Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[aggiegeog]

43 this morning for a new low for this Fall season. I think we are on track for an area wide frost around Nov. 8-12th and an overall cold start to winter. The GoA is warm and will lead to a predominately -EPO winter plus the -AO continues and will stick with the rapid snow growth in Asia and NA supporting an early breakup of the PV which is very weak in the first place this Fall. The La Nada should prevent much of a STJ this winter so look for storms to come out of the NW so big cold but lacking in precip. Our big precip will come from lows that develop on the lee of the Rockies and move across Texas, these seem likely to provide some severe weather this winter also. So overall I expect periodic cold with below normal precip though a few winter storms seem likely and if they time out with a big -AO then snow is likely otherwise our standard sleet and freezing rain. Should be am interesting winter with no dominant player in the atmosphere.

[raindancewx]

16 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

I'm starting to get on board with those who're going with a much warmer than normal winter.  I hate to be a gloomy gus, but right now DFW is on pace to shatter the record for warmest October.  We are at 75.3 for the month.  The next on the list is 1938 at 73.1.  Looking at other anomalously warm Octobers and you see nothing but dog winters.  last year's El Niño really did a job on us last year.  I fear the hangover might carry over into this one as well.  

I think the warmth is definitely part of the winter pattern, my idea has been that the West would be quite warm in Nov, and especially Dec, with the east quite warm in January and to some extent into February. My issue with permanent warmth is the Summer - there were cold spots, and they were widespread at times and they moved a lot. I think we see a lot of movement in where the cold is this winter too. September also saw incredible heat in the East, with the West relatively cool, which I think bodes well for March or April.

 

[bubba hotep]

On 10/21/2016 at 11:10 PM, Quixotic1 said:

I'm starting to get on board with those who're going with a much warmer than normal winter.  I hate to be a gloomy gus, but right now DFW is on pace to shatter the record for warmest October.  We are at 75.3 for the month.  The next on the list is 1938 at 73.1.  Looking at other anomalously warm Octobers and you see nothing but dog winters.  last year's El Niño really did a job on us last year.  I fear the hangover might carry over into this one as well.  

After this brief cool down, October is going to end torching with above normal temps looking locked in until November. Then  the start of November looks bad as well but things might finally start to shift to a cooler patter by mid-November. However, we played that game all last winter with winter always just being two weeks away. 

[DFWWeather]

On ‎10‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 11:10 PM, Quixotic1 said:

I'm starting to get on board with those who're going with a much warmer than normal winter.  I hate to be a gloomy gus, but right now DFW is on pace to shatter the record for warmest October.  We are at 75.3 for the month.  The next on the list is 1938 at 73.1.  Looking at other anomalously warm Octobers and you see nothing but dog winters.  last year's El Niño really did a job on us last year.  I fear the hangover might carry over into this one as well.  

This is true that warm October's correlate to warm winters at DFW. However, there is an exception and that is 1947-48. That October was also on the warm side but that winter was very cold (see below).  However, I'm starting to worry as well that this will be another blow torch winter. Especially with the Arctic as warm as it has been. If the signals come together for cold to be delivered, but there really isn't much cold to deliver, then it can be all that cold right?

So far we have not fallen, officially at DFW Airport, below 50°F (although I know Arlington and Fort Worth both have). There have only been 4 years where this hasn't happened in October, 1947, 1950, 2004, 2015. 2016 will likely join the ranks as year number five. All of those were warm winters except for 1947-48 (very cold against averages), 1950-51 (slightly cold against averages, although lowest temp was 6°F that winter).

Winter 1947-48 overall was -5.1 below normal

December was -4.4 below normal with the coldest temp of 27°F.

January was -7.5 below normal with 3 distinct snow/ice events with a prolonged Arctic outbreak. The first snow event was on 1/19/48 with 2.0 inches of snow in a WAA pattern form Artic outbreak which began on 1/17/48 with coldest temp of 16°F. The big Arctic outbreak began on 1/24/48 and lasted through 1/30/48 with 6 consecutive days of subfreezing temps. Two snow events culminated in a total of 6.2 inches of snow/ice with lowest temp of 11°F during period and for the month.

