were rained out and two years ago the rain date was rained out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 One run is not a trend and the small bump today is just noise. fair point, however every model went south some--if it were just noise you'd see a few bump north 25 miles and a few bump south. Tonight's 0z will tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 Well we were lucky this year. 3 of the last 5 years were rained out and two years ago the rain date was rained out too. Cheaper to do them on other nights than the 4th so most towns here are the 1st 2nd or 3rd. The 1st was wiped out, last night was awesome here. Comes down to luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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