yoda Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Topeka KS 137 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Anderson County in east central Kansas... Southwestern Osage County in east central Kansas... Coffey County in east central Kansas... Southeastern Lyon County in east central Kansas... * Until 215 AM CDT. * At 136 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 4 miles southeast of Reading to 7 miles west of Madison, moving southeast at 50 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Official observation station at the Emporia Airport. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... Burlington, Lebo, Olpe, New Strawn, Hartford, Gridley, Neosho Rapids, Westphalia, Beto Junction, John Redmond Reservoir, Melvern Lake and Le Roy. This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 138 and 156. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9634 3858 9585 3804 9536 3804 9596 TIME...MOT...LOC 0636Z 329DEG 42KT 3849 9589 3817 9627 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...90MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 154 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 KSC031-111-139-300715- /O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0298.000000T0000Z-190830T0715Z/ Osage-Coffey-Lyon- 154 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...WESTERN COFFEY AND LYON COUNTIES... At 154 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 4 miles north of New Strawn to near Hamilton, moving southeast at 50 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 153 AM CDT...trained spotters estimated 70 mph wind gusts in Hartford. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Emporia, Burlington, Lebo, Americus, Olpe, New Strawn, Hartford, Gridley, Neosho Rapids, Reading and John Redmond Reservoir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Good morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 Nasty looking line of storms on its way past the Red River. Will be interesting to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Cashed in on the recent mini-drought in my backyard big-time today. Some of the hardest rain I've seen all season, combined with a bit of small hail and 20+ minute barrage of crazy close-range CG lightning. I ended up with 2.6" of rain in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 Around 14+ hours non stop rain around MBY today. I estimate around 6-7" have fell, and it's raining cats and dogs out there attm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 It's hot and dry... this week doesn't look much different, although temperatures should be in the mid-90's compared to the 100's over the last few days. Very small chances for rain Mon-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Want to see how September finishes up here, but I'm looking real hard at 1953-54, 1983-84, 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-2010, 2018-19 as the winter blend. Extra weight on 2009 and 1995 in all likelihood. Snow would be pretty prolific for the interior South, NE, Ohio Valley and maybe the east slopes of the Rockies. Below average north and west of NM/CO generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Looks like the I-45 corridor is in for some flooding this week as TS Imelda slowly moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 4 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Looks like the I-45 corridor is in for some flooding this week as TS Imelda slowly moves north. Hopefully the flooding isn't too bad, but many areas could surely use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 13 hours ago, cstrunk said: Hopefully the flooding isn't too bad, but many areas could surely use the rain. I am hoping for a good 2-3" up here along I-20 in E TX, but the Euro runs showing 20+" have me concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 September Climate Statistics for DFW: We are approaching the autumnal equinox and DFW Airport has failed to record one single low temperature below 70°F. Looking at the models to the end of the month, it doesn't appear that we will get to 70°F or below anytime soon. Out of 121 years of records, that has NEVER happened. Only 15 years of the 121 year record period have we seen Septembers where the low failed to fall below 60°F which is kinda of a benchmark for a warm September. Roughly 60% of the time, DFW has fallen below 60°F at least once during the month of September. Roughly 30 of the 121 years of records, the temp has fallen to 50°F or below at least one time in September. This September is on track to the be hottest September on record for DFW, and while daytime temps have been hot and slightly above normal, there have not been any daily record highs tied or broken. It is all because of the low temperatures. Normal lows this time of year should be in the 65°F to 67°F range falling to 62°F by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 24-hr precip may have been as much as 9-16" near and southwest of Galveston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 So far, Galveston has received 5.96" rain today. That easily surpasses the daily record of 2.47", which was set in 1979. It is also Galveston's biggest one-day rainfall total since August 29, 2017 when 8.64" rain associated with Hurricane Harvey fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Some spots have seen 35" or rain over the last 24 hours near Beaumont. The main band is sagging towards Houston proper now. All of this should begin to shift north and west later today. East Texas should go downhill rapidly tonight with lots of flash flooding there tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: Some spots have seen 35" or rain over the last 24 hours near Beaumont. The main band is sagging towards Houston proper now. All of this should begin to shift north and west later today. East Texas should go downhill rapidly tonight with lots of flash flooding there tomorrow. Sister lives on a lake outside Longview - hopefully they don't have any issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, canderson said: Sister lives on a lake outside Longview - hopefully they don't have any issues. Hope not. Most models show a few inches which we can easily handle but Euro keeps insisting on >20" locally around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: Hope not. Most models show a few inches which we can easily handle but Euro keeps insisting on >20" locally around here. I'm curious, where do you go to view the Euro model? I use COD weather but it doesn't have that model. Everything on there looks like 0.5"-1" for at least the Longview area now, instead of 2-4" from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Just now, cstrunk said: I'm curious, where do you go to view the Euro model? I use COD weather but it doesn't have that model. Everything on there looks like 0.5"-1" for at least the Longview area now, instead of 2-4" from yesterday. weather.us Recent runs of the Euro show 6-15" for the Longview/Kilgore area. The western gradient is pretty sharp so if you are west of where the main band sets up you will not see a whole lot. Really hard to pinpoint this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 2 hours ago, aggiegeog said: weather.us Recent runs of the Euro show 6-15" for the Longview/Kilgore area. The western gradient is pretty sharp so if you are west of where the main band sets up you will not see a whole lot. Really hard to pinpoint this far out. Oh wow, that's nuts. Is that the only model that picks up on this that you've seen? Hopefully that's an outlier and can be disregarded, but it would be nice if we ended up with more than an inch. Just not 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 12 hours ago, cstrunk said: Oh wow, that's nuts. Is that the only model that picks up on this that you've seen? Hopefully that's an outlier and can be disregarded, but it would be nice if we ended up with more than an inch. Just not 12". Yes. Euro is the only one I saw that had the crazy totals along I20. Looks like the hi res models from yesterday are verifying with most rain to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 I ended up getting 1.6" from yesterday around noon until this morning at 7:30 AM. The radar estimate seems way off, as it shows that I should have only had about 0.3". I guess the small droplet size had something to do with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I got very little rain at my house last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Angel Fire, NM fell to 16 this morning. Reports from the area around my family's place near Sipapu have had freezing temps the past 3 mornings with 24 this morning. I wonder if snow can dust down to base level tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 I was actually looking at snow for the upcoming cold season in New Mexico, and the higher elevation areas come out pretty well, the signal goes from below average snow at valley level to above average at the mountain tops. Highest terrain may be up to 20% above average. The signal I get for Albuquerque is for a lot of cold nights despite somewhat warmer than average highs. Last year, the NW 1/3 and Gila (SW NM by AZ) did well, generally normal to +80%, with the southern valleys and SE part of the state well below average. This is probably what I'll use for winter forecast, pending any last minute surprises in September (say, 2.4 inches of rain from now to 9/30 in Albuquerque). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 I cannot wait for next week's front. Highs in the 70s with lows maybe touching the upper 40s here in NE TX Wed morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 4 hours ago, aggiegeog said: I cannot wait for next week's front. Highs in the 70s with lows maybe touching the upper 40s here in NE TX Wed morning. I can't either! The ECMWF and the GFS though don't seem to agree on the degree of cold. GFS is warmer and following MJO in phase 1 and 8. Whereas the ECMWF is following the recurving typhoon. Which is correct? Enjoy the relief while it lasts as it looks like we will be back above normal for much of the remainder of October, unfortunately. DFW just had its hottest September on record out of 121 years of weather records. 86°F was the average temp (normal Sept average is 78°F). Though ironically we did not set any high temperature records. We never fell below 70°F which was first for the month and we had the most 90+ degree days of any prior September. It was also the only September on record with no measurable rainfall. Far cry from last year when we recorded 12.96 inches of rain which was the wettest September on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starsfan69 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 5 hours ago, DFWWeather said: I can't either! The ECMWF and the GFS though don't seem to agree on the degree of cold. GFS is warmer and following MJO in phase 1 and 8. Whereas the ECMWF is following the recurving typhoon. Which is correct? Enjoy the relief while it lasts as it looks like we will be back above normal for much of the remainder of October, unfortunately. DFW just had its hottest September on record out of 121 years of weather records. 86°F was the average temp (normal Sept average is 78°F). Though ironically we did not set any high temperature records. We never fell below 70°F which was first for the month and we had the most 90+ degree days of any prior September. It was also the only September on record with no measurable rainfall. Far cry from last year when we recorded 12.96 inches of rain which was the wettest September on record. How long this cool air will last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Does anyone have any thoughts on winter for NTX? Hoping DFW can break its record snowless streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 My analogs had Dallas slightly above average for snow I believe. Something like +10% or +20% if I'm remembering right. I'll put out my winter forecast here in a week. It's basically done, just want to see a couple more things. The MJO is moving erratically - I want to see if that actually persists or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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