Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[cheese007]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My analogs had Dallas slightly above average for snow I believe. Something like +10% or +20% if I'm remembering right. 

Hoping you're right 

[cstrunk]

The forecast high for Monday is 73. After a mid-week warmup, next Friday and Saturday will only reach the upper 60's. Fall is here (finally)!

[aggiegeog]

Could we see some frost this weekend? 

[cstrunk]

Cold front is on its way through... thought all of the precipitation would miss me but we're getting a tail-end storm finally. It won't be a lot but it's something at least!

[cheese007]

SPC put out a 15% contour for D4 stretching from Kansas into the DFW metro

[cstrunk]

I ended up with 0.6" rain at my house, more than I thought!

[aggiegeog]

My weather station gave out a couple weeks ago so no measurements from my house. I need to get one ordered so I have it for the next front. Still in the upper 60s around Tyler.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like Friday will hold in the 40s for many with maybe some sleet if there is enough post frontal moisture. Frost is possible north of I-20 Saturday with a freeze possible along the Red River and in NW Texas.

[Jestocost]

Despite being in the UHI in N DFW this is my feeling as well.

That system up in the far NW is intense, but also very big.

I think Friday temps get adjusted down tomorrow (Thursday) and I'm not convinced we're going to see a return - even for 24 or 36 hours - to warmer temps Monday-ish before the big followup dumps into the area Tuesday.

 

 

[aggiegeog]

Cold spots could drop into the 20s Sat morning in the cold spots along I-20 if the wind goes calm and skies clear.

[raindancewx]

Nice and dry + cold = very cold lows for the rural areas of the high terrain in New Mexico.

[aggiegeog]

Angel FIre, NM had a high of 51 on Friday then a low of 6 Saturday and back up to 57 then down to 13 this morning with a high of 62 this afternoon.

[cheese007]

NOAA winter forecast is out. If you're a NTX sniow fsn have I got somr bad news for you: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/noaas-2019-20-winter-outlook-temperature-precipitation-and-drought

[raindancewx]

Good start after a quiet October in New Mexico outside of one major rain event in SE NM very early in the month.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like the NE quarter of NM and the TX Panhandle are in for their first significant snow tomorrow into Friday.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like my family's place in southern Taos County, NM got a few inches of snow so far.

[raindancewx]

Snow in Santa Fe...low 50s in Albuquerque today. Amazing how sharp the cut offs can be in Fall and Spring systems that don't quite dive far enough south.

[raindancewx]

From the NWS ABQ Office: 
...RECORD COLD THIS WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTING MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

Unseasonable to record breaking cold temperatures will dominate
northern and central New Mexico this week, as northerly upper
winds reinforce a modified Arctic airmass in place over the
region.

Much of the northeast third of the state will see near record to
record low temperatures tonight, including Santa Fe, Las Vegas,
Raton, Clayton and Tucumcari. Other locales will see overnight low
temperatures 5-15 degrees colder than normal for late October.

Highs Tuesday will warm over today`s readings but it will get
even colder Tuesday night and Wednesday as another modified
Arctic blast surges into New Mexico on gusty north winds.
Wednesday`s highs will be 25-40 degrees colder than normal,
with highs ranging from the 20s and 30s east and north to mostly
40s southwest.

In addition to the cold, freezing drizzle, freezing fog
and light snow will develop over the east Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This includes the Interstate 40 corridor from Clines
Corners to the Texas border, Interstate 25 from Glorieta Pass to
Raton Pass, and U.S. 64 from Raton to Capulin. While ice and snow
accumulations are expected to be minimal, the travel impacts will
be hazardous.

Wednesday night will feature mid winter like temperatures, with
near record to record lows ranging from around 20 degrees below
zero to the single digits above zero across most of the north
with teens south. Wind chill readings across north central and
northeast New Mexico will vary from near zero to about 30 degrees
below zero.

[aggiegeog]

This front will bring well below 0 temps to Angel Fire, NM, teens to the Panhandle and a freeze to most north of I20. Halloween morning wind chills around here could be in the teens with afternoon temps in the 40s only. If only the associated low could track further south so we could get wrap around flurries but it looks like the low will be well to our north keeping us cold and dry.

[raindancewx]

[raindancewx]

Cold mornings have arrived in greater frequency than my analogs depicted. Blending year with coldest October low is pretty predictive for number of lows <=32F here for the total of <=32F nights: I get 109, +/-24 using the last 30-years for the confidence interval, and 109, +/-27 using the last 90-years. Either way, anything above 118 would be most in lifetime. We finished with 97 last year, but only through 11/15. Looks like like we'll be at seven through 11/1.

[aggiegeog]

33 yesterday morning and 25 this morning at my house in Hideaway.

[raindancewx]

Probably (Definitely?) won't get a 968 mb low out of it this time, but October was wetter than September again in Albuquerque. That has always preceded measurable precipitation in October back to 1931 (37/37 cases), including last year. Odds are always much better for a big wet March when October is wetter than September.

[aggiegeog]

Early next week is starting to look interesting. It is certain that it will rain and be cold. Question is if there is enough energy coming out of Mexico behind the front to generate wintery precip.

[aggiegeog]

The early week winter storm idea is gaining more model support with the GFS showing a ice storm Monday night. The recurving typhoon will likely bring the coldest air yet around the 18th. This November will likely go down as one of the coldest ever in Texas and Nationwide. 

[vwgrrc]

Looks like it will be close. Precipitation ends around dusk right before the temp drop to freezing, of course 

[cheese007]

13 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

Looks like it will be close. Precipitation ends around dusk right before the temp drop to freezing, of course 

Feels like that has happened a lot the past 5 years

[raindancewx]

I don't "expect" my winter analogs to work in the neighboring seasons, but I do like to see relatively close matches to make sure I am on the right track. I had the cold West idea for October in the winter analogs (the blend is from 10/1, although I didn't release it until 10/10), with the cold shifting East for November. Not bad. The pattern was more amplified than my analogs, probably in part because the PDO went more negative than I had it. I'll never understand why New Mexico never shows up cold on these maps. Albuquerque was 2.7F below the 1951-2010 average high in October 2019 (68.3F v. 71.0F).

[aggiegeog]

Surprisingly NWS has inserted a changeover to snow showers for much of the state Monday night. I would have likely held off since it is a borderline event with no impacts expected either way that is still 4 days out.

[raindancewx]

In Albuquerque, Nino 3.4 temps / solar conditions / Nino 3.4 temps in the prior winter are pretty predictive for highs in Oct-May. Once October is in you, you can anchor the data to what was observed then too. Last year it was a strong match in all non-March months. This year, I have a decent match for the sun, and ONI (ONI will probably be around 27.1C) and a good match for October. But I don't have a good way of getting ONIp and the sun to work together. But so far, the blend is holding in November. Will be curious to see how it goes.