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Chance of severe storms this evening and tonight.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1142.html

The WPC has your area under a slight risk of severe weather.  Before you get all excited and then complain again later when nothing happens.....

 

slight
slīt/
adjective
 
  1. 1.
    small in degree; inconsiderable.
    "a slight increase"

 

 

Good luck.

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Not complaining, just think it is funny that whenever there is talk of severe storms around here the past five years it usually ends up not doing much, if anything at all. And the more in advanced and higher the risk they give us the more likely there aren't any storms at all. The biggest storms we have had come when there is no watch at all and when they are not talked about much beforehand. It is just funny how it has been that way for my area the last few years.

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Not complaining, just think it is funny that whenever there is talk of severe storms around here the past five years it usually ends up not doing much, if anything at all. And the more in advanced and higher the risk they give us the more likely there aren't any storms at all. The biggest storms we have had come when there is no watch at all and when they are not talked about much beforehand. It is just funny how it has been that way for my area the last few years.

 

Well, damn.  You managed to complain before it had a chance to not happen.  lol

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Well, damn.  You managed to complain before it had a chance to not happen.  lol

 

That wasn't complaining. Just pointing out how it has been around here with regards to storms the last few years. I wasn't complaining one way or another about getting or not getting storms. Just saying I think it's funny how it has worked out here.

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post-987-0-58851300-1467749312_thumb.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN SC...NC...AND SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051810Z - 052015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC/SC AND ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE IN NRN
NC/SRN VA. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION IS MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. LATEST RAP MESOANALSIS SUGGESTS RESULTANT MLCAPE RANGES
FROM 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS TO NEAR 3000 J/KG FURTHER E.
THIS REGION CURRENTLY LIES ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH AREA VWPS ESTIMATING WEAK SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO
WLY AND STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 30-35 KT AT 6 KM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 25-35 KT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION FORMING IN WRN NC TO BECOME
ORGANIZED/FORWARD PROPAGATING...WITH A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BUILDING CU ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE THAN ONE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER COULD DEVELOP.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 07/05/2016

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Scape is pretty sick but there isnt much in the way of mid level lapse rates so there is just enough shear/low level lapse rates  to keep em going, supercell comp is 2-4 across the area so thats pretty high...could see some pretty decent wind reports in some of these cells.....

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