It's Always Sunny Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Some severe potential coming together for DFW early evening tomorrow along nice surface convergence boundary. Cap appears to be in place but around 21Z models erode it. Hodos have a weak and subtle curve but may generate a couple isolated supercells. SPC has marginal out so it definitely bears some watching. Risk overall is low but certainly bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Euro has been trending toward a coherent MJO wave through the 'good' phases for interesting weather 1-2-3. In March, one is a strong wet signal (70% composite for NM shows up), and two is a strong cold signal. CPC agrees, and shows a cold wet pattern coming up mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Still don't think we've gone more than a month since October without a high over 80. At this rate summer will be absolutely brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Absolute torch today. Wx station at home is reading 90F with other wx stations around reading between 88-90F so it's legit! Should set the stage for some good thunderstorms tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Models are showing a pretty good severe/tornado threat this afternoon/evening in extreme SE New Mexico and SW Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 The new(?) NWS San Angelo radar format is...not good. Unless you live right on an interstate, it is almost impossible to find your exact location on a map. That's a pretty big safety downgrade. https://www.weather.gov/sjt/NationalRadar2 Perhaps I'm missing it, but I can't find an option to turn on a map layer with more detail, such as the topo most other NWS radars have. Just two levels of zoom, previously you could zoom into to a very detailed layer of roads and often even buildings. The new format does have less clutter for the storms, but... There's also an annoying autostart voice message on their homepage. Luckily if you click the radar link in the top row of text you can navigate to the old format radars. But a lot of non-weather geeks are going to go to that page only in a severe threat and could easily miss that. Speaking of NWS San Angelo, is the excellent former TWC met, Dr. Steve Lyons, still in charge there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 SPC thinking there could be some severe potential in the Metroplex up through OKC on Day 4. Appears to be a nighttime potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Still hasn't hit 70F officially in Albuquerque - usually this about when we hit 75F for the first time. It's been warm though, just consistently slightly above average, so no 70s yet. April is still looking like a 3.5 month lag of the prior pattern, i.e. mid-Dec to mid-Jan. You do have to shove the cold/warmth north in light of the strengthening subtropical highs. But otherwise, looks similar to me. Close to what I had in my Spring Outlook too - I'm sure the CFS will change its mind rapidly though over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Laredo got well into the triple-digits today for their high temperature today (3/26). And I believe my location (Fort Worth, TX) got to 90 yesterday, although temperatures were cooler today. What is interesting is that I am seeing what could be convection trying to go up over north-central Texas, both on satellite imagery and outside my window. I know there is a cool down coming, but it seems that summer wants to try and appear early. If heat like this tries to show up again in April (we will likely see this again by the end of May), I am wondering about the effects on the severe storm season; for Texas that would probably mean more capping and a stronger EML, but elsewhere (further north and further east) that might mean more severe storms. For instance, I know the EML is modeled to move north-east over Missouri and Illinois for their severe storm event on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 hour ago, BrandonC_TX said: Laredo got well into the triple-digits today for their high temperature today (3/26). And I believe my location (Fort Worth, TX) got to 90 yesterday, although temperatures were cooler today. What is interesting is that I am seeing what could be convection trying to go up over north-central Texas, both on satellite imagery and outside my window. I know there is a cool down coming, but it seems that summer wants to try and appear early. If heat like this tries to show up again in April (we will likely see this again by the end of May), I am wondering about the effects on the severe storm season; for Texas that would probably mean more capping and a stronger EML, but elsewhere (further north and further east) that might mean more severe storms. For instance, I know the EML is modeled to move north-east over Missouri and Illinois for their severe storm event on Saturday. Our weather station hit 92.7F which I feel is on the warm side especially with surrounding stations reporting upper 80's (maybe a couple 90F readings) but either way nice heat up yesterday (and today for that matter). There was lightning with that activity that passed to our north originating from the dry line. Don't really know what influence these early heat ups have on our storm season I mean technically it is already underway and we've had a few decent days here. I would also think any heat up or warm stretch we get would benefit our severe potential here for the reasons you mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Day 3 Slight Risk for NE TX, N LA, S AR, and W MS. Mentions after dark tornadic potential with strengthening LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Westher has been so nice yet we're gonna be stuck inside all summer. Sucks after we essentially had no fall last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 16 hours ago, cstrunk said: Day 3 Slight Risk for NE TX, N LA, S AR, and W MS. Mentions after dark tornadic potential with strengthening LLJ. SPC pulled back on western extend of slight and keeps it mainly confined to central-northern LA but looking at it closer (on 12Z NAM) not that impressed with wind fields for any sort of tornadic risk. Best kinematics occur before precipitation gets there with little instability in general appears to be more of a wind/hail risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Significant shift in the slight risk placement today. SPC seems to be expecting some hailers up in the TX/OK panhandle area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I