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July 5-8 Severe/Heavy Rain Possibilities


Hoosier

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lost it in my part of St Paul from 630/645 to ~115 this morning. a 2-3" branch was down near my apt as well as several 1" ones. but south of me by ~1-2 miles near Front and Rice they had a 6" bough take down some power lines. and 67mph at Holman Field near downtown was impressive (~1-2 miles south of Front/Rice, like 3 from my place).

 

I also periscoped what I could for about 40-45 mins last night, and it should be available for replay.

 

Please post it here if you can.

 

It would be nice to get a visual reminder of what a severe t'storm is like. 

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There's some minor wind damage here, some branches down mostly. Looks like round 2 could be coming tonight for parks of the area, as sun is already breaking out north of I-80

 

Full sun here in the south burbs just north of I-80 for the better part of an hour. 

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HRRR with very little redevelopment in northern Illinois later. 

 

Not sure what's going to happen.

 

it's playing catchup

 

best guess is we see redevelopment over southern DVN push east along and south of the I80 corridor

 

definitely a lot of sun over the area

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0.46" of rain here this morning. Was hoping for a little more, but at least this complex didn't dry out like several others had. 

Feeling pretty unstable out there again now. 82/67 currently.

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it's playing catchup

 

best guess is we see redevelopment over southern DVN push east along and south of the I80 corridor

 

definitely a lot of sun over the area

 

 

I went back over the past 6-7 runs and if anything, it looks like it has trended worse with convective coverage later. 

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could be worse

 

d13_fill.gif

Overdone by a wide margin, you even said yourself all the mesoscale models have tomorrow's stuff sw of us, and the risk area for Friday is already south of us... It's just what it is, a MI screw job by any means possible.

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Any chance that MCS in MO could reach the Chicago area later? I know it's not depicted on any models but just based on radar trends. Models seem to have not been handling that area the best

Moving ESE, I would say probably not unless the northern end of the line grows more.

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I see models are backing off the QPF for here through Friday, just incredible how things are finding a way to completely miss MI. Getting painfully bad.

 

 

This flat ridging probably doesn't help.  Something higher amplitude/more capping would've forced things farther north.

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