moneypitmike Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: 78/64F, Full sun, Starting to heat up, I expect full meh It's New England. To expect more than 'meh' is a fool's errand. 80/61, mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most guidance keeps this a SNE deal today. Not much north of 90. We'll see really? I guess more dry weather for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 82/65°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's New England. To expect more than 'meh' is a fool's errand. 80/61, mostly cloudy. And i'm no fool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 87/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Currently 87.0/68....starting to feel muggy out there, definitely breezy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Yep, things are looking quite different today from last night. Agree the focus has shifted south, which is good for me, but... There’s just not that much flavor left in the event, as currently progged. Last night the one thing most of the models agreed on was that there would be decent helicity, but now that seems scaled back to more typical SNE “meh” numbers. So even if we get some good instability, something that‘s still very much in question, any supercell activity will likely be sparse and probably will need a boundary to provide the spin. Still, it’s SNE, so just about anything can happen. Insolation looks good, per satellite, no widespread cloud debris, so... Who knows? We‘ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 85/70 @ 11:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 The NAM has really been hitting like south-eastern NY (south of Albany) into western CT right around 0z tonight for a few runs now...still some questions as to how the atmosphere will be (dry mid-levels, lapse rates) but if that complex evolves there could be quite the swath of wind damage and large hail. I'm not really that big on the isolated tornado potential anymore unless winds (sfc winds) back a bit more to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 If anything pops today its going to be winds and hail that tell the tale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 southeastern NY into southwestern CT might be the spot to be. Also, this is interesting to note: While the 500mb winds aren't exactly strong over southern New England, the region (especially western sections) will be on the nose of the strengthening MLJ...if this times with convection that could really enhance the convection and severe wx threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Just looked at the SPC. Has New England in slight again. I think we were slight yesterday and then downgraded last night and then back upgraded to slight past couple of hours. Am I right? Nice to see most all of New England is mostly clear without lots of debris clouds from previous convection. Temps should rise quick region wide. Nah, it was always a slight. But parts of SNE did go in, out, then in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Just now, weatherwiz said: southeastern NY into southwestern CT might be the spot to be. Also, this is interesting to note: While the 500mb winds aren't exactly strong over southern New England, the region (especially western sections) will be on the nose of the strengthening MLJ...if this times with convection that could really enhance the convection and severe wx threat Deep layer shear has sort of gone to hell on the models for later today. That said, there is some shear of note in the lowest 1-3km creating some nice looking hodographs (for SNE). I also wonder how convective initiation looks anyway - Forcing is awfully far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Deep layer shear has sort of gone to hell on the models for later today. That said, there is some shear of note in the lowest 1-3km creating some nice looking hodographs (for SNE). I also wonder how convective initiation looks anyway - Forcing is awfully far north. Looked like there could be some sort of diffuse boundary which could act as a trigger to spark some convection down in SE NY which could slide into parts of CT but yeah...I was never really a big fan of how far north the forcing was. There have been a few things which have trended in a not so good direction...doesn't look good for steeper lapse rates (although the RAP keeps them just over 6 C/KM) and the better shear sort of gets shunted off before moving in...or the timing of that is held back. WE'll probably see some storms develop but severe threat may be a bit more isolated. Maybe if we do see a complex develop it will ride its own cold pool and enhance wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looked like there could be some sort of diffuse boundary which could act as a trigger to spark some convection down in SE NY which could slide into parts of CT but yeah...I was never really a big fan of how far north the forcing was. There have been a few things which have trended in a not so good direction...doesn't look good for steeper lapse rates (although the RAP keeps them just over 6 C/KM) and the better shear sort of gets shunted off before moving in...or the timing of that is held back. WE'll probably see some storms develop but severe threat may be a bit more isolated. Maybe if we do see a complex develop it will ride its own cold pool and enhance wind threat. There should be decent DCAPE so there is a wind threat for sure. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: There should be decent DCAPE so there is a wind threat for sure. We'll see. I just looked at the 12z NAM sounding for BDL and was actually a little impressed...it was a much better look than the 9z RAP sounding which showed substantial dry air. The shear though, while weak is also stronger than the RAP had but still only around 20 m/s. Lapse rates aren't terrible either but it has sfc winds and BL winds more westerly. Really tough to get a good handle on how things evolve later on...still many conflicting signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Just now, weatherwiz said: I just looked at the 12z NAM sounding for BDL and was actually a little impressed...it was a much better look than the 9z RAP sounding which showed substantial dry air. The shear though, while weak is also stronger than the RAP had but still only around 20 m/s. Lapse rates aren't terrible either but it has sfc winds and BL winds more westerly. Really tough to get a good handle on how things evolve later on...still many conflicting signals. The RAP does have a dry bias, but that's mostly at the surface. Things are a little delayed from a couple days ago. The EML plume is still back over the Great Lakes, shortwave is still back in Quebec. Delayed but not denied tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The RAP does have a dry bias, but that's mostly at the surface. Things are a little delayed from a couple days ago. The EML plume is still back over the Great Lakes, shortwave is still back in Quebec. Delayed but not denied tomorrow? Tomorrow could actually be quite fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Just now, weatherwiz said: Tomorrow could actually be quite fun Looks good for NNE tomorrow. I doubt anything back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 When Ryan gets down on a severe threat..usually means time to move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks good for NNE tomorrow. I doubt anything back this way. yeah I would say NNE and north of the Pike to the coast...energy tracks right over them and coincides with steepening lapse rates and good shear. I'm just hoping the NAM is onto something with that cluster which develops to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: southeastern NY into southwestern CT might be the spot to be. Also, this is interesting to note: While the 500mb winds aren't exactly strong over southern New England, the region (especially western sections) will be on the nose of the strengthening MLJ...if this times with convection that could really enhance the convection and severe wx threat better hope that's not initialization ... if it is, ur fooked... that deep layer vectoring implies right motion, with typical storm-curl adding yet another 10 or even 20 deg of latitude loss as they roll. look what happen in Chi town last evening... MCS born in eastern MN actually was moving due S by the time it reached as far east as ORD! if your circle is pop-off point, ...have fun watching ass lit TCU head'n for the li sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 I hope Albany does a special sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I hope Albany does a special sounding I'm guessing no. They don't have the bodies right now, and their threat probably isn't until after 00z anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: better hope that's not initialization ... if it is, ur fooked... that deep layer vectoring implies right motion, with typical storm-curl adding yet another 10 or even 20 deg of latitude loss as they roll. look what happen in Chi town last evening... MCS born in eastern MN actually was moving due S by the time it reached as far east as ORD! if your circle is pop-off point, ...have fun watching ass lit TCU head'n for the li sound that's for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm guessing no. They don't have the bodies right now, and their threat probably isn't until after 00z anyway. seems like alot of offices are under staffed, no? Is the NWS able to hire yet? maybe there will be a huge hiring splurge when I graduate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 I swear nothing works right in this stupid summer...can't get EML's to come in even though its been close, cant get anything to time right, cant get this, cant get that...if its not one thing its another. awful...awful...beyond awful. what crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: seems like alot of offices are under staffed, no? Is the NWS able to hire yet? maybe there will be a huge hiring splurge when I graduate Allowed and able are two very different things. They are trying to reduce staffing without actually laying people off. So that's leaving an imbalance at offices as some have more retirees than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: seems like alot of offices are under staffed, no? Is the NWS able to hire yet? maybe there will be a huge hiring splurge when I graduate I'm sure the federal government will have lots of extra money by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Allowed and able are two very different things. They are trying to reduce staffing without actually laying people off. So that's leaving an imbalance at offices as some have more retirees than others. God that sounds like a horrific mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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