Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[cstrunk]

The track shifting east really eased the impacts in Longview. 35 mph gusts and only 0.40" of rain at my house. Glad I ended up with anything at all, 10 miles west of here they got zilch. 10 miles east of here they got over an inch and much more if you keep going.

[cstrunk]

Got a bit of a surprise line of storms in NE TX late Saturday night. It was falling apart by the time it made it to my house (imagine that), but I still ended up with about 0.45" rain.

A lot of rain is forecast over the next few days for much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. I'm right on the edge of it - where storms will either stay just west and north of me or will fall apart as they make it here. But several models today showed 2-3"+ for Longview so we shall see, it will be close.

[cstrunk]

I've had 7.5" of rain at my house in Longview in the last week. Insane.

0.4" from Laura last Thursday
0.45" Saturday night
0.7" Tuesday
1.5" Wednesday morning
4.5" this morning (Thursday)

[aggiegeog]

I have had over 7" and radar estimates up to 12" north of Chandler which is just to my SW. This even continues today, but I think the heavy stuff is about over with. Now on to next week's cold front and if it will be Plains (GFS) or SW (Euro) based. The Euro has us briefly cooling down next Wed before 80s return by Thu and it has a cold Panhandle and back into NM where they could get heavy snow. The GFS has snow for the Panhandle and NM Tue into Wed with the front blasting through TX on Wed. The GFS has the chilly weather sticking around into the weekend. A GFS solution would threaten record low maxes and record low mins.

[cheese007]

Lows in the mid 50s during summer in DFW. 2020 continues to be full of surprises

[DFWWeather]

2 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Lows in the mid 50s during summer in DFW. 2020 continues to be full of surprises

Lows can fall into the 50s at DFW any month during year if conditions are right. In fact, they have fallen into the 40s in June before. Technically, we are in autumn, though not by traditional calendar standards as what most people call autumn. Meteorological fall starts September 1st. In meteorology, fall temperatures are measured from September 1st through November 30th. It has been as cold as 40°F in the month of September before at DFW. What will be far more interesting is the prospects for snowfall in the Panhandle behind this front and threat of freezing temperatures. If snow does fall, it will be the earliest ever recorded in the state of Texas and by a wide margin (record held by Stratford, Texas on September 27, 1936). A snowfall this early would truly be unprecedented. Also, any freezing temps reached would be the earliest on record for the state. This cold airmass really means business. Some models are still showing lows perhaps reaching 48 to 50 at DFW. If we fall into the 40s, it would be the earliest on record. Both daily low temp and low maximum temp records are in jeopardy both Wednesday and Thursday at DFW behind this cold front. This is really like a once in 100 year cold air outbreak.

[aggiegeog]

It will be interesting to see if the upper low hangs back enough that the front haha up. If so the cool down will be marginal east of I35. 

If the upper low does hang up then the NM snow could be impressive as it will prolong the duration of snowfall and allow ground temps to cool for more accumulations to occur. Above 7500' some accumulations are likely either way, but a slower upper low will allow for up to a foot above 9000'. 

There is a good chance for the first freeze and first snow in Texas during the first half of Sept since records began.

[raindancewx]

I'm looking forward to seeing if any flakes will make it into Albuquerque. I don't expect any accumulation, it is after all going to be 95 or so on 9/7. 

I'm also very curious to see what the US national temperature anomalies look like after this plows through next week, my tentative winter analogs from August are remarkably close for September so far, but it may change dramatically this week and I'll have to see if a re-weighting is necessary.

[cheese007]

King Euro has highs in the mid to upper 80s for DFW come Wednesday. Hopefully not a preview of winter being a repeat of the last 5 ehere nearly every setup falls apart at the last second

[cstrunk]

So much for the mid-late week cool-down. 

[aggiegeog]

Looks like the northern NM peaks will see 8-16" of snow, with 3-6" at 9,000 ft and 0-2" for northern lower elevation towns. 

For areas east of I35 in TX we are clinging to hope from the NAM and CMC for the front to push at least partially into E TX. Behind the front highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 60s.

[MrFreeze6298]

A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur this
   afternoon and early evening across parts of west Texas, and from
   northeastern Oklahoma to central Illinois.

