Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 ECMWF/GFS in better agreement now in general, and it looks like the potential will be there for multiple convective systems moving through the region from the middle of next week and beyond. Capping will almost certainly be an issue with south/west extent and we will have to see how the models handle this as it gets closer. This setup will have a lot of instability to tap along with your typical just-good-enough summer shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 GFS sounding off by Chicago on the 7th. The potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 GFS sounding off by Chicago on the 7th. The potential is there. Details aren't super important right now but notice the mid level temps on that forecast sounding. 700 mb looks like near 13C. There are exceptions but normally I start getting concerned about capping once you get near/over 12C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Details aren't super important right now but notice the mid level temps on that forecast sounding. 700 mb looks like near 13C. There are exceptions but normally I start getting concerned about capping once you get near/over 12C.Yeah at this point I would be looking at northern WI and into MI along the boundary, thermo profile is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 Yeah at this point I would be looking at northern WI and into MI along the boundary, thermo profile is much better. Low predictability pattern for sure, in terms of individual disturbances. I think farther south is in the game as well but it's more of a battle with the cap as it tries to assert itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Low predictability pattern for sure, in terms of individual disturbances. I think farther south is in the game as well but it's more of a battle with the cap as it tries to assert itself.The nice thing I am seeing is the area along the warm front is juxtaposed with very high instability and limited capping. If stuff were to go we could be looking at some impressive MCSs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 4, 2016 Author Share Posted July 4, 2016 Day 2 ENH in western portions of the sub. Model signals for repeated activity continue to be there. Would take quite a dancing act to avoid sig rain around here in the coming days but until it happens, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 I'm surprised this thread has been so quiet. There's a lot of potential with this upcoming setup, for most of us in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 I'm surprised this thread has been so quiet. There's a lot of potential with this upcoming setup, for most of us in fact. I like Friday's potential, and it probably will happen because I will be leaving the area for Toronto that weekend. So the skip zone will move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Squarely in the Day 2 enhanced area here. Tomorrow afternoon looks prime, but depending on your preferred cam things may be too scattered to consider it a lock. We do need the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 fwiw, NMM shows a UH track right thru the twin cities, however storm mode looks to be more linear at the time of passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 I like Friday's potential, and it probably will happen because I will be leaving the area for Toronto that weekend. So the skip zone will move east. I wouldn't rule out anything Wednesday or Thursday either. Given the wind flow and that we'll be sitting along the instability gradient, any cold pool MCS could propagate into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Looking forward to a series of 7 am mcs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 18Z GFS looks better for both Thurs and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 4, 2016 Author Share Posted July 4, 2016 Looking forward to a series of 7 am mcs I'm not too optimistic about the initial one overnight Tuesday into Wednesday...track is a bit uncertain and looks like it may be in a weakening phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 fwiw, NMM shows a UH track right thru the twin cities, however storm mode looks to be more linear at the time of passing. NMMB is almost always too bullish with precip/storm coverage and thus would tend to turn things linear faster. ARW has a couple of supercells tracking through central MN tomorrow (although I believe that is more for C/W). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 NMMB is almost always too bullish with precip/storm coverage and thus would tend to turn things linear faster. ARW has a couple of supercells tracking through central MN tomorrow (although I believe that is more for C/W). The WRF models seem to be a bit bullish on UH all around, like they were for the last event in N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 The WRF models seem to be a bit bullish on UH all around, like they were for the last event in N IL. The cell in N IL near Earlville on 6/22 certainly generated high UH, the fact that it was HP meant it couldn't concentrate that into a focused area thanks to RFD dominance and thus it didn't produce a major, long-lived tornado when it could've certainly if it was more classic in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 I'm not too optimistic about the initial one overnight Tuesday into Wednesday...track is a bit uncertain and looks like it may be in a weakening phase. Yep, early mid morning weakening phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 NAM tries to maintain respectable garden variety intensity into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Thursday's looking very impressive on the new GFS. Definitely looks more impressive than last