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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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23 hours ago, Roy said:

I am usually of the mind to wait to call winter cancel, but this is getting alarming. Still plenty of time to turn around though.

The first shot of solid chilly air will be here this weekend with frost possible in rural areas. This week looks pretty warm though until Friday or so when the front flips us to chilly air and a brisk N wind. I really hope we get some rain though eventually, the SE ridge is nosing a bit too far west for my liking.

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On 11/13/2016 at 10:46 AM, Roy said:

I am usually of the mind to wait to call winter cancel, but this is getting alarming. Still plenty of time to turn around though.

I wouldn't start worrying until January rolls around and we haven't seen any positive signs. Wayyy too early. 

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The PDO went up in October (JISAO) to 0.56

It took me a while, but Dec-Feb 1937-38, 1943-44, 1959-60, 1983-84 work well as a good match for the oceanic pattern right now. Those years had a PDO value in Nov-Apr of 0.58, an ONI value of -0.28 in DJF, and an AMO value of 0.146 from Nov-Apr.

Central/Modoki La Nina, weak, cool pool off Japan & Russia, West Coast warmth wrapping west south of Japan cold pool, stripe of warmth along US east coast, cooler in eastern Atlantic. Oceans fairly cold south of the equator. It's not a perfect match, but eyeballing it, I'd say it's 80-85%?

 

Winter Ocean Match.png

Winter Ocean Match.png

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I love 83-84.  Love love love.  Second most memorable winter for DFW.  But to be honest, the background state is so much different.  I don't know how you build a dome of cold like December 83 or even February of 1899.  The globe is generally warm, particularly in NA.  The cold over in eurasia won't help us if it has to go across a sea with less than normal ice and Canada without snow.  

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31 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

I love 83-84.  Love love love.  Second most memorable winter for DFW.  But to be honest, the background state is so much different.  I don't know how you build a dome of cold like December 83 or even February of 1899.  The globe is generally warm, particularly in NA.  The cold over in eurasia won't help us if it has to go across a sea with less than normal ice and Canada without snow.  

If it makes any sense, I think the pattern of 1983-84 is a decent match, but the warmer Earth/less ice against 1983-84 is part of why I have the winter fairly backloaded away from the east coast. I had NM/AZ and much of the interior west/mountainous areas warm Oct-Dec. Doesn't really look wrong. I do think TX starts to cool off a week or two before we do though. The cold coming off Asia should eventually cool the Pacific enough to allow the Arctic ice to build up pretty rapidly - especially since I think this winter has real blocking...but it is transient and no where near permanent.

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The JAMSTEC (Japan's model) has trended much wetter for NM/CO/TX for the winter. New Mexico went from 0.1-0.6mm below normal/day for 90 days (0.35-2.1 inches of precip below normal) to w/in 0.1mm/day of average for 90 days, i.e. w/in 0.35" of normal. Pretty big shift towards moisture for us. The West Coast looks a lot drier than before too, as does the East Coast.

Bit cooler too, from "very warm" (+3F) to "slightly warm (+1F). 

 

Jamstec - wetter.png

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Today will be very windy across NM and W TX with winds gusting to near 60 mph and even higher in the mountains. This system looks to come through dry out there outside of high elevation snow showers above the resorts. The front will move into N and E TX tonight bringing showers followed by falling temps through the day tomorrow. Temps could fall into the low 50s by tomorrow evening. The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Saturday morning will likely be in the 37-45 range (the less wind the colder it will get). Sunday morning will likely feature widespread frost with some spots below freezing.

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1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

Today will be very windy across NM and W TX with winds gusting to near 60 mph and even higher in the mountains. This system looks to come through dry out there outside of high elevation snow showers above the resorts. The front will move into N and E TX tonight bringing showers followed by falling temps through the day tomorrow. Temps could fall into the low 50s by tomorrow evening. The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Saturday morning will likely be in the 37-45 range (the less wind the colder it will get). Sunday morning will likely feature widespread frost with some spots below freezing.

FWD has the point forecast low at 33 for the areas around me. So it wouldn't take much more for some in the northern areas to see the 1st freeze of the season. Also, maybe a rumble of thunder tonight!?

CxeCH32UQAEd8Yi.jpg

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1 hour ago, bubba hotep said:

FWD has the point forecast low at 33 for the areas around me. So it wouldn't take much more for some in the northern areas to see the 1st freeze of the season. Also, maybe a rumble of thunder tonight!?

CxeCH32UQAEd8Yi.jpg

It does appear that there could be enough instability for a few storms of some intensity late today.

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8 minutes ago, DoctorMu said:

Think we'll see a warm and dry winter.  However, there should be occasional polar blasts as Siberia is already in the deep freeze with a mammoth snow pack.

Just curious why do you say that? At least for December, it looks cold with lots of blocking over the top setting up a parade of southern stream cold storms. Very cold air is possible if we can get a NE Pac ridge.

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I had tons of lightning at my house this morning. The front looks to be moving into Tyler now so the rain is about to be over here and temps will fall to around 60.

Signs are clearly pointing towards a cold December. If the EPO stays close to neutral I expect cool to cold with regular storms coming across our region. If the EPO dives then I expect bitter cold, but less storminess. I'll happily take either.

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Man things continue to look up! 18z GEFS is another positive sign with the US in the ice box the 1st week of Dec. Also, a theme that seems to be emerging is the cold diving right down the spin of the Rockies. The past couple of years it has seemed like every cold shot slide off to the east and we only got a glancing blow. 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_12.png

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Now that its getting relatively cold - two frosts here in ABQ) - I dug out & updated my "gambler's snow tables" for Albuquerque. It's a good way later in the season to see if the computer models are spitting out bull. The table reminded me how awful most La Ninas are in the Southwest for snow. I'm 5,300 feet above sea level, but the odds of getting even 3.5" snow in a MONTH, not even a storm, a MONTH, are only a coin-flip in a La Nina based on 1931-32 to 2015-16.

One of these years we're going to get actual notable precipitation in March again and the items I've marked overdue should begin to fall more readily. We haven't had a March within even 20% of the long-term average (0.5") since 2007, so it would be nice if it happened this year. One thing is for sure, given the bubkis precipitation we get last March, even as it snowed in Guadalajara - check out Nieves en Guadalajara on twitter - we can't get less precipitation in March than last year. 

Snow Gambling Tables.png

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Looks like the first real snow for the NM mountains just in time for some powder for TWeek skiing. This looks to bring the first decent rain in a long time to E TX tomorrow. The post TDay storm looks to bring the first real storms of the Fall followed by chilly air. Then our first winter weather threat of the season comes in early December with -EPO, -NAO and severe -AO.

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