USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 It appears the main show for Cape Cod this weekend looks to be Saturday night where Severe Storms can bring damaging winds to the area, along with hail. NAM is pretty fierce on the potency of the shortwave and main low pressure center swinging through the region like an MCV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Timing wise looks like a nocturnal event now. Could be wild with lightning wind and a TOR or 2. Timing of day with particular setup won't affect it much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Shrank the slight risk a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 The severe risk and heat for New England is shrinking in area like a tall tee in the dryer for 90 minutes on a high heat setting, to get the picture. The 1000-500 MB thickness is shrinking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Yeah, shrinking risk area, not surprised. Never put your faith in a 3-day out severe prediction in Southern New England, its a likely remote possibility at best, whatever the SPC may say. On the other hand, I will also not be surprised to see the risk area expand again on the day of, or night before. It's SNE, that's just how it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 It's a NNE setup/event. The only shot for SNE to see anything is if an MCS develops and drops south/east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Does anyone happen to remember the date of the severe thunderstorm at night in August of 2000 that dropped baseball sized hail and was tornado warned to northern RI and eastern MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 28 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Does anyone happen to remember the date of the severe thunderstorm at night in August of 2000 that dropped baseball sized hail and was tornado warned to northern RI and eastern MA? Aug 9th or 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Heading to Mount Vernon Maine tommorrow morning for vacation. Last year,our stay was violently brought to an end by severe weather mid week. As exciting as it was for me, for my kids sake I'm rooting against anything too crazy on Friday up there. My son was tramatized for a long time, every time a dark cloud or breeze picked up he flipped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Aug 9th or 10th Thanks Wiz! Something approaching that tomorrow night would be sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 21 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Heading to Mount Vernon Maine tommorrow morning for vacation. Last year,our stay was violently brought to an end by severe weather mid week. As exciting as it was for me, for my kids sake I'm rooting against anything too crazy on Friday up there. My son was tramatized for a long time, every time a dark cloud or breeze picked up he flipped out. Good luck, That area will probably be under the gun again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good luck, That area will probably be under the gun again They need to come about 10 miles farther north; my place avoids svr very efficiently. No lake, however - even the (formerly) 5-acre beaver pond is just a puddle, since the animals left and the dam blew out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: They need to come about 10 miles farther north; my place avoids svr very efficiently. No lake, however - even the (formerly) 5-acre beaver pond is just a puddle, since the animals left and the dam blew out. Or south to here, 7-10 splits are frequent in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 58 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Thanks Wiz! Something approaching that tomorrow night would be sweet That would be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 did anyone notice ... the last three cycles of the NAM puts regional Lifted Indexes down to -9 or -8 for much of the region, and fails to actually have QPF for those some areas overnight Friday into early Saturday. that's ...incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 NAM is unstable into Saturday morning, but quicker to clean house now on Saturday. Still, that's some good stuff on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Can someone care to speculate what storm mode would likely be tomorrow night? Lines? Individual super cells? Both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Probably some lines or segments. I suppose a SUP can't be ruled out if we get more of a EML. It also may not be much of anything, so always keep that in mind. I wouldn't really go nuts until tomorrow to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Probably some lines or segments. I suppose a SUP can't be ruled out if we get more of a EML. It also may not be much of anything, so always keep that in mind. I wouldn't really go nuts until tomorrow to be honest. I just want something half as decent as last February LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 NAM looks really good around 10 p.m. or so for most of SNE. Late show but definitely appears able to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Ryan is pretty gung ho for tomorrow night for SNE. That tells me it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 4 hours ago, ct_yankee said: Yeah, shrinking risk area, not surprised. Never put your faith in a 3-day out severe prediction in Southern New England, its a likely remote possibility at best, whatever the SPC may say. On the other hand, I will also not be surprised to see the risk area expand again on the day of, or night before. It's SNE, that's just how it is here. On the contrary, I would say SPC only pulls the trigger on slights in New England at that range if they really think there is potential. It's usually their closer in threats that we have issues with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 There's still a quite a bit of flags here. Too not see the models not only spit out much QPF but mesos have not much of anything is a huge concern. I also think there could be a bit of a disconnect between the best parameters being able to overlap and the EML plume may not arrive until too late...before that the soundings show numerous areas of warming aloft. I'm even shocked we're not seeing much in NNE on mesos but with timing slowing down and all of the pre-frontal this could sort of hurt. If this is nocturnal we need EML plume to move in b/c BL will begin to stabilize. There is a lot that looks good but quite a bit that looks bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There's still a quite a bit of flags here. Too not see the models not only spit out much QPF but mesos have not much of anything is a huge concern. I also think there could be a bit of a disconnect between the best parameters being able to overlap and the EML plume may not arrive until too late...before that the soundings show numerous areas of warming aloft. I'm even shocked we're not seeing much in NNE on mesos but with timing slowing down and all of the pre-frontal this could sort of hurt. If this is nocturnal we need EML plume to move in b/c BL will begin to stabilize. There is a lot that looks good but quite a bit that looks bad It definitely is starting to look like more of a later show than normal for New England. I am intrigued by the shear vectors. The front is coming in from the NW (so SW to NE orientation) and the forecast 0-6km shear vectors are a little N of due W. So there will be a tendency to line out. But the right movers are forecast to be from 300 or more. So there could be a couple beasts that "step out" from the lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It definitely is starting to look like more of a later show than normal for New England. I am intrigued by the shear vectors. The front is coming in from the NW (so SW to NE orientation) and the forecast 0-6km shear vectors are a little N of due W. So there will be a tendency to line out. But the right movers are forecast to be from 300 or more. So there could be a couple beasts that "step out" from the lines. Yeah no doubt the shear alignment is quite interesting. If/when we see stuff develop I wonder if we have a good 3-4 HR window of supercells in NNE then this stuff conjoins into either a line segment or MCS then works SE. Perhaps something similar to like May of 2010 I think it was. Given the shear aloft this is when the valleys are really going to increase 0-1 SRH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah no doubt the shear alignment is quite interesting. If/when we see stuff develop I wonder if we have a good 3-4 HR window of supercells in NNE then this stuff conjoins into either a line segment or MCS then works SE. Perhaps something similar to like May of 2010 I think it was. Given the shear aloft this is when the valleys are really going to increase 0-1 SRH There should be no shortage of storms through the night though. The models aren't backing down off nocturnal CAPE. Get your cameras ready for some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 I'm really excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: There should be no shortage of storms through the night though. The models aren't backing down off nocturnal CAPE. Get your cameras ready for some lightning. Why do you think the models aren't spitting out much? I'm trying to figure out where to chase tomorrow...will NNE get stuff during the day? I don't want to go if I'm not going richer stiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Why do you think the models aren't spitting out much? I'm trying to figure out where to chase tomorrow...will NNE get stuff during the day? I don't want to go if I'm not going richer stiff As is typical with an EML, there is a little bit of a cap. Below 700 mb from what I see quickly on the GFS and NAM soundings at MHT and BOS. We'll erase it eventually with lift, but a couple degrees more on dews would help too. Kevin better start watering that mulch bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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