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All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread


weatherwiz

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5 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I just saw that drone video on the gyx facebook page.  How is that even possible?  It's like a 30 foot wide swath.

 

I think it was the police or fire chief offered up his drone to our survey crew today. I would need consultation from Tamarack about tree dynamics, but this kind of a channeling is not uncommon. One tree goes down, and allows the wind to accelerate into the channel and take other trees down. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Disagree. Watch for the MCS to come barreling south. With NW flow and good lapse rates these events tend to have some longevity - even after 00z. 

Are you talking about MCS potential for Friday night?  Didn't even look for that...was looking more during the afternoon hours.  

I hope we do see steep lapse rates though, the last few setups the GFS had decent lapse rates but that never really happened...even the other day 700-500 were less than 6 per mesoanalysis but GFS had been showing around 6.5

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10 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Disagree. Watch for the MCS to come barreling south. With NW flow and good lapse rates these events tend to have some longevity - even after 00z. 

Pretty close to going from 6 to midnight here. 7 C/km lapse rates, NW flow with a nice jet core punching in at prime time, low level theta-e lapse rates pushing 10 K/km. A lot to like.

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54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How do you look at low-level theta-e lapse rates? 

The general public is pretty SOL on that. I can tell AWIPS to do the math for me, but I don't know of many website that explicitly even show single level theta-e.

weather.cod.edu does have theta-e up through 850 mb though. Probably want to see surface to 850 difference pushing 10 K.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The general public is pretty SOL on that. I can tell AWIPS to do the math for me, but I don't know of many website that explicitly even show single level theta-e.

weather.cod.edu does have theta-e up through 850 mb though. Probably want to see surface to 850 difference pushing 10 K.

Well that sucks but I guess looking at what they have to offer on weather.cod can provide some help with that...or give an idea 

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well that sucks but I guess looking at what they have to offer on weather.cod can provide some help with that...or give an idea 

If you look hard enough I guess you can find anything. http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/usa.html

Check the "delta theta-e" product. You want something 20+

Good way to assess cold pool strength.

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Nice AFD from BTV on the situation... I like the "uncommon" to see SPC Slight Risk at Day 3.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...An active period with several rounds
of strong to severe storms possible.

Thu Ngt/Early Fri Morning: A surface front in Ontario/Northern Great
Lakes will be slowly approaching. Deep low-level layered moisture
with with PWATS >1.5 inches advecting ahead of front...instability
aloft with increasing presence of elevated mixed layer...a
shortwave trough and exit region of 300mb jet approaching should
have mesoscale convective complex in northern Great Lakes/Ontario
moving into FA during late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

Friday:  As advertised...an Interesting day. SPC Day 3 (issued
earlier today) is uncommon across FA. At times during the past few
days models suggested that various ingredients didn`t quite come
together all at the same time especially an elevated mixed layer.

However...latest guidance is showing potential elevated mixed layer
being present thus helps support the other parameters that have
already been discussed in previous discussions.

Surface instability (temperatures well into the 80s, resulting in
CAPE values pushing 2000 J/kg. there still remains some questions on
the low-level instability due to previous convection or debris
clouds stabilizing atmosphere but feel enough dry air aloft and
breaks will allow for substantial recoup of llvl instability. A
shortwave skip through at some point during the day.

Deep WNW shear of 35-45kts along with model soundings also indicate
high equilibrium levels and semi-low wet bulb zero (10-11k ft)
levels which suggest a wind and hail threat.

Timing...After some recoup time from early morning activity...llvl
destabilization and upper level shortwave activity in late
morning/ aftn for some activity and perhaps enough drying
afterwards for more late aftn/evening with surface front and
another shortwave.

 

Then we have a possible threat on Monday as well:

 

Very similar Monday to Friday`s set-up with approach of strong
shortwave...strong wind dynamics...a bit more amplified and stronger
surface cold front with decent cold air advection and falling
heights associated with it. Strong to severe storms possible again
and already some mention in SPC Day 4-8 discussion.
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