cstrunk Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 Looks like the first real week of heat will be arriving in Texas next week with mid-90's in the forecast and dry conditions. We've been doing pretty well with receiving rain this spring in east Texas... but it looks like I'll have to start watering my lawn next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2020 Share Posted June 19, 2020 I was looking at the radar for a thunderstorm in Amarillo, and then I came upon something I hadn't thought about for a long time. Coming from the north, US-87/287 splits into two streets southbound, two streets northbound. It then combines into a single street that is US-87. Then US-87/I-27 goes to the south of town, but US-287 goes east, after combining with I-40 at the large interchange. US-287 then splits away from I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 63MPH gust at DFW. First notable mesoscale system in seemingly weeks for the metroplex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 I got lucky on a few days ago and picked up 0.35" at my house, enough to avoid watering. The forecast for the next week looks favorable for rain as well. We drove to Fort Worth last night as the MCS was rolling in, it blew our Toyota around pretty good on 635. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 Many areas around DFW got around 2" of rain, but some storm cells must have sat over Dallas for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 The DFW metro sure has been lucky with getting some really nice rains the last few days. Not so lucky here in Longview - yet. Chances of rain continue through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Rained today in Albuquerque. Now up to 1.07" for the month. One of the wettest June in the last 30 years, fourth I think - with a week to go yet. For the past 90 years, the wettest Junes are all 1.40" and higher. Will be interesting to see if we can get there. Chance of rain again tomorrow. My analogs had 1.30" or so for June, so pretty good really, although most was in early June, and I thought it would arrive in late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 I ended up getting 0.7" in my rain gauge yesterday evening. Just narrowly missed much heavier downpours that would have given me double the amount or more, but I'll take it! The NWS forecast seems much more optimistic than the QPF predicted by WPC over the next few days. We have 40-50% rain chances each day through Friday, and then 30% chances Saturday and Sunday. WPC's graphics show dry conditions Friday-Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:58 PM, raindancewx said: Rained today in Albuquerque. Now up to 1.07" for the month. One of the wettest June in the last 30 years, fourth I think - with a week to go yet. For the past 90 years, the wettest Junes are all 1.40" and higher. Will be interesting to see if we can get there. Chance of rain again tomorrow. My analogs had 1.30" or so for June, so pretty good really, although most was in early June, and I thought it would arrive in late June. this is a weird pattern. North of Denver is OK, Albuquerque and south is OK, in between is an absolutely cracking drought. Persistence!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 The June pattern nationally is pretty dry. Even in NM, it is really just small areas of the Rio Grande Valley that have been wet this month. The CFS has been trending much colder in July for the West though. My outlook for June had the SE/NW cold, with the NE/MW warm, other areas near average. That'll be too cold for the Plains, but decent to good elsewhere. I think I had the June high for Albuquerque at 89.4F from the pure analogs, and through yesterday it was 90.8F. So I'll be a bit too cold, but not much. Sometimes I adjust the analogs warmer for the Earth warming, but whenever I try it here, it ends up being colder. June highs are warming ~3.5F/century here, so I would have added 1.4F based on the analog years I used for 90.8F if I had done it - but even that will likely be a bit too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Doesn't look like June 2020 is going to hit 100 degrees in Albuquerque. Always good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 Continuing the trend of getting just enough rain, but missing out on much bigger amounts. I got about 0.1" Friday evening and 0.75" early this morning. About 10 miles away NWS Shreveport noted a measurement of 6.43" from just this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 Multiple severe thunderstorm warnings over the DFW area. More active afternoon than most of chasing season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Some heat records may be broken in the southern plains, Denver, Albuquerque, or Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 The local NWS actually has 104 now for July 12th. I'm skeptical that it will be that hot this late into the year. It hasn't been over 100 here in the July 7 - Sept 30 time frame since 2010. It has only happened twice since 2000, in 2003 and 2010. Hitting 100 exactly is a lot more common. But 104 would be top five for heat after week one of July. Initially, last week, it had looked like July 7 or so would see 100 degree heat, but it doesn't look like it will now. Today is certainly clear, it will be in the mid-90s. My rule for Albuquerque highs is that the temperature at noon is 10 degrees below the high. So 104 implies a 94 degree reading at Noon. I've been in Albuquerque since 2010 and I think that's only happened one day in 10 years. Today was 86 at noon, and sure enough it is 94 at 3 pm, and will probably get to 96. It's pretty hard to be 94 at Noon here, since the lows even on the hottest days, tend to drop to about 70 around 6 am. