aggiegeog Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 All signs point to a 2010 event still though this event is much colder at upper levels and colder even at the surface. Ratios could well be closer to the 10:1 or even better under the ULL. There will likely be some 12 inch and higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I know which one I hope happens and I’m setting up a measuring area in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 NWS office upgraded Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. They went with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Metroplex. The southwest quadrant of Tarrant is likely to see more than 3 inches and because of that, I think Tarrant County should have been included in the Warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 NAM creeping northward with those higher totals. I get the feeling that by noon tomorrow the whole metroplex will be under the Winter Storm Warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Hey guys, I've been trying to follow this closely, but am not very knowledgeable at all in winter weather forecasting/model interpretation (other than staring at snow maps). I appreciate all the insight that y'all are sharing and discussing. I am currently outside any watch/warning/advisory here in Collin County, but I too want in on the action 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 58 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: NWS office upgraded Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. They went with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Metroplex. The southwest quadrant of Tarrant is likely to see more than 3 inches and because of that, I think Tarrant County should have been included in the Warning. By tomorrow the warnings will stretch from eastern NM to western MS. I def think Tarrant will warrant a warning but depends some on where bands set up as the ULL will miss DFW to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 There is another storm lined up for next weekend. This blocking over Canada looks to stay in place and even grow stronger over the weeks ahead. We will have plenty more shots at snow over the coming months. Not going to be the warm dry winter many predicted. ENSO is only a part of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Anyone know if there's a reason that HRRR depicting more rain than snow for DFW in the last few runs? Hope that's not the case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, vwgrrc said: Anyone know if there's a reason that HRRR depicting more rain than snow for DFW in the last few runs? Hope that's not the case! Higher surface temps/dewpoints. Also, the lighter precipitation rates struggle to sufficiently cool the column down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: Higher surface temps/dewpoints. Also, the lighter precipitation rates struggle to sufficiently cool the column down to the surface. Thanks. But would that be a trustworthy solution at this point? 0z NAM seems showing virtually all snow for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Looks like DFW is about to strike out yet again. At this point anyone should be extremely skeptical of any snowfall forecast here until the flakes start falling. Hilarious that lucy has yanked the proverbial football out from under everyone when there has been *so much precedent* for a low-side forecast busts since 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The 06z NAM is actually a really good run for the DFW metro, it has 2-3 inches all the way up to parts of Denton & Collin counties. HRRR gets worse every run it appears and we'd be lucky to end up with a dusting. Don't know what to trust at this point but I am not very confident, I've seen this same story play out far too many times, and it's never the ending we want. Almost that time where models are pointless and we will just need to start watching the radar and obs and see what happens. I feel the same way almost everyone else here does, it has been sooo long since DFW has a had a true "slam dunk" winter weather event that we weren't sweating until the last minute. To twist the knife just a bit more, even the Houston suburbs have had better winter weather luck over the last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said: The 06z NAM is actually a really good run for the DFW metro, it has 2-3 inches all the way up to parts of Denton & Collin counties. HRRR gets worse every run it appears and we'd be lucky to end up with a dusting. Don't know what to trust at this point but I am not very confident, I've seen this same story play out far too many times, and it's never the ending we want. HRRR is almost always better accuracy-wise short term yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 NWS Shreveport upgraded the area along and south of I-20 to a WSW with a WWA for the I-30 corridor. They are advertising 2-4" in the warning area. Their forecast closely matches mine for East Texas. I think areas around Lufkin could get more but totals down their may be cut by sleet. Up along I-20 looks like we will have to deal with some rain during the day today given our distance from the upper level low. Tyler should still get a solid 3" of snow, but not the crazy 6"+ amounts that we could have had if it was all snow during the day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 It is ripping here with big fat flakes. No accumulation though (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, Powerball said: It is ripping here with big fat flakes. No accumulation though (so far). Yeah was for a bit further west of you but nothing has stuck. That may be the story with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: Yeah was for a bit further west of you but nothing has stuck. That may be the story with this