radarman Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 000 NOUS44 KFWD 252255 PNSFWD TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261100- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 455 PM CST WED NOV 25 2020 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR ARLINGTON TORNADO EVENT ON NOVEMBER 24... .ARLINGTON TORNADO 11/24/20... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EVENING OF NOVEMBER 24, 2020. MOST OF THE DAMAGE WAS ATTRIBUTED TO STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, HOWEVER, AN NWS SURVEY CREW DETERMINED THAT AN EF2 TORNADO STRUCK PORTIONS OF ARLINGTON JUST BEFORE 9 PM. RATING: EF2 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5.0448 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 5 START DATE: 11/24/2020 START TIME: 08:51 PM CST START LOCATION: 1 E DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS / TARRANT COUNTY / TX START LAT/LON: 32.692 / -97.1472 END DATE: 11/24/2020 END TIME: 08:58 PM CST END LOCATION: 3 WNW GRAND PRAIRIE / TARRANT COUNTY / TX END LAT/LON: 32.7204 / -97.0684 SURVEY SUMMARY: AN EF-2 TORNADO MOVED THROUGH ARLINGTON PRODUCING MOSTLY EF-0 AND EF-1 DAMAGE, BUT A SMALL AREA OF EF-2 DAMAGE WAS FOUND. THE TORNADO BEGAN NEAR WEST MAYFIELD ROAD AND SOUTH BOWMAN ROAD WHERE FENCE, SHED AND TREE DAMAGE WAS FOUND. THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOCATION CAUSING MINOR TREE DAMAGE. SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL STRUCTURES WAS NOTED ALONG COLORADO LANE. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED SOUTH COOPER STREET AND DAMAGED A BURGER BOX FAST FOOD RESTAURANT, SAFELITE AUTOGLASS STORE, AND SEVERAL WAREHOUSES IN THE AREA. THE TORNADO DAMAGE IN THIS LOCATION AND ALONG COLORADO LANE WAS AT EF-1 INTENSITY. THE TORNADO CONTINUED ALONG AN EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK WHERE IT SOON IMPACTED THE WATERDANCE AND MIRAGE APARTMENTS. CONSIDERABLE ROOF DAMAGE WAS NOTED AT THESE COMPLEXES, BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED AT THE WATERDANCE APARTMENT COMPLEX. LARGE SECTIONS OF THE ROOF WERE RIPPED OFF OF TWO BUILDINGS, RESULTING IN AN EF-2 RATING AT THIS LOCATION. FROM THE APARTMENT COMPLEX, THE TORNADO WEAKENED AND TRAVELED NORTHEAST FOR A FEW MORE MILES BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR EAST PARK ROW DRIVE AND CARTER DRIVE. SPORADIC TREE, SIDING, FENCE, AND SHINGLE DAMAGE WAS NOTED TO THE END OF THE PATH. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS TORNADO WERE AROUND 115 MPH. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $$ JLDUNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 I have my doubts about these totals (I'd have gone T-1"), but we'll see. Storm is behaving a bit differently than anticipated and has a bit more moisture too. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 248 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 NMZ218-219-280400- /O.EXB.KABQ.WW.Y.0020.201128T0600Z-201128T1600Z/ Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- 248 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one to 3 inches. * WHERE...Santa Fe Metro Area and Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The city ended up seeing nothing - not even measurable rain with the advisory storm. Latest models have the mountains getting snow the next few days, but not too much. The Euro has been showing a bigger storm grabbing subtropical moisture starting around 12/5 or 12/6. It's shown for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Nacogdoches made it down to 19 this morning, Tyler made it to 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The Euro lost the storm down here on the most recent run. If that continues, we're not getting jack in the city until at least 12/10 or so. Anything that comes through with the current system(s) will be at most a dusting to an inch of snow and I expect nothing. Hoping the cold verifies at least. The local observations haven't been working so it is hard to tell if the cold front has arrived at the airport. It is windy here. Edit: I got 0.2", and the airport got nothing. But the Westside and towns north of the city got 2-6", even locally up to 8 inches of snow. So much for that. The 3-km NAM actually have a pretty good area of snow just north of the city and that worked out fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 That's probably the most moisture I've seen a model show in Arizona in at least six months. Not thrilled to see the Euro changing the location of the moisture every 12 hours, but the trend in increasing moisture is nice to see. A lot of it will likely be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I went with 0.1-0.4 inches of precipitation for Albuquerque with the coming system. Pretty decent snows are likely for the mountains. There was another SOI crash last night of 10 points, so I'll be on the lookout for a system around 12/19. Something tends to come through in the 12/26-12/30 time frame in NM/CO, so I'd expect two more decent storms after this one as a minimum, so we'll have a shot a wetter than average December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Cold rain coming Sunday. Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Red River counties of N and NE TX could see a dusting of snow later today. Heavy snow in OK. Upper 30s to low 40s and wet for N and NE TX today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Last two systems really helped take snowpack here from pretty awful, to near average north and lousy south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Saw that Angel Fire dipped to -21 Wednesday morning. Man it gets cold there on ideal radiational cooling nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Tornado watch out for Beaumont, TX area into Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Tornado Warning LAC079-240400- /O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0088.201224T0324Z-201224T0400Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 924 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Rapides Parish in central Louisiana... * Until 1000 PM CST. * At 924 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Glenmora, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Lecompte around 945 PM CST. Cheneyville around 950 PM CST. Poland and Echo around 955 PM CST. Ruby around 1000 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Woodworth, Forest Hill and Mcnary. This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 58 and 75. