NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Enhanced risk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 It's lit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 It's lit It's lit? Lol, what does that mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 It's lit? Lol, what does that mean.Urban for great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 The HRRR has 3 or 4 different clusters of storms. It's going to be a wet day in a lot of areas. The HRRR has as much as 3-4" of rain places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1129 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016VALID 011630Z - 021200Z...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THENORTHEAST......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREAOVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY INTO TNGT...SEASONABLY STRONG 700-500 MB FLOW ALREADY PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THENERN U.S. WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E/NE INTO NEW ENGLANDLATER TODAY/TNGT AS GRT LKS TROUGH CONTINUES GENERALLY EWD.SFC/STREAMLINE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT A CONFLUENCE AXIS IS BEGINNINGTO EVOLVE THIS MORNING FROM ERN WV NWD INTO CNTRL NY...WELL E OFBOTH THE OHIO COLD FRONT AND WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THE SAMETIME...SFC AND SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW APPRECIABLE MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SPREADING NWDFROM THE DELMARVA REGION ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ.CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING ALONG WITH MODERATE FORCING FORASCENT WITH UPR TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTN STORMDEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN NY SWD INTOMD-VA. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE CONFLUENCEAXIS AND...POSSIBLY...ON ERN EDGE OF WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND.AMPLE /40+ KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINEDSTORMS/SUPERCELLS...BUT STORM MODE WILL BE COMPLEX GIVEN MULTIPLESOURCES OF LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND WEAK CINH. WITH TIME...OVERALL SET-UPSUGGESTS LIKELY EVOLUTION INTO A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE NE/SW SQLN...WITHTHE MOST PROGRESSIVE/LONG-LIVED PART CONTINUING EWD INTO WRN/CNTRLNEW ENGLAND BY EVE. STORMS THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BECAPABLE OF SVR HAIL /ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN/...WITH INCREASINGLIKELIHOOD FOR DMGG WIND. DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE AND TERRAININTERACTIONS...SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FORTORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO ERN NY/WRN NEWENGLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE...WHERE IT APPEARS THAT MOSTFAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INCREASING MOISTURE/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILLRESIDE ATOP POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 First enhanced risk of the year, I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Look at the cells already getting going in PA. Looks like cells also getting ready to develop in the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Now we just need a watch issued and the jink will be in effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Look at the cells already getting going in PA. Looks like cells also getting ready to develop in the LHVYep, just saw that myself. Cells popping up everywhere. Even if there is no severe today, most of the board wil get soaked with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Kiss of death, Snowlover. Mesoscale Discussion 1104 < Previous MD MD 1104 graphic MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...DE...NRN MD AND WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 011651Z - 011845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z. DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERN NY INTO ERN PA WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PROMOTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND CORRIDOR OF DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE SFC-LAYER WARMS. A BELT OF 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SUGGESTS SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. MIXED STORM MODES WITH BOTH MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Severe thunderstorm watch will be posted shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 I'd go with 40% chance that it's a red box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised if it was a red box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Tornado watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I'm guessing the gap in Morris is part of Mt.Holly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 I'm guessing the gap in Morris is part of Mt.Holly? Yes, All of the Mt. Holly CWA was left out. I'm sure that a second watch will be issued further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 That cell riding along or just North of Rt 78 in PA looks nasty. Probably some decent hail with that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Almost all the cells in NE PA are showing some weak rotation. You can see it better on KBGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Starting to see more sun again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yes, All of the Mt. Holly CWA was left out. I'm sure that a second watch will be issued further South. Does the SPC care about these boundaries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Does the SPC care about these boundaries? I didn't think they did. They used to just issue watch boxes. Really makes no sense having Mt Holly in a STW and Upton gets a tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Now you can see why they split it although the better instability is South so I'm not sure in the reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 This cell is going to need a TOR soon. That cell riding along or just North of Rt 78 in PA looks nasty. Probably some decent hail with that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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