night's Euro, as the Euro lags the mid-level support compared to the GFS, and wind fields below 700 are much more impressive on the GFS. Euro also has the better instability and low-level wind fields further to the south compared to the GFS. The GFS would indicate some decent tor potential as well with a strongly sheared environment from the surface up into the mid-levels, along with favorable vectors. GFS shows the southern WI/eastern IA/northern IL in the right entrance region of the upper jet, and on the nose of the incoming H5 speed max. The vort max rolling through Minnesota later Thursday also looks pretty impressive. The new NAM looks sort of Euro-ish, and keeps better low-level wind fields further to the south over MO/downstate IL. Also lags behind with the mid-levels like the Euro. So the GFS looks like it's on it's own out of these three models. I'll be curious to see if the new Euro adjusts towards the 12z GFS, or maintains. If it maintains the GFS may be out to lunch. Of course we still have a few more days to go, so who knows. If the GFS comes to fruition we have a very potent little setup on the way for later Thu/Thu eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Thursday's looking very impressive on the new GFS. Definitely looks more impressive than last night's Euro, as the Euro lags the mid-level support compared to the GFS, and wind fields below 700 are much more impressive on the GFS. Euro also has the better instability and low-level wind fields further to the south compared to the GFS. The GFS would indicate some decent tor potential as well with a strongly sheared environment from the surface up into the mid-levels, along with favorable vectors. GFS shows the southern WI/eastern IA/northern IL in the right entrance region of the upper jet, and on the nose of the incoming H5 speed max. The vort max rolling through Minnesota later Thursday also looks pretty impressive. The new NAM looks sort of Euro-ish, and keeps better low-level wind fields further to the south over MO/downstate IL. Also lags behind with the mid-levels like the Euro. So the GFS looks like it's on it's own out of these three models. I'll be curious to see if the new Euro adjusts towards the 12z GFS, or maintains. If it maintains the GFS may be out to lunch. Of course we still have a few more days to go, so who knows. If the GFS comes to fruition we have a very potent little setup on the way for later Thu/Thu eve. too much is going to happen convectively tomorrow to put too much stock in individual solutions for thursday but i'd lean towards the euro solution of keeping better support displaced further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 The SPC singled out the Twin Cities for the potential severe wind event later today. A few cells have already fired out by the SD border. Should morph into a linear line by the time it reaches here. This is the 3rd time we've been in an enhanced risk area this season with nothing to show for it. Let's see if we can break the trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 New ECMWF a step in the right direction for those of us further north regarding Thursday's potential. Still a little slower than the GFS with the short wave. Given that the slower solutions advertised by the Euro have a tendency to work out I'm leaning in that direction. Would probably mean a raging MCS rolling across Iowa later Thursday into Thursday evening, and should make it across the MS river, as the LLJ ramps up pretty nicely after sunset over IL. Any tor potential would probably be early on. With the strong forcing/weak upper levels things would probably get messy pretty fast despite favorable vectors. Basically the way SPC has day 3 drawn up looks spot on based on the new Euro. Should be an interesting evening Thu for eastern IA and northern IL, particularly on the IA side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 The SPC singled out the Twin Cities for the potential severe wind event later today. A few cells have already fired out by the SD border. Should morph into a linear line by the time it reaches here. This is the 3rd time we've been in an enhanced risk area this season with nothing to show for it. Let's see if we can break the trend today. HRRR consistently with mini bow into the twin cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 HRRR consistently with mini bow into the twin cities Yeah I will give it props for its consistency. It didn't do well with the morning activity though. Skies now clearing. Watch coming: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 051819Z - 051915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY DEVELOPING TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SD/MN. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING OVER TRAVERSE/GRANT/STEVENS COUNTY REGION OF MN IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CU FIELD IS EXPANDING ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT...DRAPED FROM CNTRL MN...WSWWD INTO ERN SD...WEST OF ATY OVER CLARK COUNTY. EXTREME BUOYANCY ALONG WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT FAVORS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MATURE AND PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS MN TOWARD THE MS RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 First tornado warning of the day for MPX, near Appleton, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 radar looks good as far as a nice bow into the twin cities is concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Watching moisture scream to the north here in the Des Moines area. I can see today over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 moderate incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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