Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 For days it was looking like tonight we would have a raging MCS rolling through the corn belt with widespread high-end severe potential. Figured the morning garbage could put a dent in the main setup, but never thought it would totally destroy it completely. What a wussy little setup this turned out to be. Could end up being good news for the MI/IN/OH peeps, since a raging MCS tonight main have screwed up tomorrow's setup out east. Yeah, skies look to be fairly clear out to the west and the current activity should be out of here by sunrinse. Mid-level lapse rates also look to be half-way decent for once, so if activity is able to break through the cap and organize, we could finally see severe action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Meanwhile 0.15 total at DTW. Compare that with DET so far this hour. KDET 080542Z 04013G21KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC018 21/19 A2984 RMK AO2 P0173 T02060194 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 For days it was looking like tonight we would have a raging MCS rolling through the corn belt with widespread high-end severe potential. Figured the morning garbage could put a dent in the main setup, but never thought it would totally destroy it completely. What a wussy little setup this turned out to be. Could end up being good news for the MI/IN/OH peeps, since a raging MCS tonight main have screwed up tomorrow's setup out east. Yep, IWX did say if no real widespread convection tonight tomorrow could be interesting, and lo and behold no MCS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Compare that with DET so far this hour. KDET 080542Z 04013G21KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC018 21/19 A2984 RMK AO2 P0173 T02060194 And yet, no flood advisory. Still, more heavy rain is expected/ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like 8 mile is getting pounded good with rain. Yeah it sucks there was no MCS to track tonight back this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Jesus, might need flash flood warning for this KDET 080553Z 04005KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN006 OVC010 21/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP112 P0224 60231 T02060194 10289 20206 53016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Jesus, might need flash flood warning for this KDET 080553Z 04005KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN006 OVC010 21/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP112 P0224 60231 T02060194 10289 20206 53016 Heaviest it's been all night. I'm tempted to call into DTX to ask them what's going on, but trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 All of this rain will also help the cause as far as preventing too much dry air from mixing down to the surface once we do break into the dry slot tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 New Day 1, still a slight but they might go Enhanced in time ..CNTRL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS LARGELY RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LOCATIONS AND POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR WHICH MAY LEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS. NONETHELESS...A RESERVOIR OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OH VALLEY IS FORECAST SLOWLY ADVECT NEWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICH IN WAKE OF A TSTM CLUSTER EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER NRN LOWER MICH TO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL LOWER MICH SWWD INTO W-CNTRL INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO YIELD SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MICH WITH ISOLD STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE FARTHER SW IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS/. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO MAY BE GREATEST NEAR AND N OF WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES LOCATED OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF A WIND-DAMAGE RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ISOLD STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE APPRECIABLY STRONG WIND FIELDS THAT WOULD ACT TO ORGANIZE MULTICELLS. A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 For those of us further west who are now out of the action, it's looking like our next decent shot for severe arrives Tue, and especially Wed next week. Both GFS and Euro show nice mid-upper level energy streaking through Wed-Wed night above a large area of potential strong instability. Long way to go, but that's about all that's worth looking at, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 That is crazy. I'm going to assume I-94 on the east side has to be under water considering how easy that trench floods. It looks like we should get a little more rain here to the southwest, which is better than nothing. Beggars cant be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 New Day 1, still a slight but they might go Enhanced in time ..CNTRL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS LARGELY RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LOCATIONS AND POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR WHICH MAY LEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS. NONETHELESS...A RESERVOIR OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OH VALLEY IS FORECAST SLOWLY ADVECT NEWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICH IN WAKE OF A TSTM CLUSTER EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER NRN LOWER MICH TO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL LOWER MICH SWWD INTO W-CNTRL INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO YIELD SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MICH WITH ISOLD STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE FARTHER SW IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS/. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO MAY BE GREATEST NEAR AND N OF WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES LOCATED OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF A WIND-DAMAGE RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ISOLD STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE APPRECIABLY STRONG WIND FIELDS THAT WOULD ACT TO ORGANIZE MULTICELLS. A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 That is crazy. I'm going to assume I-94 on the east side has to be under water considering how easy that trench floods. It looks like we should get a little more rain here to the southwest, which is better than nothing. Beggars cant be choosers. We do have one more shot at action tomorrow. But after that, it's back into the dry / sunny pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Wow, 0.00" here pavement wasn't even fully damp. Like a half mile to my north got 1.5 inches and south got crushed. Epic screw hole over MBY. Oh well, had a nice show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 We do have one more shot at action tomorrow. But after that, it's back into the dry / sunny pattern. Well, until next Wed when it looks we could have another shot at an MCS.Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 They definitely nailed it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Wow, 0.00" here pavement wasn't even fully damp. Like a half mile to my north got 1.5 inches and south got crushed. Epic screw hole over MBY. Oh well, had a nice show. It was feast or famine today for sure. I'm sitting at maybe a tenth of an inch generously, while 20 miles away nearly 3" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Add .65" more to the till KDET 080627Z 07008KT 5SM -RA BR FEW009 BKN028 OVC037 19/19 A2986 RMK AO2 P0065 T01940194 Pushing near 3" at DET. Radar says I have that already in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 3"+ of rain here in 2 hours is pretty impressive. And it's crazy to think many of the SW suburbs only saw enough to dampen the ground and leave small puddles. Of course, GRR placed one of their counties under a Flood Warning for the same amount of rain in the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Flood Warning finally issued. Numerous freeways are experiencing floodng. BTW, starting off with clear skies as the sun rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Fairly notable (albeit odd) change to the SPC day 1 outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 And it begins... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGMIC133-081445-/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0016.160708T1344Z-160708T1445Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI944 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...OSCEOLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT* AT 943 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LUTHER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAILDAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECTWIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...MARION AROUND 1030 AM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GIBOSCORNERS...TUSTIN...DIGHTON...HERSEY...HIGHLAND...PARKLAKE...INA...LE ROY... PISGAH HEIGHTS AND ASHTON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDYSTRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.&&LAT...LON 4416 8509 4382 8509 4382 8556 4417 8556TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 265DEG 30KT 4403 8567HAIL...1.75INWIND...60MPH$TJT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 wonder if we pop a quick shower before drying out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0919 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGANCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 081419Z - 081615ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHTHUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDEDWITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF ACOLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA SOUTHWARDTHROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS WILL MAINLYAFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH CONTINUEDHEATING...INCREASING DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AND WITH DEWPOINTSIN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISMARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A MIX OF MULTICELL CLUSTERSAND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BEDAMAGING WINDS DUE IN PART TO WATER LOADING AFFECTS WITH PW VALUESNOTED IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW80S...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE...FURTHER SUPPORTINGDOWNBURST POTENTIAL. STORMS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS MORNINGBEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPERSHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND EASTWARD SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE AWATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TIMING ISUNCERTAIN AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/08/2016ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...LAT...LON 45798448 45668404 45358335 44958316 44538318 4417833543658391 43378477 43388614 43668655 44218655 4463865044948632 45458586 45708563 45808483 45798448 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0908 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...NRN KY...SWRN OHCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 081408Z - 081515ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALLHAIL WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE IND/OH/KY BORDER REGION OVER THE NEXTFEW HOURS.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF THURSDAY NIGHT MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERNKS/WRN MO HAVE SPREAD INTO SERN IL/SRN IND/NWRN KY. LONGERREFLECTIVITY LOOPS SUGGEST A WEAK MCV IS LOCATED NW OF EVV AND THISMAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR UPWARD EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIONIMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS HAS YET TODESTABILIZE APPRECIABLY ALONG THE OH RIVER CORRIDOR...BACKGROUNDSUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE. SMALLTHUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THEY PROPAGATETOWARD THE IND/OH/KY BORDER REGION.WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW...DARROW/THOMPSON.. 07/08/2016ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LAT...LON 39118670 39508467 38588403 37858550 38168682 39118670 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Hope there arent many at the dunes today * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... LEELANAU COUNTY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT* AT 1033 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF SLEEPING BEAR POINT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Man they might need to up that warning too, GR2 has a hail designator of 5" on it. Almost always does that mean at least baseball sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Will it finally be our turn? The first watch of the season issued for Northern Lower MI until 6pm. SEL4URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1050 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFNORTHERN LOWER MICHIGANLAKE HURONLAKE MICHIGAN* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1050 AM UNTIL600 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLESUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVEEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THESTORM ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OFPRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EASTNORTHEAST OF PELLSTON MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OFHOUGHTON LAKE MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCHSEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.&&AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORMMOTION VECTOR 27030....THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 All CAMs show several helicity streaks across the state, I would watch once things warm up if we don't get some tornadoes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 All CAMs show several helicity streaks across the state, I would watch once things warm up if we don't get some tornadoes today. Directional shear is forecasted to decrease as the day progresses with the shortwave unraveling. So the transition to a squall line should happen fairly quickly (per the Hi-Res models). But yeah, things could get dicey for a little bit with these supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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