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June 30-July 5 Severe/Heavy Rain thread


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Portions of the subforum (mainly northwest of the Illinois River) have been upgraded to a Slight Risk:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MO...
   WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO MN...WITH
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   UPPER/MID MS VALLEY.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
   COVER IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO IL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
   HEATING FROM SOUTHERN WI...ACROSS EASTERN IA...INTO MO.  DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 60S OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A
   RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  GIVEN CONSISTENT SIGNAL
   FOR CONVECTION AND TRENDS IN DESTABILIZATION... HAVE OPTED TO
   UPGRADE THIS REGION TO SLIGHT RISK.

 

ILX is also hitting hard at the hopefully drought-busting heavy rains that will arrive in our region just in time for the holiday weekend (perfect timing for many :( ). 

 

http://www.weather.gov/ilx/holiday-heavyrain

 

So this thread could be a catch-all for whatever severe risks/heavy rain events transpire throughout this holiday weekend and into the middle of next week.

 

 

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Yikes, those temps would be extremely impressive, considering we are heading into the dog days of summer, seriously though some pretty foul timing.

Few models have some 7" lollipops in east central Missouri, with a 5" zone just north of STL. Not gonn be good for the poor river.

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Wind damage reported in Denver, Iowa (north of Waterloo).  Per DMX:

 

NWUS53 KDMX 302208
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
508 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG DENVER 42.67N 92.33W
06/30/2016 BREMER IA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF TREE
DAMAGE INCLUDING NUMEROUS BRANCHES DOWN.
RELAYED VIA KWWL. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

 

KWWL-7 Waterloo story:

 

http://www.kwwl.com/story/32349520/2016/06/30/strong-storms-cause-damage-in-bremer-county

 

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DVN also reporting two hail reports this evening, the first from Arbela, MO (Scotland County); and the other from Bushnell, IL (McDonough County):

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
716 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL ARBELA 40.46N 92.02W
06/30/2016 E1.00 INCH SCOTLAND MO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY NWS ST LOUIS.

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
818 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0813 PM HAIL BUSHNELL 40.55N 90.50W
06/30/2016 E0.50 INCH MCDONOUGH IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO DIME SIZE.

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Going into the big heat spell with quite possibly almost no rain in the prior 2 weeks (by that time, even longer for you) will be fun.

Add in the fact that areas to the south are going to get rain and you add that ambient moisture to the mix. Going to be very hot and potentially very humid.
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Latest Day 3 for Sunday has a small Slight for far S IL, far SW IN, W KY, and SE MO for now--while SPC is not ruling a larger Slight Risk area in later outlooks:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

...PARTS OF SERN KS/ERN OK EWD TO SERN VA/CAROLINAS COASTS...   A ROUGHLY W-E SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK ACROSS   THE OZARKS/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE NC/VA AREA DURING THE   AFTERNOON...BENEATH ENHANCED /30 TO 45 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS.  AWAY   FROM AREAS OF LINGERING CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION...HEATING OF A   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE   DESTABILIZATION...AND SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE   AFTERNOON.  WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS   REGARDING RIPPLES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD -- AND THUS IN   LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE CONCENTRATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS...WILL   INTRODUCE A BROAD LOW-PROBABILITY RISK AREA ATTM.  WITH MODELS   HINTING AT A POSSIBLE AREA OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL INVOF THE MID   MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...WILL HIGHLIGHT A SMALL SLIGHT RISK   AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS OF SEVERE RISK WITHIN THE BROADER   RISK AREA RESERVED FOR LATER OUTLOOKS.
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No Day 4-8 risk areas posted yet but SPC not ruling out severe in part of this subforum for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0340 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   WHILE GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUT SHOWS LARGE-SCALE/GENERAL SIMILARITY   THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6-7...DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT EVEN EARLY ON WITH   THE DETAILS IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF MORE SUBTLE FEATURES   /THOSE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAILY CONVECTIVE EPISODES/.  THE   LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS ALOFT BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL...WITH   A RELATIVELY FLAT/ZONAL H5 PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD SUGGESTIVE OF   MEMBER-TO-MEMBER OFFSETS IN LOCATION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGES AND   TROUGHS.    IN GENERAL...HINTS THAT SOME SEVERE RISK WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY DAY 4 EXIST WITHIN BOTH THE ECMWF AND   GFS...AND POSSIBLY WWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.  DETAILS THOUGH   REMAIN QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF   PREDICTABILITY OF SMALLER-SCALE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW FIELD.   FOCUS FOR SEVERE RISK SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT NWWD TOWARD THE NRN   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AREA/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE DAYS 5-6   TIME FRAME...WITH A SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO SHIFT W-E ACROSS THIS   REGION.  AGAIN HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION OF FEATURES   PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING OF SPECIFIC RISK AREAS.     WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DEVIATIONS INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF   THE PERIOD -- EVEN WITH LARGER-SCALE FEATURES...AN OVERALL LACK OF   CERTAINTY/CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATING AREAS OF GREATER   SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD SUGGESTS MAINTENANCE OF   LOW-PREDICTABILITY WORDING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.   ..GOSS.. 07/01/2016
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12z NAM stronger/slower and more north than 00z run...don't think that wound up solution will happen

 

12z gfs so far a touch stronger and a touch more north

 

assuming NAM is going 50% overboard compared to 00z....both models trending slightly stronger and slightly more north....

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Looks like the axis of heaviest rain has been shifting north of models as of late. It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues. Don't see why not with lack of blocking to our north

 

 

The initial sfc high/dry air feed is a concern. 

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