event Snow has tapered off, and only left a dusting in isolated patches on the grass and rooftops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Snow has tapered off, and only left a dusting in isolated patches on the grass and rooftops. Yeah accumulations wise this is looking like a big bust for east of 35 and north of 20. Our drought of inch+ snowfall continues at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 A little over 2" in Longview, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Ended up with close to 2". Hearing that roads are good this morning around here thankfully. Another ULL crosses the state tomorrow night though it will be moisture starved. Maybe some light rain for central Texas tomorrow evening and maybe some sprinkles or flurries tomorrow night for E and SE Texas. The next significant storm comes this weekend with rain or snow for much of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFreeze6298 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 12" North LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Looks like there ended up with a nearly continuous band of 6"+ snow amounts from SE NM down to College Station and up through N LA. Isolated 10"+ in spots. DFW had a dusting to 1" though just south of DFW had 6". I had 2" but only had to go 10 miles south to see 4"+. There was a heavy strip of ~8" from Madisonville up to Jacksonville. Basically anyone north of I-10 at least saw snow flakes, even SA saw a dusting. Downtown Houston barely missed though they likely had some sleet mixed in. I am pretty happy with my forecast map though I under-forecasted the intensity of the main band also missed the B/CS area stuff that busted my forecast high in central East Texas. I mainly got the locations correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I compared the final tally vs my original forecast I put out last Thursday. Both bad though like most everyone I had the main band too far north by about 50 miles. Thankfully I never wavered much between these two maps which I am pleased with. The models went kinda crazy in the 72-48 hour range which made things hard to follow so I stuck with persistence until things became more clear on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Halfway through winter and not another winter storm in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The 6-10 day outlook from CPC yesterday looked pretty warm for Texas. Long-term, a big +SOI December value is a very strong indicator for a warm February in the South, usually including Texas. Although the signal is weaker the further west you get. December 2020 was +16, 5th highest SOI value since 1931. I don't know that winter is over in Texas, but Texas weather is pretty strongly correlated to warmth when the PNA goes in the wrong phase like it is about to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 2:11 PM, raindancewx said: The 6-10 day outlook from CPC yesterday looked pretty warm for Texas. Long-term, a big +SOI December value is a very strong indicator for a warm February in the South, usually including Texas. Although the signal is weaker the further west you get. December 2020 was +16, 5th highest SOI value since 1931. I don't know that winter is over in Texas, but Texas weather is pretty strongly correlated to warmth when the PNA goes in the wrong phase like it is about to. The 1931-32 winter in Texas (at least for DFW) was one of the hottest winters on record. In fact, during December through February the lowest minimum temp was only 29°F. However, March of 1932 was pretty cold and we finally recorded a low of 22°F. That month there was 9 consecutive days with temps 20 below normal on average. It is pretty alarming how close we are following that winter this season. The lowest minimum so far 27°F which ties the all time hottest record for a winter season set in 2015-2016. The vast majority of our winters see the temp dip below 20°F at least one time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The 1931-32 winter was a cold ENSO winter that followed two El Ninos - fairly rare in the last 90 years. So I did look at it when I did my forecast. That year is severely cold in the West though, and so it hasn't been a great match for the US overall. The distribution of cold highs (<=55F) where I am is uncannily similar to 1936-37, I'm curious to see if that continues. I'll put out a Spring Outlook at some point in the next three weeks, but I am struggling with March at the moment. March 1965 and March 2012 are both very good matches to what I think the La Nina will look like in Spring, but one is incredibly cold in March, and one is incredibly hot. The other similar years are in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 SPC has added much of northern TX and a portion of southeast OK to a 15% Day 4 risk area. I guess if we can't have winter, we might as well have storms! The dreary rainy/misty/cloudy days this week are not much fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: The dreary rainy/misty/cloudy days this week are not much fun. With our luck, D4 is also gonna be a dreary rainy/misty/cloudy day. In all seriousness, I'm intrigued by the setup. Still some uncertainties, as noted by the SPC in their outlook (cap, degree of surface-based instability, etc.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 21 hours ago, TexMexWx said: With our luck, D4 is also gonna be a dreary rainy/misty/cloudy day. In all seriousness, I'm intrigued by the setup. Still some uncertainties, as noted by the SPC in their outlook (cap, degree of surface-based instability, etc.) On the Day 3 outlook, SPC removed all mention of severe thunderstorm potential for Sunday. Seems like those uncertainties might have won out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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