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3127 9223 3115 9223 3114 9222 3112 9223 3102 9222 3098 9236 3100 9239 3099 9241 3097 9242 3096 9245 3092 9263 3109 9270 3129 9224 TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 248DEG 33KT 3104 9258 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Looks to me like there is a non-trivial chance of seeing all the main indexes that support cold in New Mexico to be in the favorable cold positions in January. Essentially a +WPO and then blocking with a low by Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Not a lock just yet, but increasingly looks like this December will finish with every day seeing a high below 60 degrees, and every morning seeing a low 32 degrees or colder. Both are pretty rare in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Snow chances are increasing for the northern half of Texas after mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Someone in a Waco to DFW to Texarkana triangle is in line for a big time snow event with strong winds on NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'll believe any winter weather when I see it. Pretty rare setups haven't "busted" last-minute in recent years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The pattern so far this season is for all the models to have deep cold air and then back off as we get closer to the cold spell. I already see this trend starting to happen in all of the 6z models with this New Year's Eve event. While the track of the upper low is ideal, the source region and the depth of the cold have been questionable from the get go on this event. There is no true Arctic air involved. We will see how the models trend as we get closer. My gut feeling for DFW is that this is a cold rain with maybe a few sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in. We have a decent stratospheric warming event taking shape and 50/50 teleconnections in our favor (-AO, +PNA, -NAO) for developing Arctic cold in about 7 to 10 days. Time will tell if this can translate into some verifiable cold air. We have only hit 28°F at DFW as the coldest low and the winter is 1/3rd over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, DFWWeather said: My gut feeling for DFW is that this is a cold rain with maybe a few sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in. Given how consistent 40 degrees and rain has been the past five years, your gut is probably correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 From the latest AFD: Forecast soundings reveal a warm nose near 850mb and surface temperatures near or just above freezing across areas further east, including the DFW Metroplex, which would likely result in liquid rain or a period of light freezing rain prior to daybreak on Thursday. Like clockwork lol. Accumulations have been removed from the hourly too. Tired of this happening with nearly every system season after season after season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Severe weather in deep east TX and central/southern LA may be more interesting on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ending the year with 33 and raining seems most appropriate. Awful weather for a awful year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 On 12/28/2020 at 9:51 AM, DFWWeather said: The pattern so far this season is for all the models to have deep cold air and then back off as we get closer to the cold spell. I already see this trend starting to happen in all of the 6z models with this New Year's Eve event. While the track of the upper low is ideal, the source region and the depth of the cold have been questionable from the get go on this event. There is no true Arctic air involved. We will see how the models trend as we get closer. My gut feeling for DFW is that this is a cold rain with maybe a few sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in. We have a decent stratospheric warming event taking shape and 50/50 teleconnections in our favor (-AO, +PNA, -NAO) for developing Arctic cold in about 7 to 10 days. Time will tell if this can translate into some verifiable cold air. We have only hit 28°F at DFW as the coldest low and the winter is 1/3rd over. Yeah...unfortunately, there has been no cold air anywhere in the lower 48 so far this winter. As an example - for the current cold season through 12/27, Chicago (ORD) has only seen 5 days with a low temp colder than 24F. And there were only 2 (!!) such days through 12/23. That is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 38 and its raining cats and dogs here in Irving. Got a runble of thunder too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 28 minutes ago, cheese007 said: 38 and its raining cats and dogs here in Irving. Got a runble of thunder too Hearing that there is some sleet mixed in with your batch further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I’m in NW Tarrant, just rain. Though temp has dropped to 35 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just hope this doesn't end up as our last shot at winter weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Yesterday was apparently the wettest NYE on record for DFW. So that's something at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Albuquerque has been dry and cold lately. No 60 degree temperatures since November 23. May not sound like much, but it's already one of the longest periods in a La Nina without hitting 60 degrees at any point. We're at 39 through today. This week should see some highs in the mid-50s, but I doubt we'll get to close to 60. My hunch is the streak lasts until at least mid-January. The list below is only La Nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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