OceanStWx Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 4:05 PM, CT Rain said: Could be good up your way. I think for a large chunk of SNE the timing is just off. Friday is too far west and Saturday is too far east. Thursday could be a mess with a lot of non-severe convection and maybe some flash flooding? There has been a low amplitude signal on the SPC SREF for severe somewhere in New England (mostly north) Thursday. I'm also guessing timing shifts between now and the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 4:15 PM, OceanStWx said: There has been a low amplitude signal on the SPC SREF for severe somewhere in New England (mostly north) Thursday. I'm also guessing timing shifts between now and the weekend. Yeah I'm sure the Friday/Saturday deal will shift. I just always hate seeing Pittsburgh and Buffalo under the gun (like on Friday) - it tends to be a bad omen for CT/W Mass/VT unless we can manage some nocturnal or daybreak stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 SREF means on Thursday afternoon for BDL printing out ~1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and ~30 knots of effective shear. Not bad. With some QG forcing I think we could have somewhat widespread convection given that shortwave and height falls moving through just after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 5:03 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah I'm sure the Friday/Saturday deal will shift. I just always hate seeing Pittsburgh and Buffalo under the gun (like on Friday) - it tends to be a bad omen for CT/W Mass/VT unless we can manage some nocturnal or daybreak stuff. Most of my childhood memories of severe weather involved a great radar near BGM, followed by Wiz level disappointment with whatever crossed Narragansett Bay after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 5:04 PM, CT Rain said: SREF means on Thursday afternoon for BDL printing out ~1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and ~30 knots of effective shear. Not bad. With some QG forcing I think we could have somewhat widespread convection given that shortwave and height falls moving through just after 18z. NAM could use a little more oomph in the wind field around BDL But color me intrigued for northern NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Yeah NAM to me looks like some decent pulsers and heavy rain down here. I'll take that. Nice look up north though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Saturday looks banal on this Euro run... tries to slam bd down to the NYC and sorry - that experience for me is that it's immovable if that leaches in like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 6:18 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Saturday looks banal on this Euro run... tries to slam bd down to the NYC and sorry - that experience for me is that it's immovable if that leaches in like that Euro also has 60s with an easterly wind on Saturday. That's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 6:25 PM, CT Rain said: Euro also has 60s with an easterly wind on Saturday. That's ugly. Brutal, but the GFS looks better in my opinion. Whatever the GFS is worth at 4 days lead time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 6:29 PM, OceanStWx said: Brutal, but the GFS looks better in my opinion. Whatever the GFS is worth at 4 days lead time anyway. Yup. Selling the Euro here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 it really is remarkable watching these model cycles churn out products that smack of deliberately engineering ways NOT to do convection or heat up this way... fascinating. it's like model verification scores are horrible for over pricing heat and thunder in new england, so instead of improving them...they just stick a coefficient butt bang variables on the outside of their physical algorithms ... because one way or the other, we're getting screwed ...so what difference does it make how? haha. j/k of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 6:31 PM, CT Rain said: Yup. Selling the Euro here. It is something awful here in PWM, Euro MOS showing 66/61 in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 6:25 PM, CT Rain said: Euro also has 60s with an easterly wind on Saturday. That's ugly. yeah ...didn't get into the physical description of that but yup - that's a nightmare opposite look to the 00z run (in terms of 'punching into to the party') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 6:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ...didn't get into the physical description of that but yup - that's a nightmare opposite look to the 00z run (in terms of 'punching into to the party') I'm guessing Kevin Wood is not supporting the Euro for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 7:47 PM, CT Rain said: I'm guessing Kevin Wood is not supporting the Euro for Saturday. Torrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 We should rename this thread and just keep a rolling "General Convection" thread for the summer...I think that's what we did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 11:07 PM, powderfreak said: We should rename this thread and just keep a rolling "General Convection" thread for the summer...I think that's what we did last year. Agreed. You want to start it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 On 7/5/2016 at 12:24 PM, OceanStWx said: Based on radar presentation and your location, I would say at worst you saw a wall cloud. Awesome, thanks for the feedback! Hopefully next time things work out a little better. I need to get on eyewall's level of photography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Tomorrow...weak boundary near pike and big CAPE. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 On 7/6/2016 at 5:44 PM, CoastalWx said: Tomorrow...weak boundary near pike and big CAPE. Hmmm. I know, I know, 36 hour HRRRX, but I don't hate the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yeah. I know shear is kind of meh...but pretty good CAPE for sure. Also have decent turning to help with lack of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 On 7/6/2016 at 5:44 PM, CoastalWx said: Tomorrow...weak boundary near pike and big CAPE. Hmmm. Yup. Slow movers too with weak wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 there's also a weak vortmax left over from that MCS processing over the southern MI region... that's rippling east and should pass over head sometime tomorrow fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Friday night/Saturday looks like a strong and long duration elevated thunderstorm bonanza for NYC area on Euro, just north of warm front. BOSTON is sheet drizzle and 63. What do you think of European? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Wah wah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Ground zero today appears to be NE CT up thru ORH 3-4 inches of rain for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 On 7/7/2016 at 2:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Ground zero today appears to be NE CT up thru ORH 3-4 inches of rain for some Drought no longer begets drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The front really just appears to be sharpening in place. No significant movement one way or another, until you get to the Hudson where temps and dews are climbing. Pretty ripe over CT already, yet lows 60s/upper 50s dews are hanging out near the MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Storm just popped up in central RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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