weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: As is typical with an EML, there is a little bit of a cap. Below 700 mb from what I see quickly on the GFS and NAM soundings at MHT and BOS. We'll erase it eventually with lift, but a couple degrees more on dews would help too. Kevin better start watering that mulch bed. Ahh so modes are struggling with that capping...got it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Ahh so modes are struggling with that capping...got it. Thanks! It's not like a traditional loaded gun type cap you see on soundings, but it's there. The low levels are dry enough that there is a little bit of CIN left for a surface based parcel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There should be no shortage of storms through the night though. The models aren't backing down off nocturnal CAPE. Get your cameras ready for some lightning. You're doing that thing where you get me all excited. Batteries on the charger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Just now, eekuasepinniW said: You're doing that thing where you get me all excited. Batteries on the charger... But high CAPE is always good for the bolts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 I will say, the moisture axis is going to be pretty narrow unless we can get it going overnight. ELM has a dewpoint in the low 40s right now, but up to Hudson Bay there are low 70s dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Euro says not to worry if tomorrow doesn't work out - sweet severe setup for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 I'd take my chances with Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 27 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro says not to worry if tomorrow doesn't work out - sweet severe setup for Monday. Staffing is much worse for Monday. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Should be a pretty unique trend to dewpoints actually. Much of the night is probably going to look ugly, as WAA tops the stable boundary layer. But as soon as we warm up, we'll actually mix much higher dewpoints down. The NAM at CON has dewpoints in the upper single digits around 925 mb. Those jump 10 degrees in 3 hours, and Bufkit mixes CON out into the 70 degree dewpoint range by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Man..Sipprell Gone Wild in the AFD today. SGW Does he even understand half of what he types? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Should be a pretty unique trend to dewpoints actually. Much of the night is probably going to look ugly, as WAA tops the stable boundary layer. But as soon as we warm up, we'll actually mix much higher dewpoints down. The NAM at CON has dewpoints in the upper single digits around 925 mb. Those jump 10 degrees in 3 hours, and Bufkit mixes CON out into the 70 degree dewpoint range by afternoon. Crazy that mixing will result in higher dews. Usually I love that 9-11am dew drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man..Sipprell Gone Wild in the AFD today. SGW Does he even understand half of what he types? That was a weenie popping AFD for sure. Talk about microanalysis. I love it. Still not sold on this all coming together. Hopefully SNE gets crushed while I'm in Maine. I'll pass on another microburst when I'm surrounded by trees hundreds of feet high with 8 kids age 8 and under on the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Crazy that mixing will result in higher dews. Usqually I love that 9-11am dew drop in the mountain valleys. NAM Bufkit says CON wakes up to meh dews around 60, only to hit 68 by noon. Similar story at BTV, most New England sites really. Keep an eye on those dews at summit level in the morning. MHT CAPE doesn't drop below 1000 J/kg until 10 AM Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 may i ask what the time frame for storm development is? i work in the outdoor rec field, and we have to evacuate customers from the park when there is lightning...trying to figure out if daily operations will be affected tomorrow...the park is right over the sagamore bridge in sandwich...I know most times, convection won't hold together because of the marine influence...but if there is a chance, i need to be ready for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: may i ask what the time frame for storm development is? i work in the outdoor rec field, and we have to evacuate customers from the park when there is lightning...trying to figure out if daily operations will be affected tomorrow...the park is right over the sagamore bridge in sandwich...I know most times, convection won't hold together because of the marine influence...but if there is a chance, i need to be ready for it It's a later show. Possibly even late afternoon at the earliest for SNE (barring some remnant MCS activity in the morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 HRRRX swing and a miss right now. No convection over WI as of the 18z run (valid 00z), so hard to trust what it shows for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's a later show. Possibly even late afternoon at the earliest for SNE (barring some remnant MCS activity in the morning). thanks, we are open 8am-8pm...this most recent round of storms we had caused two evacs, the 2nd one we had to evac 100 people out of the trees...talk about adrenaline rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Things on track. Big late day and night ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Things on track. Big late day and night ahead Not sold just yet. The complex forming over lake erie seems to be diving to the sw. If it can extend further northward...maybe. Just not sure if it will dry the mid-levels out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Suns out, Temps as well as dews on the rise, 78/63°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 77/54 here at the Pit. Fair amount of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Just looked at the SPC. Has New England in slight again. I think we were slight yesterday and then downgraded last night and then back upgraded to slight past couple of hours. Am I right? Nice to see most all of New England is mostly clear without lots of debris clouds from previous convection. Temps should rise quick region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 84/69 and sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 I am anticipating damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 78/64F, Full sun, Starting to heat up, I expect full meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Most guidance keeps this a SNE deal today. Not much north of 90. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 85/71 here in the valley under clear blue skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 There is a substantial amount of dry air in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 NAM says let's do it again tomorrow and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 let's let this marinade for a while... hi res satellite imagery is interesting when balancing against surface obs... high and low. most sites are more than merely leaf wobbling wind from the SW, while cloud debris elements are curling SE out of southern Ontario/NYS. that (in theory) puts decent directional shear across the area, which is positive for convection alone ... but may also be MCS fertile later on, too. looking up stream, i'd like to see more SW flow in the surface obs across western NY and OH ... establishing a llv jet (of sorts) during max heating, with 500-300 mb layer backing wind direction would be dicey and unstable. that may yet strengthen when mixing kicks in a little later on - plus, dps are averaging 3 to 5 F richer in those areas so that helps the profile for generating some organization out of matters should anything get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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