[aggiegeog]

Strong storms in the Tyler area with heavy Rain and the airport report 47 mph gust.

[raindancewx]

Red River, at 8,600 feet above sea level in Northern New Mexico has reliable snow data for 1906-2014. It's never snowed in September before 9/17 in that time frame. The forecast for six inches would be third most snow in September for the 1906-2014 period too.

[raindancewx]

Albuquerque had its second coldest September high since 1892 today, trailing only September 27, 1936 (46F). It was 47 today.

[cheese007]

56 IMBY. Cold front fame through after all!

[DFWWeather]

Record cold temp set this morning at DFW of 55°F. The old record was 56°F set in 1941. If we fail to rise to 70°F (which will be close), then I believe another record will be set.

Turns out none of the models handled this cold front well at all with the ECMWF bias of hanging back too much cold air in the west as clearly evident (though it does get props for being the only model initially to show a cut-off low forming). However, that model was way too warm. Dense cold airmasses like this rarely ever get hung up out west and then retreat north as depicted on that model (extremely rare and bizarre case if that ever happens). The NAM was the only model to get it some what right, but it was even too warm on its low temps for DFW. The earlier temp forecasts of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM last weekend of 50s here was correct before they all went way too warm.

[aggiegeog]

It is amazing how the NAM handles these so much better than anything else. The CMC sometimes gets it right but that may just be that it is cold biased overall around here. I think the best blend is use a Euro/GFS blend for upper air and once within 3 days follow the NAM for surface temps.

[raindancewx]

High was only 55 today once again. So around ~30 degrees below average for the high.

This is one of the coldest starts to September here on record, at least for highs. I think it's 6th place - 81.5F (down from 89.1F as recently as 9/8).

Based on the historical 9/11-9/30 data for 1931-2019, roughly ~40% chance of a cold month (2F below average high or colder), less than 5% chance of a hot month (2F above average high or hotter), but still most favored for +/-2F compared to average. The high tomorrow is supposed to be in the 70s, so should drag the monthly average down some more.

[MJO812]

Stay safe with Sally

[raindancewx]

This is a top five cold start to September here since 1931, through 9/13 (~43% of the month). Will be very curious to see if we can finish with a cold September. It does look warmer for the next week, but no 90s in the forecast. Any incoming smoke from the West Coast fires could also hold down temperatures during the day if it makes it out here in a thick plume.

[cheese007]

La Nina winter. Bleh

[mackerel_sky]

Enjoyed the cold wet stretch here in Iowa a few days ago! Heard it was the earliest stretch of 3 days in the 50s on record. Beating the old record by about 2 weeks, and that was from about 80years ago! I’m in Dubuque 

[cstrunk]

Didn't get much cooldown here last week. Stayed in the mid-80's for highs and was still pretty humid. The mornings did feel much better!

Been pretty dry since the early month deluge. Only 0.1" or less a few days ago. May have to start watering the lawn again. 

[cstrunk]

The last couple of days have felt great! Cooler and drier air.

Looks like we could be in line for 3-4" of rain over the next few days from TS Beta.

[raindancewx]

September looks like it will finish near average for temperatures here. One of the driest monsoons since 1931 for Albuquerque. The current October forecast on the CFS is very similar to 1964. Relatively canonical MJO phase five look for October, which makes sense as October is expected to be in phase five initially.

[raindancewx]

My 2020-21 Winter Weather Outlook:

https://www.scribd.com/document/479516526/Winter-2020-21-Outlook

[aggiegeog]

This morning was the coolest of the fall so far. Reached the mid 40s.

[cheese007]

*yawn* Wake me when severe season rolls around (I'm not naieve enough to even consider being optimistic about winter snow)

[aggiegeog]

The main excitement for this winter will be how low can we get the temps. Its a great set up for a few short lived but severe cold shots. Can we get into the single digits with sub 0 for western N TX? It will likely be dry though. Hopefully we can get a couple NW flow high ratio surprises though. Beautiful weather after today though. Maybe some showers with each front then highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s post fronts. i do like seeing the rapid succession of the fronts, if that continues into winter maybe we wont see the big warmups between fronts. This is a winter where we could see some 90s in Feb though.