hlcater Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 DVN thinks we destabilize in their 2 am add. I'm gonna have to disagree. That MCS in MO is really slowing the process down, significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 However, I have learned to a certain degree that relying on the HRRR and 4k NAM simulated radar data can be a bit deceiving...If the cams aren't initializing the precip and Obs right, or screwing up the first couple hours, I toss. Today is a toss the cam day, just look at the SPC outlook, they even commented on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 the HRRR is initiating just fine and has nothing region wide later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Decaying line of storms moving through shortly, will limit any potential later on. Champaign has been trimmed out of ENH risk, that was pushed south and southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 the HRRR is initiating just fine and has nothing region wide later Milwaukee NWS office could use you. Nice lake breeze out there at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Tomorrow is pretty tricky as far as severe weather potential locally. While some form of convection is pretty much a lock tomorrow morning (along the warm front), we could see supercells re-develop along the surface trough as well tomorrow afternoon/evening depending on the extent of mid-level drying. Both the 12z NAM and GFS show this possibility, while the 00z NAM and GFS showed virtually zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 thick overcast with MCV due to arrive overhead near peak heating today looking like a total loss Leaning that way. Not counting on much behind the ongoing activity in western IL so the only hope would be if that stuff intensifies, but it's not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Day 1s late Expecting lots of cuts to outlooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 thick overcast with MCV due to arrive overhead near peak heating today looking like a total loss Thinking so too. Thick low clouds here. Dew point is high, but no sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 The Illinois stuff is weakening. Barely going to get any rain from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The Illinois stuff is weakening. Barely going to get any rain from it. The latest NMM and ARW are still fairly bullish with strong convection re-developing over the next few hours. It also has a fairly good handle on the current activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 SPC thinks redevelopment could still happen, purged some of the Enhanced ..UPR MS VLY TO CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN WAKE OF SUBSTANTIAL SQLN MCS THAT CROSSED THE REGION OVNGT...MOIST/SSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW AND SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS AFTN/EVE STM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS UPR TROUGH. THIS DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY WILL OCCUR FROM SW MN/FAR ERN SD SSW INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE ENHANCED IN FAR ERN NEB NEAR INTERSECTION OF MCS OUTFLOW BNDRY WITH FRONT. 40-50 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH AND LIGHT BUT BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. THE CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/WRN IA SWD INTO MO...WHERE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED SWLY LLJ WILL TAP DEEP EML NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN A WEAKENED STATE MAY REACH PARTS OF WI/IL EARLY FRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 The latest NMM and ARW are still fairly bullish with strong convection re-developing over the next few hours. It also has a fairly good handle on the current activity. The current activity looks farther east than where those models had it at this point, which is important in that it affects how much destabilization takes place farther east out ahead. Would like to be wrong but just not feeling it, at least around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Tomorrow is pretty tricky as far as severe weather potential locally. While some form of convection is pretty much a lock tomorrow morning (along the warm front), we could see supercells re-develop along the surface trough as well tomorrow afternoon/evening depending on the extent of mid-level drying. Both the 12z NAM and GFS show this possibility, while the 00z NAM and GFS showed virtually zilch. And in light of the above post, the SPC has expanded the day 2 slight risk area NW to include much of Lower MI and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 The Illinois stuff is weakening. Barely going to get any rain from it. Maybe nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 keep us posted You know I'm secretly rooting for getting through this stretch with only 1 significant rain. Gotta keep the drought prospects alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 that's where i thought you were going with these play by play shower updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Going from marginal to enhanced in one outlook has me amped up for today now near Omaha. These night time severe storms the past few nights have been depressing since I want to see some amazing structure during the day IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 May not amount to much but we'll see what happens with the small arc of showers/storms that went up over far western IL on west periphery of the MCV. There is clearing on visible satellite working into the SW LOT CWA. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I wonder what happened to the NSSL-WRF. That was kind of helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 May not amount to much but we'll see what happens with the small arc of showers/storms that went up over far western IL on west periphery of the MCV. There is clearing on visible satellite working into the SW LOT CWA. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Took all day to clear but we finally did about 2PM, temps and dews responded accordingly sitting at 83/74 right now. HRRR showing are Michigan peeps some much needed love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Weak sauce garden showers headed this general direction. If it survives. Feels pretty stable outside. 19z HRRR insists on a line blowing thru later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Took all day to clear but we finally did about 2PM, temps and dews responded accordingly sitting at 83/74 right now. HRRR showing are Michigan peeps some much needed love. NMM and ARW are also showing a band of 1-4" of rain over the city with training t'storms around Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 yeah, not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Now that storms are firing in nw IA with our first tor warning of the afternoon in that region it will be interesting to see what happens as they move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 Some crapvection has gotten going in the western LOT cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 That lone severe storm between Sioux City and Omaha is laying down a pretty clear OFB. Will be interesting to watch as the cold front gets closer to it. Seems like it wants to rotate but not there yet. On a side note: ISCN has their live stream going at times. http://www.iowachase.com/live/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Very disappointed with how this setup evolved. Pretty good synoptic setup for July but got way too messy. Happens sometimes. At least Tuesday night's setup over-performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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