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Monday through Tuesday (mostly overnight) I finally cashed in. I measured 3.25" in my rain gauge. Pretty crazy how wet we have been over the last week or so. I'm glad I finally got a really good rain since the Texas furnace is about to start crankin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Hurricane warning for Texas! Putting a lot of moisture in the Rio Grande Valley is probably good for us to the West though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 I've been updating my sheets that compare solar tendencies to weather in Albuquerque. First look since 2015-16 data was in. - Snowfall frequency in March & April now looks like it may be significantly impacted by the sun, with two of the last four low solar years seeing snow in April in Albuquerque (way above average frequency for four years) and none of the last four Marches seeing snow (way below average frequency, especially with two El Ninos). Over the next 10 years, I think snow frequency for March & April will both become statistically significant between the high and low parts of the solar cycle here - both have p-values of around 0.05-0.10 if you do a difference in proportions test right now. - Cold winter highs in Albuquerque are still far more common with low solar activity. This held up to some extent in the last four years, with 2018-19 about 2F below the 30-year average (1991-2020), and 2019-20 about 0.5F below the 30 year average, with the winters also below (2018-19) and dead on average v. the past 100 year average highs. - Heavy snow months are much more likely in high solar winters, despite the tendency for low solar winters to be colder. The data now includes 89 years, up from 85 before, with a substantial growth in low solar years (32, +4). I waited until we had two more La Nina and two more El Ninos for the update too. Long term, the odds of very heavy precipitation in a high solar winter also seem to be nearing statistical significance relative to low solar winters. For snow, it looks like there is an extra 19 percentage point shot at getting 2", 3", 4", 5", or 6" of snow in a month with high solar activity, compared to low solar activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Radar-estimated rainfall from the hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 A couple showers last week added up to about 0.25" but yesterday I cashed in on 0.55" from a strong shower produced by the enhanced sea breeze from one of Hanna's outer bands. Another wave is headed this way this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Storms later yesterday morning ahead of a July 31 cold front (say what??) brought about 1.05" of rain in about 30 minutes. Chances of rain for the next week look pretty slim with drier air moving into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 No rain last week and nothing in the forecast for this week. The real summer has finally arrived. Highs forecast in the upper 90's. Guess it's time to break out the sprinkler! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 Obviously not a lot to talk about. It's been dry here for a couple of weeks. Some area have been lucky. SW AR had 4"-8" the other day. The MCS's that have tried to build toward my area of the I-20 corridor in East Texas have fizzled. Finally seeing 100 degree temps. Cold front on Sunday/Monday looks to bump temps back into the low 90's with only a very slight chance of rain. Needless to say I've begun watering my lawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Getting some pop up storms in DFW/east TX with a cell over Rockwall dropping decent hail. Given CAPE in the area anything that pops up might go severe quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Better get prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 On 8/21/2020 at 5:47 PM, MJO812 said: Better get prepared Someone posted an image of the Euro bringing this thing into OK as a full-on hurricane and, while intensity/track this far out is a crapshoot, it's hard to overstate how devestating that would be. Especially so if that track shifts west towards DFW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Looks like it's about to get interesting around here with Laura popping into the GoM now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Laura continues to track south of model guidance. Got a bad feeling about this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Looks like the west trend of Laura's track has halted and the trend is starting slightly nudge back east. Landfall still expected around the TX/LA border, give or take. Still have a day or a little more to some slight changes but the track seems pretty consistent. If anything I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up east of the latest NHC track, depending on the intensity tomorrow. It's a weird feeling here for me in Longview, I was excited for the prospects of some severe weather but not necessarily prepared for the center of a hurricane to pass over us. We're in a Tropical Storm Warning now, but I'll be surprised if we have much, if any sustained wind over 40 mph. In fact, the forecast from NWS Shreveport is saying 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 45 mph. That seems more like a spring day in the plains, to me. (Except 45 mph gusts here could cause a few more power issues with falling limbs and such.) Any more east shifting with the track is also going to start to reduce the predicted 2-4" of rain totals at my location too. As of now I would be very thrilled with 2", but I'm starting to think it may end up more like 1" generally. Of course it will depend on where Laura's squalls end up and where the rainfall bands set up. But being on the west side is usually not the place for a ton of rain or wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 stay safe everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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