It's Always Sunny Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Models trended slightly east overnight which doesn't surprise me. DFW was on the western fringe to begin with but still plenty of time for models to change: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Coldest highs for DFW in most 10 day forecasts are in the upper 50s at the coldest. Might hit the 70s later this week. Makes me dread the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: Coldest highs for DFW in most 10 day forecasts are in the upper 50s at the coldest. Might hit the 70s later this week. Makes me dread the summer Maybe an early start to the spring severe season is in order? Not going to comment on summer at this time. GFS gives some threat across the SPC-delineated regions for Friday and Saturday though the Euro runs look more amped (bringing a fairly-humid warm sector as far north as the Ohio Valley next weekend); if those Euro runs verify then a stronger storm system would track from central Texas to the Midwest-Great Lakes region. EDIT: The only cold I see for DFW is way out in GFS fantasy land. I guess we know how that tends to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 GFS has backed off, but the Euro has accumulating snow for Albuquerque and much of New Mexico starting within five days now. Start time would be Thursday evening. Albuquerque had 0.3" precipitation for all of December, so that'd actually be the biggest storm in a while for us, if it verified exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Analogs suggest a lower MS Valley outbreak as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 If the upper low on Sat can just track further south we could see some snow in N TX. For right now it looks like a big OK/AR snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: If the upper low on Sat can just track further south we could see some snow in N TX. For right now it looks like a big OK/AR snow event. Tornadoes followed by a snowstorm would be peak Texas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Bit of a west tick puts Dallas in the 15% risk now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Wouldn't be much further west to put Dallas in the 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The GFS has been advertising some kind of ice/sleet/snow event for western/central/northeast TX in the January 15-17th range mid-late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 41 minutes ago, cstrunk said: The GFS has been advertising some kind of ice/sleet/snow event for western/central/northeast TX in the January 15-17th range mid-late next week. Given the past 5 years, I'll believe it when I see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 hours ago, cstrunk said: The GFS has been advertising some kind of ice/sleet/snow event for western/central/northeast TX in the January 15-17th range mid-late next week. The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize. Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA. March 4th-5th of that year was the last one. Funnily enough it was the 4th largest 24 hour snowfall in March at DFW on record. Not the kind of thing that you would expect to kick off a record snow drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, cheese007 said: March 4th-5th of that year was the last one. Funnily enough it was the 4th largest 24 hour snowfall at DFW on record That was just before I moved here I knew it was sometime around then, and it was snow/sleet, not freezing rain. Those two pictures in that link are hilarious. Typical TX weather lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm starting to see some hints of big storms coming into the Southwest after the 15th - we'll see how that goes. Local records have a strong signal for a wet January after a wet November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Looks like we're in for another cold rain event late next week for DFW per the AFD. Can hardly wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 So much junk... moderate risk what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Looks like the heaviest snows tomorrow may end up in DFW vs OK. HRRR shows over 3" in spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Gonna be in the 80s next week in parts of North Texas per FWD. No wintry weather for the forseeable future unless we get a miracle this morning. Didn't know it was possible for a winter to be worse than the last 4 but here we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Could see some thundersnow in DFW this morning especially the NW half. I expect some 1-2"/hour rates maybe bursts even heavier for FW and Denton. Then wait a week and better chances for widespread snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Tiny sleet pellets in far north Dallas EDIT: Reports of thundersnow up in Frisco. Of course I have a work thing until noon so no opportunity to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Denton is coated in snow. Every paved surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Snow coming down at a decent clip in Famer's Branch near 635 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Officially recorded 0.2 inches of snow at DFW. Beat last January's 0.1 inches and is the most snow since March of 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 GFS/Euro are starting to show some decent rain/snow for New Mexico on Thursday-Friday, with some help from the sub tropical jet stream. Up to 4.6 inches of snow at the airport officially. I still like January as a big precipitation month for Albuquerque - we'll see how that goes. Elephant Butte Reservoir is 28.8% full right now. After all the snow melted last July, it peaked at 29.2% full. Should easily beat that - maybe with the next big precipitation event this winter. Elephant Butte likely will be the most full it has been since 2002 by Spring or Summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out. Maybe we'll get lucky but it sounds like we'll just get lots of cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Starting to look like a good precipitation event for New Mexico on Thursday. Lots of mountain snow. Might get some snow in the valleys too if the 12-km NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks like the STJ will really get cranking over the next couple weeks. NM and TX will likely see multiple snow events. This is Feb 2015 esque with a train of storms over an extended time period and not a Feb 2010 style big single event. In 2015 I had snow on the ground for two weeks straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The GFS mid week next week is showing a strong Plains high moving south out of Canada with moist STJ slamming into it over Texas. The STJ dries out as it moves across the state and with no resulting surface low to pull in new moisture from the Gulf. For areas W of -35 and N of I-10 this set up is great and many could see a multi inch snow event. For areas E of I-35 the key will be to get a stronger upper air shortwave that translates into a surface low to pull in Gulf moisture. The GFS and its ensembles hint at a couple more storms after next weeks all with potential for winter precip. Love this time of year when cold has had time to build in over the continent and the STJ starts cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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