February was -3.6 below normal with two major ice storms. One on 2/8/48 0.4 ice followed by low of 19°F. The second over two days 2/12 - 2/13 resulting in 0.5 ice followed by low of 21°F. This look to be more of WAA ice storm. Coldest temp of the month was 19°F.

Winter 1950-51 was -0.3 below normal for winter...

It did have a major Arctic outbreak the end of January into early February 1951 that left 5 days consecutive of subfreezing temps. The lowest temp was 6°F and 8°F on two separate days. There was snow and ice up to 2 inches during this outbreak. Another snow storm of 3.0 inches occurred on 2/14/51 with lowest temp of 21°F.

[aggiegeog]

The weather station nearest my house has averaged 83.9/60.3 so far this month. Normal at Tyler to date is 79/57.2. The lack of precip is partly to blame with only about 2" so far this month which is the difference between a strong El Nino last year and a cool neutral this year.

Above average snow pack in Asia and NW Canada and a building snowpack in Alaska should allow cold air to begin building and very weak Polar Vortex this year will keep the cold from being bottled up this winter. The lack of a STJ should prevent much overrunning moisture over the shallow -EPO fronts this winter so I expect rapid swings between mild and cold. My concern for this winter will be that the cold gets focused on the Great Lakes and we have a strong SE ridge that tries to nose into eastern Texas preventing the backdoor fronts from making it here. 

[bubba hotep]

Another warm October analog that seems to jive some what with the current ENSO evolution is 2000. The winter of '00 - '01 ended up being pretty cold overall. The below are hotlinks but I'll try to update them to saved images later when I get off the plane:

October 2000

 

Dec - Feb '00 - '01

 

So a warm October is not a lock for a warm winter in DFW. It will be interesting see how things evolve but it is hard to bet against a torch of a winter  , despite what some of the better analogs show.

The latest Euro Weeklies have snow showing up in DFW in the mean and the control run! It looks to flip things to cold after the first week of November, that seems a little quick based on what I'm seeing. Still think that we are warm into the 2nd week before flipping but would love to be wrong on that.  

[aggiegeog]

Models are starting to see the flip. My 11/8 freeze date may be a tad early but likely not by much. As long as the cold does not set up over the Lakes we look to be in good shape for the winter. The bigtime snow buildup over NW Canada seems to bode well for Arctic highs sliding down the lee of the Rockies this winter.

[bubba hotep]

6 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Models are starting to see the flip. My 11/8 freeze date may be a tad early but likely not by much. As long as the cold does not set up over the Lakes we look to be in good shape for the winter. The bigtime snow buildup over NW Canada seems to bode well for Arctic highs sliding down the lee of the Rockies this winter.

Yea, hopefully the cooling Pacific ENSO regions will keep the PNA from being jacked up all winter. Last year the DJF PNA was +0.78, +2.02, +1.48 and that helped keep what little cold air there was well off to our NE. 

[raindancewx]

For what it's worth, Albuquerque (5,350 feet at the airport) hasn't had a freeze yet either. First freeze date (<=32F) varies a lot here, but is always in Oct or Nov, and usually right around Halloween here. Our coldest temperature this fall is still from Sept - got down to 42F...on Sept 24th...a month ago (!). First freeze will hopefully come by Nov 10.

For mean highs since 1931 in Albuquerque, this is likely to be the fourth hottest October - behind 1950, 1952, and 1979. The period from July 1947 to June 1957 was incredibly dry here, with notoriously warm late summers and early falls, so the 50s being over-represented makes sense to me, and the late 70s had very hot/dry Julys too. For whatever reason though, a warm October (for mean highs) is actually pretty decent for winter snowfall here - but it does take a while to cool off, not til Jan/Feb. These are the warmest Octobers in Albuquerque, followed by snow.

Also worth noting, when the mean high drops off by a small amount from Sept to Oct, (Sept mean high-Oct mean high<=9.6F) Feb snow is favored here too. The 2016 Sept to Oct drop off will be 83.2F to ~76F. Snow of over 3" in February isn't super common here, so the difference between heavy snow following a very warm Oct, when highs avg over 75F, and all other Februaries is statistically significant, 5 out of 10 against 14 out of 75, generates a P value under 0.05.

