Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice line cutting across S RI/ SE MA. Severe cell warned. Blew up to my south as I watched it from my deck. Nice anvil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 Residual boundary from yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 nah... modestly unstable LI's throughout the SNE region and South Coastal s-breeze boundary offering weak convergence down there as the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 Lots of thunder here. Looks like the heaviest will be just to my south by Bob's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Cell popped up over Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Seems like some good signals overnight for some elevated convection. Enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 We shall see what tomorrow brings. While the degree of instability is certainly not the question I think the best mid and upper level forcing is going to be held back too far to the west (which always seems to be an issue) and lapse rates will probably be marginal (~6 C/KM)...although the GFS is much more impressive than the NAM but it always seems like that is the case and I don't know why. Anyways, while a pre-frontal should come by during the day and be a focal point for convective development, I think updrafts will struggle to maintain themselves once they reach a certain height so while we'll see several strong storms, they will have hard time reaching severe limits and sustaining themselves if they reach that point. With such high PWATS and a juicy atmosphere, cape will also be a bit water logged too which will actually result in cape not being as strong as indicates. All in all...we may see scattered activity during the day but they could struggle to do a whole lot. Main threat obviously is torrential downpours and vivid lightning, however, strong winds, perhaps some hail, and I suppose the possibility for an isolated tornado does exist as well, especially if winds remain backed in the valley...the flow is strong enough to certainly not discount this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 The cell forming over Warwick / south of Providence at 6:15pm, I took this looking ~ 20 miles northwest at the cell from Horseneck beach, spectacular structure just as it was forming: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 Nice capture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 The SPC has a broad slight risk tomorrow, including upstate NY, Pennsylvania, parts of New England. I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe wind/hail from the Hudson Valley or southern Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 I'm flying out of BDL at 2:45p.m. Probably too early for any storm impact. Kind of a bummer to be missing what might be the highlight of the SNE severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Seems like another meh severe day as forcing sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like another meh severe day as forcing sucks I'm actually not concerned about that. Seems like the bigger issue is that we're going to mix out dews today - all of the models show this to some extent - which should limit CAPE. We'll definitely see some storms but I think getting something other than marginally severe is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm actually not concerned about that. Seems like the bigger issue is that we're going to mix out dews today - all of the models show this to some extent - which should limit CAPE. We'll definitely see some storms but I think getting something other than marginally severe is unlikely. I saw that. Definitely don't like seeing that. Very evident looking at 30mb Td on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw that. Definitely don't like seeing that. Very evident looking at 30mb Td on the NAM. NCAR ensemble mean has MLCAPEs around 500 j/kg late today with dews in the low 60s. Next please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 Looks like pre-frontal sort of screws us with veering winds and mixing dews. I was skeptical on the degree of forcing and not overlapping the best cape but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 I do wonder if some evening stuff fires near s coast as moisture pooling and good mid level lapse rates continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I do wonder if some evening stuff fires near s coast as moisture pooling and good mid level lapse rates continue. I wouldn't be surprised to see activity blossom a bit towards be south coast for reasons you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Gotta feel for Wiz and also for lawns and reservoirs as things worsen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I do wonder if some evening stuff fires near s coast as moisture pooling and good mid level lapse rates continue. SE MA stealing all the good weather again...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Severe Watch Likely for NNE... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NY ADIRONDACKS / VT / NH / SWRN AND SRN MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 181432Z - 181630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF A DAMAGING-WIND/HAIL THREAT...WILL LIKELY BEGIN NEAR MIDDAY AND DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPEED MAX MOVING OVER THE LAKE HURON VICINITY AND WITHIN THE BASE OF A TROUGH LOCATED OVER ONTARIO. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NY AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND FROM W TO E DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 14Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S NEAR ALB AND INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE. KCXX SHOWS SLY 0-1 KM FLOW VEERING TO WLY AND INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO 50-KT IN THE 3-5 KM ARL LAYER. GIVEN THE ABOVE-SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 14-17Z PERIOD. THE WIND/HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH THE STRONGER CELLULAR STORMS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK SUPERCELLS/. THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL PROBABLY MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO MAINE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...OWING IN PART TO THE STRENGTH OF THE MEAN FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Most hi res stuff crushes north of I-90 into S VT and SNH and leaves south of I-90 with little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Severe Watch Likely for NNE... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NY ADIRONDACKS / VT / NH / SWRN AND SRN MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 181432Z - 181630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF A DAMAGING-WIND/HAIL THREAT...WILL LIKELY BEGIN NEAR MIDDAY AND DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPEED MAX MOVING OVER THE LAKE HURON VICINITY AND WITHIN THE BASE OF A TROUGH LOCATED OVER ONTARIO. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NY AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND FROM W TO E DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 14Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S NEAR ALB AND INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE. KCXX SHOWS SLY 0-1 KM FLOW VEERING TO WLY AND INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO 50-KT IN THE 3-5 KM ARL LAYER. GIVEN THE ABOVE-SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 14-17Z PERIOD. THE WIND/HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH THE STRONGER CELLULAR STORMS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK SUPERCELLS/. THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL PROBABLY MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO MAINE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...OWING IN PART TO THE STRENGTH OF THE MEAN FLOW. Buckle up, We will see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 A watch has been issued SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MAINE NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHERN NEW YORK VERMONT LAKE ONTARIO * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1115 AM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 165 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 105 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HOULTON MAINE TO 50 MILES WEST OF LEBANON NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 Dews already mixing out down in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2016 Author Share Posted July 18, 2016 Stupid POS ***hole no good for nothing **** ass region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Dews already mixing out down in the valley Pretty heavy overcast here now. Bye bye severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Congrats Wiz and Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Nice, my first severe thunderstorm watch of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.