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All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread


weatherwiz

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Trees which, I should add, were seeded by the '38 hurricane.

The Minnesota-to-Maine derecho of July 4-5, 1999 flattened thousands of cords in the Rangeley country, many of which had been established by the 1938 storm, some by the one in 1944.   (That derecho flattened thousands of acres, perhaps millions of trees, in MN.)

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The Minnesota-to-Maine derecho of July 4-5, 1999 flattened thousands of cords in the Rangeley country, many of which had been established by the 1938 storm, some by the one in 1944.   (That derecho flattened thousands of acres, perhaps millions of trees, in MN.)

Stuff like that fascinates me. Wasn't there also a massive derecho in the Adirondacks around then, too?  Re Fishers again, the island had been heavily forested for much of its history, until a huge hurricane in September 1815 blew down virtually every tree and wiped out the native deer population. Then it was used primarily for sheep farming for much of the next few centuries. When my great-great grandparents started going there, it was just sweeping meadows like Block Island. '38 came along, and now it's heavily forested again, just awaiting the next major blowdown. 1635, 1815, 1938...?

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11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Stuff like that fascinates me. Wasn't there also a massive derecho in the Adirondacks around then, too?  Re Fishers again, the island had been heavily forested for much of its history, until a huge hurricane in September 1815 blew down virtually every tree and wiped out the native deer population. Then it was used primarily for sheep farming for much of the next few centuries. When my great-great grandparents started going there, it was just sweeping meadows like Block Island. '38 came along, and now it's heavily forested again, just awaiting the next major blowdown. 1635, 1815, 1938...?

2016

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Stuff like that fascinates me. Wasn't there also a massive derecho in the Adirondacks around then, too?  Re Fishers again, the island had been heavily forested for much of its history, until a huge hurricane in September 1815 blew down virtually every tree and wiped out the native deer population. Then it was used primarily for sheep farming for much of the next few centuries. When my great-great grandparents started going there, it was just sweeping meadows like Block Island. '38 came along, and now it's heavily forested again, just awaiting the next major blowdown. 1635, 1815, 1938...?

Could've been that same 1999 event.  Its destruction began in Quetico-Superior and Boundary Waters, continued overnight thru southern Ontario, reaching Maine about 4 AM and finally becoming non-severe in the BGR area about 7-8 AM.  That line would've taken it across the 'Dacks sometime after midnight.   Lancaster, NH recorded a gust 90+ and Rangeley one of 80+. 

My place had a sprinkle and brief 40+ gusts, followed by an oppressively HHH day.  Falling trees injured campers at Lake Umbagog in NH and Chain of Ponds in Maine.  At Big Eddy campground, just east of Maine's Flagstaff Lake, gusts unstaked a tent and rolled it - with two campers inside - across the campground while trees were coming down all around, none swatting the moving target.  My agency salvaged about 2,000 cords of blowdown, working on Richardsontown, Lincoln Plantation, and at Bigelow.  Some private landowners suffered even greater damage.

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19 minutes ago, cny rider said:

The mother of all Adirondack derechos was this one in 1995:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul1995derechopage.htm

 

I remember it well as we were canoe camping on Middle Saranac Lake that night.

 

It was devastating to hear of the deaths of those camped around us in the mountains.

 

That's the one I was thinking of.

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

That's the one I was thinking of.

The 1999 storm barely tickled the northernmost part of New York, as it had a banana-shaped track with the convex side on the north.  The Wiki article found on Google ("derecho 1999" brings up several) included an estimate of 25 million trees blown down in the Boundary Waters Wilderness, in a swath 30 miles long and 4-12 miles wide - pics on the SPC article are impressive.  So is the account by a NOAA intern who happened to be camping with family at Cupsuptic Lake west of Rangeley.  The NWS article said that the system did not fully dissipate in eastern Maine, but went feet-wet and made a long looping clockwise curve to come ashore in SC, with a total track of 6,000 nm.

One correction:  The 90 mph gust was in Colebrook, NH, not Lancaster.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-061500-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBOROUGH...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...COVENTRY...WEST GREENWICH...
EAST GREENWICH...WARWICK...WEST WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOON
AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR THESE STORMS ARE NEAR
AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND A VERY LOCALIZED URBAN STREET FLOODING THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK AN INDOOR
SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. IN ADDITION TO THIS
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

$$

FRANK
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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is there a contest to see how many times someone can say "near and especially south of the MA Turnpike"?  It's in about every 3rd sentence. 

Something we've heard a lot in winter and something likely to be heard a lot this coming winter in regards to heavy snows falling in those areas.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Something we've heard a lot in winter and something likely to be heard a lot this coming winter in regards to heavy snows falling in those areas.

 

I was thinking this would be return to a normal winter where it's a snow-to mix-to rain south of the Pike with heavy snow in GC.  Winter the way it's supposed to be.

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42 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Is this potential going to materialize with daytime heating?  Not seeing much on radar right now for southern areas.  All storms have been north.

Yes and once the cold front moves closer.  Good upper divergence over CT/RI into SE MA with area in RFQ of ULJ

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Looks like just some scattered stuff as something went wrong again

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Areas affected, portions of sern ny, nern nj, srn new england

concerning, severe potential, watch possible

valid 061819Z - 062045Z

probability of watch issuance, 40 percent

summary, the area is being monitored for isolated svr-tstm
potential this afternoon. while not likely, there is some
possibility that a svr tstm watch could be issued.

discussion, a recent increase in convective coverage/intensity has
been noted from parts of the lower hudson valley into swrn new
england and vicinity -- along and ahead of a cold front moving
across parts of the northeast. the air mass continues to destabilize
across the region in response to pockets of at least filtered
sunshine amidst dewpoints in the upper 60S to lower 70S. this is
supporting around 750-1250 j/kg of mlcape.

with additional diurnal sfc heating, convection should continue to
increase while spreading ewd through the late afternoon. the 12Z
raobs at alb, okx, and chh sampled a band of modestly enhanced
mid-level flow -- around 30-50 kt. related enhanced deep shear will
continue to overlie the area into the evening hours, supporting
locally organized convective clusters. isolated dmgg wind gusts may
occur.

however, the 12Z raobs also suggest that mid-level lapse rates are
poor across the region. furthermore, weak low-level flow per area
vwps, and the lack of large-scale ascent, detract confidence in
the overall svr risk. nevertheless, given the potential for
organized convective structures to offer some dmgg-wind
risk, convective trends will continue to be monitored for possible
ww issuance.

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