canderson Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 1 hour ago, David Reimer said: The high risk 'bust' of 2017 is flashing in my mind in regards to Saturday. Conditions certainly do set up to support a significant severe weather event, but I'm not sure which mode will be dominant. A QLCS would result in plenty of damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes while a semi-discrete supercellular mode would probably have a substantial tornado threat. Lousiana is pretty much doomed at this point since timing is set up to support both modes out that way. I'm just not sure we'll get it done in East Texas before we veer or have VBV issues. Hopefully, we get more answers than questions with the 0Z model suite. We'll also have to see how far west the threat sets up on Saturday considering the slowing trend in data over the last day. I’m totally on mobile and shitty East Texas internet speeds but are the storms still going to come through Saturday morning? I think those end up playing a role in how quick the energy can kick out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: I’m totally on mobile and shitty East Texas internet speeds but are the storms still going to come through Saturday morning? I think those end up playing a role in how quick the energy can kick out. Late morning into the mid-afternoon hours. After 4 PM the LLJ should be veering in East Texas with the tornado threat lowering. Lousiana is all sorts of screwed at this point. Tonight's NAM would suggest a fairly potent tornado threat with storms from the late morning through mid-afternoon in East Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 15 hours ago, canderson said: I’m back home in Longview this weekend. Saturday afternoon looks to be rocking around here. Sure does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 15, 2019 Share Posted April 15, 2019 Ruidoso, Santa Fe and most high elevation zones have had good snows in the past week. Here is Ruidoso. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 The mountains have been very warm lately except for a couple cold snow days. At 9K feet they have had highs in the 60s and even around 70 some days. Our place on Highway 518 has dropped from 50 this morning to snow now. Last Saturday was wild going from bare ground to snow covered back to bare ground multiple times in 12 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 The flow on the Rio Grande River is currently around 10x higher than last April in parts of New Mexico. This time last year, the riverbed of the Rio Grande south of Socorro was sandy, the edges of its channel strewn with desiccated fish. Even through Albuquerque, the state’s largest river was flowing at just about 400 cubic feet per second, exposing long sandbars and running just inches deep. This year, the Middle Rio Grande is booming, nearly ten times higher than it was last April—and it’s still rising. Running bank-to-bank, the river’s waters are lapping up over low spots along the bank, nourishing trees and grasses, replenishing groundwater and creating much-needed habitat for young fish and other creatures. Combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo is about 324,000 acre feet as of Thursday, or roughly 14 percent capacity. Last fall, storage in the two reservoirs dropped below three percent. Levels in those two reservoirs matter not only to downstream water users, but also those upstream along the Rio Grande. Since last May, New Mexico has had to abide by Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact of 1938. When combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs drops below 400,000 acre feet, Colorado and New Mexico can’t store water in any of the upstream reservoirs built after 1929. This includes Heron, El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs in New Mexico. Now, water managers expect that New Mexico will be out of Article VII restrictions in mid-May. Once that happens, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which supplies water to irrigators in the Albuquerque area, can start holding water in upstream reservoirs. They’re expecting to store about 40,000 acre-feet of water before water levels drop again later this year. http://nmpoliticalreport.com/2019/04/26/rio-grande-roars-to-life-with-runoff/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 Models all indicate a very wet first half of May. The -EPO/-PNA pattern is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 Pretty happy with my Spring Outlook overall - let's see how I do in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Modles area showing a foot plus of rain over the next couple weeks in NE TX where rivers are already above flood stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 Canadian trended much colder for the West in May. Has El Nino into next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Seems like it's been a long time since we haven't had 2"-3" of rain in a week. Last nights storms brought 4.3" to my rain gage. The previous round last week brought 3". Lots of flooding issues across NE TX. More rain in the forecast before a nice brief reprieve over the weekend into Monday. Just in time for the Red Dirt Music & BBQ Festival! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, cstrunk said: Seems like it's been a long time since we haven't had 2"-3" of rain in a week. Last nights storms brought 4.3" to my rain gage. The previous round last week brought 3". Lots of flooding issues across NE TX. More rain in the forecast before a nice brief reprieve over the weekend into Monday. Just in time for the Red Dirt Music & BBQ Festival! Yep, it has been a very wet Spring and the GFS shows another foot over the next couple weeks. Flooding is going to just increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 No rain yesterday and the current batch is also staying south of I-20. Better chances later today here though. Good to have some break but areas S of I-20 in E TX got it good again yesterday. Corpus is about to be hit very hard by that little meso low storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Two tornado warnings in Central Texas one just E of Bastrop and the other SE of Bastrop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 The northern half of the Houston metro is under the gun from 3 separate supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Pretty impressive looking storm in South Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Tor warning Lincoln Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 There is a confirmed tornado near Lubbock. The radar images have looked even more impressive after the tornado was reported 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chinook said: There is a confirmed tornado near Lubbock. The radar images have looked even more impressive after the tornado was reported Very picturesque tornado (taken from Twitter, just don't know how to Hotlink) Credit: Mike Olbinski 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Incredible hook echo on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 Lots of snow in northern New Mexico overnight. My high tomorrow is forecast to be about 53F in Albuquerque - literally 40F or so colder than last year. Angel Fire had 18" at the base, 24" at the summit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Still about 5.5 feet of snow at 11,000 feet at the Taos Powderhorn site. The Nov-Apr period wasn't as wet as 2016-17, so snow pack never got as high as that year at that site, but the melt off has been slower from peak snow pack to late May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 1, 2019 Share Posted June 1, 2019 Here is how my Spring forecast did locally. Damn close for the seasonal high and monthly precip totals in Albuquerque, less good for the monthly highs. Original forecast document from 2/10 with the image below. https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Hail...still terrifying. SE New Mexico East of Albuquerque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 Late May-June 2017 were much warmer than 2019 so far, so at 11,000 feet up Taos Powderhorn snow pack is now much larger in 2019 than 2017 on June 8th. Still 48 inches of snow, which is higher - still - than at any point during the 2017-18 snow season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 Crane was knocked over by the winds in Dallss and fell on an apartment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 Would not want to be in that building. So far, my Summer 2019 analogs are doing pretty well for Albuquerque in June. Summer 2019 Analogs, 6/1-6/15 ABQ Average High 1966 88.5F 1966 88.5 1987 84.7 1992 84.2 1993 88.2 2015 86.9 Blend: 86.8F Actual 6/1-6/15 in 2019 85.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Snow still plainly visible on the highest mountains of New Mexico...on June 18, 2019. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 On 6/18/2019 at 9:21 PM, raindancewx said: Snow still plainly visible on the highest mountains of New Mexico...on June 18, 2019. If any remains into July 4th week I may hike up to it. I'll be up there enjoying the nice weather at 9k feet that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 The northern NM peaks could maybe sneak in a touch of snow this weekend especially Saturday night as freezing levels drop to near 9-10k feet with a bit of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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