cheese007 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: Yes, but all of the GFS ensemble members output snow/ice for the area and over 50% of the both the 0z and 6z ensemble ECMWF members also produce significant accumulations of snow/ice for the area as well as a majority of Canadian ensemble members. Someone in the other thread mentioned a NW shift with the GFS. Seems to be a trend with the increased cold/moisture. Wouldn't get hopes up quite yet (though will agree this is the most interesting setup in years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Someone in the other thread mentioned a NW shift with the GFS. Seems to be a trend with the increased cold/moisture. Wouldn't get hopes up quite yet (though will agree this is the most interesting setup in years) 12z GFS is even more bullish with 7.0 inches at DFW Airport to over a foot of snow in southwest Tarrant to hardly any in southeast Dallas County with over a quarter of an inch of sleet/ice for the entire Metroplex. Low temperature of 23°F at DFW Airport during the coldest part of the event. I don't see that trend, if anything a southeastward shift of heaviest precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 It's maps like this that make me think whoever controls the weather is messing with DFW specifically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Starting to look like a DFW bullseye with heavy sleet and snow on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Starting to look like a DFW bullseye with heavy sleet and snow on Wed. God I hope you're right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 That front is barrelling south right now. Key right now is if it slows as the globals indicate, if not then game on. Arctic air doesn't like to slow down but the mid level cold could we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Starting to look like a DFW bullseye with heavy sleet and snow on Wed. I’m in Celina. Hoping for a massive ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Also for those in Central and East Texas watch trends for Wednesday night. I could see some 3"+snow totals from the northern Hill Country into East Texas with a general 1/2-2" over a wide area. this is under the base of the trough as it kicks east out of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Lots of varying solutions with NAM being the coldest thus far. It's still too early to tell if Dallas will be a wintry mix or cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Lots of varying solutions with NAM being the coldest thus far. It's still too early to tell if Dallas will be a wintry mix or cold rain. Surely this time it won't be warmer than predicted. Like for once it has to be accurate or maybe colder right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The cold air will obviously be there at the surface but I'm more focused on the temperatures aloft which will be the determining factor. GFS nukes lower levels (resulting in cold rain/freezing rain) while NAM and Euro run colder (likely sleet/snow/patchy freezing rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: The cold air will obviously be there at the surface but I'm more focused on the temperatures aloft which will be the determining factor. GFS nukes lower levels (resulting in cold rain/freezing rain) while NAM and Euro run colder (likely sleet/snow/patchy freezing rain). Oh warm air aloft is part of what I was referencing. Have had so, so many setups get killed by it these past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Oh warm air aloft is part of what I was referencing. Have had so, so many setups get killed by it these past few years I agree. These fronts are always so shallow which keeps me leery of the entire column cooling enough to produce wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I agree. These fronts are always so shallow which keeps me leery of the entire column cooling enough to produce wintry precip. NWS hourly for my area seems bullish with a significant chance of accumulating snow and sleet. Hard not to get my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This storm is the first in a long time that is associated with a very deep trough so I am not so concerned with warmth aloft though E of I35 mixing will be an issue but I do not think it will be all rain until you get east of DFW. Sleet could push all the way into E TX Wed. Thursday will feature incredibly cold temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Models don't seem to keen on anything making it into the metroplex EDIT: Winter storm watch expanded westward, includes Tarrant and Denton counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 hours ago, cheese007 said: Models don't seem to keen on anything making it into the metroplex EDIT: Winter storm watch expanded westward, includes Tarrant and Denton counties I expect all of DFW will end up with a warning by tomorrow morning. An inch of sleet will cause huge travel issues. DFW looks top miss out on most of the snow with the majority falling between Childress and Wichita Falls and a secondary band tomorrow night from the Austin area through Deep E TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Latest AFD mentions that the Tarrant/Denton county lines will likely be the dividing one between wintry precip and cold rain. Local forecast has had temps shited up 4-5 degrees. Can't catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 hours ago, aggiegeog said: I expect all of DFW will end up with a warning by tomorrow morning. An inch of sleet will cause huge travel issues. DFW looks top miss out on most of the snow with the majority falling between Childress and Wichita Falls and a secondary band tomorrow night from the Austin area through Deep E TX. After reviewing incoming 12z data, I'm not so sure. I think if anything Tarrant County will be downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory or removed from the Winter Watch/Warning altogether. There is no supporting evidence on the models to have added Tarrant to the watch in the first place (and I am still perplexed on the reasoning on that), and certainly not Dallas County. This is primarily going to stay north and west of the Metroplex. Interesting to note on the the latest NAM 2m Temps of below zero over the deep snow pack just northwest of Wichita Falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Can't believe a DFW winter event fell apart within 24 hours of when it was supoosed to occur and we'll be left with 33 degree cold rain. Who could have seen that coming? Just bring on spring already and put this winter out of its misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, DFWWeather said: After reviewing incoming 12z data, I'm not so sure. I think if anything Tarrant County will be downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory or removed from the Winter Watch/Warning altogether. There is no supporting evidence on the models to have added Tarrant to the watch in the first place (and I am still perplexed on the reasoning on that), and certainly not Dallas County. This is primarily going to stay north and west of the Metroplex. Interesting to note on the the latest NAM 2m Temps of below zero over the deep snow pack just northwest of Wichita Falls. Agreed model support waned overnight. It is still incredibly close call especially west of I-35. A slight cool down would change things drastically for Fort Worth even as it they will likely see a fair amount of sleet. For Dallas even if surface temps end up near freezing the warm nose is pretty stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Basically along and behind the 700mb front is where the heavy snow will be. Between the 700 and 850mb front is going to be mainly sleet. East of the 850mb front will be rain or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Latest thinking from FWD. Further dialed back precip amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Blizzard warning for mountains of West Texas where they could see a foot of snow with wind chills below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 NWS moved things a smidge SE. Not enough to matter for Dallas but it's something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Albuquerque finally had a "high ratio" snow event today - airport reported 0.05" liquid equivalent as 1.3 inches of snow. So 6.6 inches for Oct 1-Feb 4 at the official site. At my place, only 0.7 inches today, but up to 10.3 inches for the season. Roughly 40% of precipitation to fall in Dec-Feb so far has been snow for Albuquerque, and then another ~22% of the precipitation in November, the wettest November in 100+ years was also snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Looking like even more of a bust than expected here in south Ft. Worth. Not a lick of cold rain, much less sleet/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 It still looks good for light snow tonight from Central TX through East TX. Moisture is shallow but it is there along with an impulse to wring the moisture out. I expect a dusting to an isolated inch for most as temps will be mostly in the 33-35 range and precip rates will be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Oh my God it's sleeting in far north dallas! At a decent clip too! EDIT: Well that was a fun 30 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 On the final update, only 0.8" snow yesterday in Albuquerque. Today's high of 32F with a low of 12F in Albuquerque is the 39th coldest day in February in the last 100 years. Close to the 99th Percentile for cold in that period. I think we may make a run for 5-10F in the morning, which is pretty impressive here for February. I think the all time record low is about -7 for February, matched in 2011. Dew point is "only" -5, so we won't break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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