Geos Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looking forward to the rain and storms later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Sky is lighting up like the 4th of July right now. Good luck down there. Looks like you're in for a bumpy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looking forward to the rain and storms later tonight. Definitely need the rain .03" in the past two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Thursday looking pretty impressive on the 00z NAM 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Definitely need the rain .03" in the past two weeks 0.11" of rain here since 6/15. Burned up lawns are plentiful. Looking like about 4am before it gets in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 Watch out for northern IL west of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looking forward to the rain and storms later tonight. Going to sleep with thunderstorms/rain outside is the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 Thursday looking pretty impressive on the 00z NAM 12. Indeed. I'd say explosive and would anticipate SPC to ratchet things up if anything like that continues to be modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Indeed. I'd say explosive and would anticipate SPC to ratchet things up if anything like that continues to be modeled. Yeah, the zone is quite large too with a warm front in the area and a belt of westerlies riding along it enhancing shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 It has been a couplet-palooza with the MCS thus far. Wouldn't be surprised if numerous tors are found if surveys are conducted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 It has been a couplet-palooza with the MCS thus far. Wouldn't be surprised if numerous tors are found if surveys are conducted. Yeah I see at least 4 currently, not sure why La Crosse isn't warning for them, especially considering they are pretty decent couplets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yeah, the 0Z NAM for Thursday Night has some near or at PDS TOR soundings in Southern MI/ Northern IN/ Northwest OH, and more severe weather Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Decided to go a little north of Omaha/Council Bluffs and at least watch the severe storm go by north of here. Structure is amazing. Start getting rained on and realize the outflow from it seems to have broken a cap or been the trigger needed to light up the atmosphere around Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Was fun watching it come through. I probably stood out for the first 5 minutes before the wind/rain was starting to soak me. The airport (just north of me) reported 68 mph... Very nice light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 New GFS continues to look very potent for Iowa into southern WI/northern IL for later Thu/Thu evening. Fairly similar to what it was showing with it's 12z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 I know we all have opinions of him but Reed Timmer is calling the main show a Derecho now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 I know we all have opinions of him but Reed Timmer is calling the main show a Derecho now.Lol he literally posted "DERECHO!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 This line is hauling now. Probably a decent chance of a new watch box soon or at least LOT locally extending it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Unwarned notch tightening up near Arena, WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yeah I don't see this line weakening very much anytime soon. Could be a decent event for northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 Still 83/79 in Des Moines at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 There is so much lightning it looks like day. Storms are far enough away that thunder is nothing more than a deep, dull roar in the distance. But the amount of lightning is mildly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 COD radar sure picked a rotten time to suddenly stop updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 What is up with the current position of the warnings out in Wisconsin now? Seems off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yeah I don't see this line weakening very much anytime soon. Could be a decent event for northern IL Starting to weaken a bit, echo tops aren't as high as an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Starting to weaken a bit, echo tops aren't as high as an hour ago.Yeah and it generally looks a bit more disorganized now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looks like the line is a couple hour ahead of schedule. May be here just after 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 D2 ENH. Mentions tornado threat along the WF with supercells capable of all hazards out W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Seeing some flashes to the north now. Should get some pretty good downpours in an hour or so. Severe not out of the question, but thinking mostly heavy rain potential this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Disco for above day 2 map. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN...CENTRAL AND NRN IA EAST INTO SRN WI/NWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS EAST TO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ...SYNOPSIS... A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FROM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY...EMBEDDED IN MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF IA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL LIKELY EXTEND EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY OR LOWER GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON THURSDAY. ...EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS IA/SOUTHERN MN EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS FROM WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS...PLUS DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL LOCATIONS/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMONG LATEST GUIDANCE...CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS AVERAGING IN THE 70S/ COUPLED WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST ACROSS IA/SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING INITIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS AND COMBINES WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO REDUCE CINH. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPSCALE GROWTH WITH TIME SHOULD RESULT IN AN EAST/SOUTHEAST-MOVING FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER MN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER HOWEVER WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND RISK DURING THE DAY/EVENING. FARTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COMPOSITE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PROVIDE AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SOME RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ..BUNTING.. 07/06/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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