[Quixotic1]

00-01 was a good winter.  Most of the damage was done in December.  Multiple events.  First week featured FZRA second week IP and SN and TRSN the last two weeks.  On the 27th I was trying to put some toys together for the kids and heard lots of thunder.  Picked up a quick 6" in about an hour and a half.  Went out and had snowball fight with the neighbors' kids.  Big fist sized flakes.  

[raindancewx]

I had the southern 1/3 of the US wet in Nov, and the East Coast wet in Nov, so this is promising to me:

[bubba hotep]

Ugly... just Ugly...

[Quixotic1]

2 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Ugly... just Ugly...

On the bright side, 63-64 was a terrific winter.  Measurable snow for all four months.

[raindancewx]

February 1964 was incredibly cold in the Southwest too, after being very warm in October. We're finishing our 4th warmest October (mean highs) and 2nd warmest October (mean temps) in ABQ. For whatever reason, February seems to favored for snow in the Southwest if the warmth of September lingers into October, or just generally if October is very warm. 

If nothing else, in ABQ our ten warmest Octobers don't seem to indicate warm winters at any especially high rate - it's 2/10 that are at least +2F for mean highs, against 18/75 for winters following an October that is near normal or cold. Not statistically significant. I still like warm Oct-Dec, cold in either Jan or Feb, and a decent snowstorm in late Jan or early Feb for my area, and probably for much of TX & AZ.

I think for ABQ mean highs end up very close to normal (49.5F) for Dec-Feb, even after a warm start in Dec.

[DFWWeather]

1963-64 was terrific winter but is different to me than currently. After all, that warm October of 63 did at least see us drop below 50°F during the month. However, I think for a near term analog for DFW based on what is happening 1950-51 doesn't look too bad. The 1950-51 was slightly below normal overall but a very up and down winter with major arctic blasts in December, January, and February with snow and ice to boot. I have seen a lot of talk about 1983-84 and 1984-85 winters being weighted twice as analogs for this winter, but I just think both of those are extremes for us and not good analogs. Besides aren't the SST from those years quite different than now? I mean the AMO was in the negative phase, as was 1963-64.

[cstrunk]

I'm not a good forecaster, but does anyone see any hope at all for any kind of severe weather in the central/east Texas areas? The fall severe weather season has been a dud around here.

[aggiegeog]

It looks like near normal temperatures will finally return by late this week and a decent shot a rain returns early next week courtesy of a SW cutoff low as long as it makes it far enough east to affect E TX. Late next week could turn pretty chilly with highs in the 60s and maybe even cooler. The 1983 analog is looking pretty good, SSTs in the Atlantic and Pacific are very similar and Arctic Sea ice was a bit less then but pretty similar. We all know how it continued to get colder through November and by mid December we had our coldest multi-week stretch in modern history back 33 years ago.

[aggiegeog]

It looks like the first big snow of the season is going to occur late this week for the mountains of NM. Significant snow levels may stay above 10,000 feet though it could drop to 9,000 or so feet. Upper portions of TSV and SSF could see over a foot from this. The other resorts may be too low for significant accumulations, but it will be close temperature wise and in the mountains you can usually bet that if close it will snow. More snow is likely with next week's storm. 

[bubba hotep]

At least it looks wetter for DFW over the next couple of weeks. However, raging Pacific jet and +PNA looks to keep any cold air off the menu. 

[wxmx]

Early November and my early swim laps are still a delight in an open air pool

 

Just a couple of weak cold fronts have gone through MBY, when the average should be closer to 5-6. Tampico had 8" of rain yesterday (my parents live there) in less than 3 hours, with rainfall rates of 5"/hr at times (close to 6"/h at some point). Flash flooding was tremendous. This happens when there's still and abundant pool of moisture and a very warm Gulf still, while upper atmosphere is slowly cooling, even a weak disturbance can get these things going in a violent fashion.

[Chinook]

flash flood threat in New Mexico. WPC mesoscale precip. discussion:

SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN AZ INTO WRN NM INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... 

CONTINUED TRAINING AXES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AZ INTO WRN NM THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALIZED RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. 

