HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like it's gonna be an interesting day, turns out the SPC didn't even need to trim the Slight risk up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 All CAMs show several helicity streaks across the state, I would watch once things warm up if we don't get some tornadoes today. Directional shear is forecasted to decrease as the day progresses with the shortwave unraveling. So the transition to a squall line should happen fairly quickly (per the Hi-Res models). But yeah, things could get dicey for a little bit with these supercells. But to your point, I will say the latest HRRR is a little concerning (as far as the shortwave unraveling more slowly than progged). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Directional shear is forecasted to decrease as the day progresses with the shortwave unraveling. So the transition to a squall line should happen fairly quickly (per the Hi-Res models). But yeah, things could get dicey for a little bit with these supercells. There should still be sufficient speed shear even as the winds near surface veer later on. Forecast effective shear on the mesoanalysis show this for the next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Also added variable, I am about to leave for Toronto so you have me not being in the area as an added storm bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 CU field trying to get going over NE IL, visible sat looks good enough for MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Latest update from DTX... 000FXUS63 KDTX 081535AFDDTXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI1135 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016.UPDATE...A volatile severe weather scenario is setting up over lowerMichigan for the afternoon into early evening. Convection isalready off to a strong start in northern lower Michigan wherefavorable atmospheric conditions are just beginning to overlap.The storm environment will become even more favorable over centraland southern lower Michigan during early afternoon drivenprimarily by the strong upper low for early July and theassociated cold front that will move through the region. Latemorning mesoanalysis indicates a ridge of MLCAPE exceeding 2000J/KG extending northward from Illinois ahead of the cold front.The upper low will then provide a mostly unidirectional windprofile with near 50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, mid level lapserates steepening toward 7 C/KM, and strong negative buoyancy belowcloud base suggested by dry air in WV imagery. Model forecastsoundings indicate freezing level also lowering into the 11-12 kftrange which will be more favorable for large hail withincreasingly large cape density in the mid levels. Expectbuoyancy/shear interaction to produce discrete supercell modeinitially where strongly rotating updrafts/deep mesocyclones willsupport both large hail possibly greater than golf ball size andtornado potential. Transition to linear mode later in the day willalso support damaging wind exceeding 60 mph. At this point, stormcoverage is expected to be more numerous in the Tri Cities tonorthern Thumb region down to about the I-69 corridor but withcoverage still generously scattered farther south through metroDetroit. Important to note that all storms will have similarsevere potential over all of SE Michigan regardless of coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 CU field trying to get going over NE IL, visible sat looks good enough for MI Yeah there's some pretty good towers going up already. Especially just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 looks like we're getting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Last night's storms really screwed up the mixing heights today. It shows on the SPC mesoanalysis page. Despite plenty of morning sun, we're just not reaching 80*F at noon. Will need a hell of a rally to make it to 90*F, at least before the storms get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Severe T'Storm Watch just issued for most of Southern MI until 8pm. EDIT: First watch box of the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Something is going to pop pretty quickly. Looking dark just to the north. Edit: Now the sun is back out. One little cell over the lake and some instability storms further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Enhanced Risk introduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Enhanced Risk introduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 After further review, today isn't hardly a shabby setup. It's almost like a poor man's 1997 redux in terms of the synoptic setup. If the shortwave didn't unravel so quickly and was a little deeper, then we'd really be in business. The rain BTW may have been a blessing in disguise. One issue with extended dry periods is that it's easier to topple over the large tree branches when we do finally get damaging winds to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 I always lol when they delineate Watch boxes along CWA lines (i.e. Southern border counties of MI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 I always lol when they delineate Watch boxes along CWA lines (i.e. Southern border counties of MI) ww0356_overview_wou.gif Yeah, when WILX broke in to programming to announce the watch they chuckled that Branch and Hillsdale weren't in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 a storm in northeast lower MI has that flying-eagle supercell shape. There is a 3" hail report from northwest lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like IL is out of the chances for today - at least northern IL now. Drier air now filtering in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like IL is out of the chances for today - at least northern IL now. Drier air now filtering in. Yep. Most likely, storms will initiate along the "effective front", or the lake breeze boundary in MI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looking over the high res models, it looks like the best shear and forcing will hang to the north in the thumb/sag valley area. SPC seems to agree. While a risk exists for the Metro Detroit area, I really wouldn't be surprised if we got shut out again here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looking over the high res models, it looks like the best shear and forcing will hang to the north in the thumb/sag valley area. SPC seems to agree. While a risk exists for the Metro Detroit area, I really wouldn't be surprised if we got shut out again here locally. FWIW, the Hi-Res models (HRRR, NMM / ARW, 4km NAM, RAP) do show most of Metro Detroit getting in on some of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 FWIW, the Hi-Res models (HRRR, NMM / ARW, 4km NAM, RAP) do show most of Metro Detroit getting in on some of the action. The northern suburbs and the city itself. When I say locally, I mean the downriver area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Yep. Most likely, storms will initiate along the "effective front", or the lake breeze boundary in MI... Yeah I think you're right. One small cell along the lake front south of here. It sure did get windy here in the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 The northern suburbs and the city itself. When I say locally, I mean the downriver area. Ah ok, I misunderstood you. I know this season has been absolutely atrocious thus far and it's hard to not assume the worst, but even for Downriver, it's the best-looking setup we've had this season. So I would at least give the activity a chance to develop and evolve before expressing doubts. As we know, convection is known to always throw curve balls in terms of what one expects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Had golf ball sized hail over where I work in East Jordan around 11:45 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 That storm approaching alpena probably needs a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 That storm approaching alpena probably needs a tornado warning. Has pretty decent rotation thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 looks like there is some rotation and 2 to 3" hail east of Gladwin MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 looks like there is some rotation and 2 to 3" hail east of Gladwin MI Tornado warned cell near Standish looks pretty strong on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Ah ok, I misunderstood you. I know this season has been absolutely atrocious thus far and it's hard to not assume the worst, but even for Downriver, it's the best-looking setup we've had this season. So I would at least give the activity a chance to develop and evolve before expressing doubts. As we know, convection is known to always throw curve balls in terms of what one expects. Feel any different now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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