am starting to wonder about this rainy pattern currently present across the north-central Texas region. With all this moisture in place, and with the region being within an active pattern for precipitation, sooner or later I would not be surprised to see a major severe weather event unfold (I'm not saying that will happen, though). At the moment cool temperatures are dominant, but next week looks as if conditions could get quite warm and humid, possibly setting the stage for severe weather. Additionally, late this week, SPC discussion suggests the possibility of some severe weather in TX on Friday (4/3). Longer-range models (GFS and Euro) suggest that there could be a storm system early next week, with possibly another system around the middle of next week. While less pertinent to this region, the early-week system may also get pretty strong as it moves up towards the Great Lakes at mid-week (if GFS/Euro are correct, especially GFS, and that might mean severe storms in the IA/IL region that was largely spared from having a tornado outbreak last week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Dallas becoming the new Seattle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, BrandonC_TX said: I am starting to wonder about this rainy pattern currently present across the north-central Texas region. With all this moisture in place, and with the region being within an active pattern for precipitation, sooner or later I would not be surprised to see a major severe weather event unfold (I'm not saying that will happen, though). At the moment cool temperatures are dominant, but next week looks as if conditions could get quite warm and humid, possibly setting the stage for severe weather. Additionally, late this week, SPC discussion suggests the possibility of some severe weather in TX on Friday (4/3). Longer-range models (GFS and Euro) suggest that there could be a storm system early next week, with possibly another system around the middle of next week. While less pertinent to this region, the early-week system may also get pretty strong as it moves up towards the Great Lakes at mid-week (if GFS/Euro are correct, especially GFS, and that might mean severe storms in the IA/IL region that was largely spared from having a tornado outbreak last week). April 3rd holds some stock but I agree with you long range ensembles look favorable for an uptick in southern plains severe beginning end of second week of April with PNA going negative and that ridging pattern across much of the eastern US retreating. Soil moisture will be abundant with all this rain we've been getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Turns out today will be defined by a southward-surging cold front and then chilly temperatures. Temperatures around Oklahoma City and north-northwestwards are below freezing this morning (and there is even some elevated instability above that cold layer too). Except for southern Texas, forget any potential for severe, aside from perhaps elevated hail producers in some areas of central Texas. Later on, there may possibly be some cells initiating near the Serranias del Burro of northern Mexico and then moving into southern Texas. Should be a quick chilly spell this weekend before warm and humid air begins to surge northwards on Sunday and (especially) Monday. Enjoy it if you like cold weather as this could easily be the last time we see temperatures like these until next fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Saturday was at or near record levels for cold highs, today is near record warm highs and northern Texas could see snow next week. March was boring but man April is not just hope no severe weather in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 The European has been showing a pretty big snow storm for mid-April for New Mexico. It does coincide pretty well with the huge SOI crash 4/1 to 4/3 - big storms over the SW tend to follow big crashes. The crash was +5 to -16 in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 That storm will bring cold with moisture wish it was a month or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Snowing here. Never good for the Plains for tornado activity if it snows in Albuquerque in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 That storm last night was intense. Took down some big trees and either snapped or knocked over tons of trees at my Dads nursery. Sipapu got around 8" of fresh snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 19 hours ago, aggiegeog said: That storm last night was intense. Took down some big trees and either snapped or knocked over tons of trees at my Dads nursery. Sipapu got around 8" of fresh snow. Yeah it was. A good 20+ minutes of 50-60 mph gusts here. Knocked over the next door neighbor's fence. Also heard a tree fall a block north and partially land on a house, luckily it wasn't directly on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Had a couple pieces of graupel fall from the sky in Longview this morning. Air temp is 46F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 4 hours ago, cstrunk said: Yeah it was. A good 20+ minutes of 50-60 mph gusts here. Knocked over the next door neighbor's fence. Also heard a tree fall a block north and partially land on a house, luckily it wasn't directly on it. Spent the morning cleaning up the Bradford Pears in my grandparent's yard. Took out a few big 30ft ones. Man I hate those trees haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 It made it down to 37 here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 There is a pretty strong cyclical nature to date of final measurable snowfall here. The repeatable part of the curve seems to be 60-years, so we're around 1960? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 10, 2020 Author Share Posted May 10, 2020 A couple of days ago a tornado hit the NE part of the metro area. It was a confirmed EF-2 twister. 3 people died, and there was significant damage. The affected area is more of an industrial zone. It was the first record of a direct hit of a tornado in Monterrey. There have been close calls before, but no direct hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 The first part of both videos reminded me of the Wichita Andover storm as it was over McConnell AFB. The debris being thrown just beyond the parking lot. All it needed was a barracks building to the right of the screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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