 

[raindancewx]

The CPC had weak La Nina conditions for the second tri-monthly period in a row. July-Sept has been updated to -0.6C (from -0.5C) and Aug-Oct is listed as -0.7C. I'm expecting the La Nina to peak in Sept-Nov, hold fairly steady in Oct-Dec, and then weaken rather quickly. May make a good run at -1.0C though (could peak at -0.9C or so). Should be a "stronger" La Nina than the 2014-2015 El Nino was in terms of deviations from 0.0C anomalies. Part of me thinks we go into a stronger La Nina next year after a brief warm up, but there isn't a whole lot of evidence for that at the moment.

It's definitely a Modoki - Nino 1.2 is currently around +0.7C by tropical tidbits, and the western tropical Pacific is warm too.

[raindancewx]

Albuquerque (airport) got 0.66" precip Nov 1-5. That's already well above our monthly average of 0.46" precip. I'm a bit worried about my call for a warm November now. Every inch of precipitation in November lowers the mean high in November by 3.9F historically, so we're now favored to be a degree or so below normal for the month - and that's assuming it doesn't rain or snow again for the rest of the month. The most similar years since 1931 with this much precip in early November here are 1933, 1946, 1957, 1986, 1990...and those years averaged 0.97" precipitation.

Snowpack also recovered a fair bit with the recent moisture.

 

[Quixotic1]

Heard rumbles of thunder off and on tonight with little on the radar indicating any type of convection.

[bubba hotep]

Just under 4" IMBY this morning to add to the 1/2 inch from the weekend. Not too bad but some areas had over 5" by last night. This ended up being a pretty nice system for DFW. 

[aggiegeog]

We have had very little rain out of all of this, maybe a quarter inch, it has all been north or south of I-20 in East Texas.

[DFWWeather]

DFW Airport sets another unprecedented record today. It still has not fallen below 50°F officially. Last year set the latest record of doing so on November 8, 2015. Unless we can manage to do so in the next couple of days (and it might be close), this is really going to be some record of being the latest ever to fall below 50°F. On top of which, when is it going to get colder? I thought for sure the drop of the SOI at the end of October would have forced the pattern change. GFS is on board for later next week for a real cold front, but the ECMWF has been waffling back and forth with the latest runs deflecting all the cold air to the east. My hopes for any winter a really going down with each passing day.

[raindancewx]

This will be the latest it's ever dropped to 40F or lower in ABQ too. Can't speak for TX, but warm Octobers, especially if October is nearly as warm as Sept, tend to favor big snow late (Jan-Apr) and cold/snowy February in particular. This actually seems to be known, as it is a saying. Haven't tested the other folklore though. 

http://www.stormfax.com/wxfolk.htm

We've had (already) a wet November here - which is pretty rare in La Nina / Neutral years, but it does tend to favor near normal snow overall.

[bubba hotep]

On 11/8/2016 at 11:30 AM, DFWWeather said:

DFW Airport sets another unprecedented record today. It still has not fallen below 50°F officially. Last year set the latest record of doing so on November 8, 2015. Unless we can manage to do so in the next couple of days (and it might be close), this is really going to be some record of being the latest ever to fall below 50°F. On top of which, when is it going to get colder? I thought for sure the drop of the SOI at the end of October would have forced the pattern change. GFS is on board for later next week for a real cold front, but the ECMWF has been waffling back and forth with the latest runs deflecting all the cold air to the east. My hopes for any winter a really going down with each passing day.

All the signs were there back in October for a flip to colder by mid-Nov but that isn't going to happen. It is looking more and more like this will be torch of a winter! I just hope we can luck out and get a couple of strong cold shots to break up the lameness of continued warmth. Only problem, currently there is no cold air on our side of the globe and our source region is just non stop torching.

[aggiegeog]

On 11/8/2016 at 11:30 AM, DFWWeather said:

DFW Airport sets another unprecedented record today. It still has not fallen below 50°F officially. Last year set the latest record of doing so on November 8, 2015. Unless we can manage to do so in the next couple of days (and it might be close), this is really going to be some record of being the latest ever to fall below 50°F. On top of which, when is it going to get colder? I thought for sure the drop of the SOI at the end of October would have forced the pattern change. GFS is on board for later next week for a real cold front, but the ECMWF has been waffling back and forth with the latest runs deflecting all the cold air to the east. My hopes for any winter a really going down with each passing day.

Today matched the seasonal low at my house with 43. We have been in the 40s 6 or 7 times already. All of East Texas down to Lufkin fell into the 40s with some 30s this morning.