weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I'll add more to this when I am in my laptop, however, we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow although the highest likelihood could be just west but some recent data suggest even western/central MA and CT could be included.Lapse rates may be better north and west, however, high dews and Sfc heating would allow for some decent MLcape values (1000-2000 J) and shear, while not overly impressive is adequate enough to help sustain updrafts and organized activity. It also appears there could be some good low-level backing to o along with increasing low-level shear so maybe a few supercells as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 FWIW, the latest from the SPC re the July 1st potential. I think some of us will see at least a nice light show. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 2 percent tornado chance for here and 5 just to the west wouldn't be surprised if we get upgraded to a slight risk later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Nice, our 2nd slight risk of the weak. Hopefully at least some good lightning again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Nice, our 2nd slight risk of the weak. Hopefully at least some good lightning again. image.jpeg i have a 5 pm flight out of BTV. I'd love to see the NWS office when it's hopping with activity, but that's the worst time to stop by for a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yeah this is worth watching. Timing is a bit late for us but I think there are a few things that could make this quite interesting with nice low level shear and decent mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yeah this is worth watching. Timing is a bit late for us but I think there are a few things that could make this quite interesting with nice low level shear and decent mid level lapse rates. always seems to come to that, doesn't it - seems over the years, ...soon as an AFD mentioned words to the affect of, "...LIMITING FACTOR BEING MODEST ML LR" ... may as well close the blinds until next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 This could get interesting later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yeah this is worth watching. Timing is a bit late for us but I think there are a few things that could make this quite interesting with nice low level shear and decent mid level lapse rates. Yeah I'm not so sure how the timing is going to work out for us but it will be close. Steepening lapse rates and increasing shear could keep a threat for a couple strong to severe storms into the early overnight here. Looking at the observed OKX and ALB soundings they aren't all that impressive looking...OKX does have some nice backing, however, if you look off to the west you see much better soundings which does bode well later on (stronger shear and steeper lapse rates working in). It is interesting though how the ALb and OKX soundings aren't spitting out much cape for later on. Looks like a pocket of mlvl warmth could hurt lapse rates a tad and maybe have a slight negative affect on cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 SPC expanded the slight risk eastward into CT/MA/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 A shower or two overnight would work here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 lots of cloud debris here temp actually dropped from 80 to 78 but DP is up to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Winni waterspouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yo, love this lightning site https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;y=36.5955;x=-81.0374;z=5;d=2;dl=2;dc=0; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Enhanced risk by the SPC for the western population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 5 percent tornao 30 percent wind not bad for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Lots of cloud debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 5 percent tornao 30 percent wind not bad for here Likely more for the Shires than here but a slim chance exists i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Wow, enhanced for SW areas. When was the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I just hope they hold together enough to provide a natural fireworks display later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 have a bit of CIN out east. CU towers pancaking around 10 K or so and creating low topped alto-strata debris... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Pants tent time for Paul: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Tornado watch for Hartford, New Haven, Fairfield, and Litchfield Counties. #FirstAlertCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Yessssss. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 TOR Watch for entire ALY CWA and surrounding counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Jealous, rooting for you guys to get some decent action finally this year severe wise. Hopefully we'll get your leftovers down here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Better get out Dorothy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Marine air here down in SECT temp now 76 with a SE wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Folks should hope for the best but watch out for the meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Folks should hope for the best but watch out for the meh HRRR is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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