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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


wxmx
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 7/1/2019 at 7:11 PM, raindancewx said:

Those images of Guadalajara are pretty impressive. That's one way to cool the ground for sure.

Albuquerque just had its coldest January-June average temperature since 1998 - running nearly four degrees colder than last year so far.

Oklahoma City had its coldest January-June average temperature since 1993, and its fifth wettest such period on record.

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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a Cat 1 into  the border of LA and TX at 144 hours

Quite a westward shift. Obviously still a long ways out, but at least it's something interesting to follow. Flooding will likely be the biggest threat (barring major intensification), but fortunately east Texas and LA haven't received as much rain recently as they did in spring, for the most part.

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On 7/8/2019 at 2:34 PM, cstrunk said:

Quite a westward shift. Obviously still a long ways out, but at least it's something interesting to follow. Flooding will likely be the biggest threat (barring major intensification), but fortunately east Texas and LA haven't received as much rain recently as they did in spring, for the most part.

Every model has a Cat 1 into LA.

Hopefully it fizzles out in the upcoming days.

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42 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

It packed a punch wind wise. Still dealing with issues from it at the office in downtown Tyler.

We had about 45 mph gusts, but only received a few sprinkles IMBY. Disappointing combined with the forecasted track of Barry shifting farther east. We probably won't end up with much from that either. 

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1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

We had about 45 mph gusts, but only received a few sprinkles IMBY. Disappointing combined with the forecasted track of Barry shifting farther east. We probably won't end up with much from that either. 

I got over a half inch in Hideaway. Yea, not looking like much rain from Barry in Tyler/Longview area, but maybe some heavy showers for far E TX.

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Streak of colder year/year highs looks like it may end this July. May continue - will be close. From Oct 2018 to June 2019, each month was colder than Oct 2017 to June 2018. July 2018 had a high of 92F. We're below that now, but a fair number of mid-90s look likely for the next week to ten days. 

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I've been attempting to refine my methods for predicting high temperatures anomalies in the SW in La Ninas. It looks like the ACE Index in the Atlantic is a pretty strong indicator. Historically severe Atlantic hurricane seasons, in La Ninas, tend to be very hot, dry winters in Albuquerque. I'm not even convinced this will be a La Nina, but just for reference, I thought this was interesting - the three hottest La Ninas were all absolutely terrible, life destroying hurricane seasons - 1933, 2005, 2017. The two La Ninas over 250 on the Ace Index are 2005-06 and 1933-34 - essentially low-solar, Dust Bowl BS patterns in each case.

D_kHoh-U4AAIbNE.png

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Cashed in on 0.50" of rain yesterday afternoon, and 1.85" early this morning in a storm that woke me up. Great timing as I could tell my grass was beginning to fade a bit from it's lush green nature I have enjoyed all spring/summer so far. I've only watered one time all year.

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It's been dry IMBY since the bonus rain last week. It finally feels like mid-late summer here, with temperatures in the upper 90's today and through the extended forecast, and no rain expected. 

I'll have to water my lawn this weekend for only the 2nd time all year!

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On 8/7/2019 at 2:10 PM, cstrunk said:

It's been dry IMBY since the bonus rain last week. It finally feels like mid-late summer here, with temperatures in the upper 90's today and through the extended forecast, and no rain expected. 

I'll have to water my lawn this weekend for only the 2nd time all year!

I’m in town next week, Tuesday through Sunday. 

I hope I can eat my Shivers quickly so it doesn’t immediately melt. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Been a long-time here since the trend in anomalies in Summer highs has gone cold, warmer, warmest for June, July, August. June was -2.1, July +1.5, and August should be around +3.0 in terms of highs against the respective long-term averages.

2000 and 2009 both had cold Junes that gradually gave way to a lot of warmth.

The monsoon is fairly likely to finish below average here now too - about a 72% chance that the rains in the remainder of Aug/Sept will not be enough for the city to reach 4.31 inches of rain from 6/15-9/30.

Leaning toward a very wet, slightly warm winter for now. Something like 2016, 2018, 2009, 2007, 2004, 2013 as a blend? Will have a better idea by mid-September.

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1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

Yesterday the rain was to my north and today to the south, ugh.

Same here. It does look like the outflow from this morning convection to the south has stalled near or just north of Longview, and there is an area of agitated cumulus that may turn into a few storms/showers with continued strong insolation along the boundary.

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