Geos Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 86/67 here with full sun. Some models have some pop up cells in about 3-4 hours. It feels like the atmosphere is recharging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Very solid (and somewhat unexpected) downpour. Everything's nice and soaked. Thunder is finally happening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 DTX is really bullish with respect with severe weather potential both tomorrow and Friday. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 End of the HRRR has this racing eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 End of the HRRR has this racing eastward HRRRMW_prec_radar_015.png 17z HRRRx which only went out to 12hrs also had it running right along the MN/IA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looking at DTX's radar, it's interesting to see the outflow boundaries from the storms move NW. You can sort of see the effects of this with the cell on the lower east side of the city, as it's been pouring in that area for nearly 45 minutes now as it keeps backbuilding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looking at DTX's radar, it's interesting to see the outflow boundaries from the storms move NW. You can sort of see the effects of this with the cell on the lower east side of the city, as it's been pouring in that area for nearly 45 minutes now as it keeps backbuilding. Looks like 15 mins of downpour at my house, must have just missed that leaving for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 From the way DTX is talking, the SPC Day 2 for Friday is going to look drastically different, seeing how there only in General Thunder right now The late arrival of this forcing will allow ample time for diurnalheating to build moderate instability across portions of theforecast area. The sfc front, expected to bisect the forecast areaThurs morning, will attempt to shift north of the I-69 corridor,although northeast flow off Lake Huron will inhibit it from liftingnorth of the forecast area. Southerly flow south of the boundary anddaytime heating will likely drive max temps over 90, with sfcdewpoints making a run at 70. This would support 0-1KM ML Cape onthe order of 2000-2500 J/kg south of the sfc front. With someenhancement to the mid level flow expected in the vicinity of theMCV, there is a chance for strong to severe tstms late in the day.Excellent moisture transport ahead of the MCV is expected to causesome moisture pooling along/north of the low level barocliniczone/sfc front across srn and cntrl lower Mi. With precip waterforecast to exceed 2 in, precipitation efficiency will be quite goodand suggests a risk for some high intensity rainfall. Convectivetrends later into Thus evening/night carries a good deal ofuncertainty. There is the potential for additional convectivedevelopment, especially if an e-w low level boundary is maintained,as there will be an increase in low level southwest flow during thenight. So there is actually a chance that some locals may see overan inch of convective rainfall.Amplification of a mid level trough axis forecast to cross thenorthern Great Lakes Friday continues to be shown with goodconsistency among the 12Z model suite. The associated mid levelheight falls and strengthening low level sw flow will act to driveremnant outflow boundaries from Thurs night convection backnorthward into Se Mi on Friday. The extent of convection Thurs nightwill be key in how far south the remnant outflow is positioned byFri morning, which in turn will be key in how far north into theforecast area the warm sector will be located by peak Fri heating.The 12Z model suite all suggest that the instability axis will bedriven northward into Se Mi. The potential instability, and verygood cape density per model soundings, combined with an increase indeep layer shear to 40 to 50 knots, will pose a formidable severeweather risk late Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 DVN mentioning big-time wind potential tomorrow night if we can destabilize tomorrow after the morning stuff moves out. Bit of their AFD... All severe wx modes possible Thu evening, but damagingstraight line winds and flooding rain/intense rainfall rates will beprimary concerns. With the projected shear and thermodynamics, abowing storm segment with llvl cold pool mechanics could producedownward wind bursts of 70 to 80 mph. Again, much will depend onafternoon recovery/CAPE build up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 Some tiny cells have popped near Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Some tiny cells have popped near Kankakee. I can see them to my south. Decent tops. Cloud cover came in over most of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 17z HRRRx which only went out to 12hrs also had it running right along the MN/IA border Latest run takes it farther north, skirting by the LOT cwa. We'll see. Sorry for the extreme board slowness guys. Hopefully it gets better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Twin Cities doubleheader tomorrow? The 18z 4k NAM and the latest runs of the HRRR are inching the morning MCS further north. Not convinced on either just yet, but several ingredients appear to be in place for a partial repeat of yesterday. Instability gonna pop if the morning line moves as planned. Tomorrow should be a fun day for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Nice glimpse at the towers going up in Iowa as the sun sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 NAM and other CAMs look pretty messy regarding tomorrow. All over the place with instability, convective evolution, and also screwy with the sub H8 wind fields. New GFS continues to look very potent, although it's totally underdoing the ongoing convection this evening, and basically leaves the instability axis untouched through tomorrow afternoon. Really shows how potent this setup would be if we didn't have all this ongoing/festering convection and associated cloudiness to deal with. The overall synoptic setup for tomorrow is really good, but with so much ongoing convective crap it may take a big bite out of the potential. Gonna have to wait till tomorrow morning to see what we have to work with regarding ongoing convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 may be an early afternoon show for chicago area, based on that mcv in southeast iowa coming overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 may be an early afternoon show for chicago area, based on that mcv in southeast iowa coming overhead. doubt we have time to destabilize before it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 we do based on the 12z sounding data and clearing ahead of it. will be close tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I think that current svr line near St. Louis might progress more eastward than se as SPC thinks.per radar motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 SPC just took an axe to the Iowa potential today due to the big MCS down south clearing the region, although there's still a chance. It would certainly help if the Missouri convection vanished by noon. WHILE BAND OFSTG-SVR TSTMS STILL APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER MIDWESTTODAY...ITS INTENSITY...LONGEVITY AND SRN EXTENT ARE MORE IN DOUBTNOW THAN IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK PACKAGE. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE DIALED BACK TO 15%/SLGT UNCONDITIONAL RISK ACROSS THISREGION...ACKNOWLEDGING THAT LOCALIZED CONCENTRATION OR CORRIDOR OFDAMAGING-GUST RISK MAY STILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE WITHIN MN OR NRN IALATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 And the new meso discussion thinks the northern portion of the line will weaken due to a stout cap over central IL eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 we do based on the 12z sounding data and clearing ahead of it. will be close tho. it doesn't even look close, it looks like the worst possible location for an MCV at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Yeah that complex in MO is gonna bust the day. Most we can hope for are some rouge storms from MN down to N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The northern part of the in IL MCS looks like it's trying to propogate NE. Wonder what'll happen with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Latest 4k nam and HRRR both show little if anything in Iowa later. The day 2 and 3 severe outlooks can be almost useless when everything is dependent on what happens the previous day/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Yeah today is an absolute mess. Things may still happen here later today, but that is highly dependent on how much sun we get. Skies are finally clearing now. Let's see if we get the heating before the wave in the Dakotas gets here. The latest HRRR looks decent but the 4k NAM shows a dying line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 However, I have learned to a certain degree that relying on the HRRR and 4k NAM simulated radar data can be a bit deceiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 thick overcast with MCV due to arrive overhead near peak heating today looking like a total loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 However, I have learned to a certain degree that relying on the HRRR and 4k NAM simulated radar data can be a bit deceiving... Just looking for trends and a general idea. So many factors at play today. The cams are a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Just looking for trends and a general idea. So many factors at play today. The cams are a hot mess. Ah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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