Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[msp]

well that flash flood watch certainly did not amount to much but maybe a round of convection this evening with the ULL

[raindancewx]

Have to keep our eyes on the tropics nowadays - the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico could still veer west to LA/TX.

Looks like August 2016 is going to be just about the same temperature as September 2015 - which means it's a pretty cold month. We're at 86.2F through 28 days for the mean high, tied with September 2015 - with three more days for the mean high to drop slightly. Mean low is still a touch warmer than Sept 2015 here, but will likely end up very close to Sept 15 too. I figure w/ the Aug mean high colder than Sept 15, and the mean low warmer than Sept 15, the mean temperature for Aug 16 should just about equal Sept 15.

[aggiegeog]

Looking forward to a cool (relative) and dry weekend. Tomorrow morning will be my first sub 70 low this season and it could fall into the low 60s.

[raindancewx]

Weatherbell put up like five analog packages for the winter:

DJF - consensus between D'aleo/Bastardi/Downs

DJF - pioneer model (based on D'aleo correlating zones in the oceans w/ winter temps)

DJF - "sensible analogs" combining a weak Modoki La Nina with a warm western Atlantic

NDJ - analogs

JFM - analogs

The maps are interesting - they have a sharp split in NM, with the ~NE 1/4 of NM snowier than normal, but the SW 1/2 of NM less snowy than normal. I would say I'm right on the edge of being "normal" and "below normal". That does seem about right, most of the objective comparisons I come up with have ~7-9" for Albuquerque, against a long-term normal of 9.6". 7-9" is actually above average for a La Nina though. The maps have North Texas and most of Oklahoma doing well for snow.

The pioneer model does match SW precipitation patterns pretty well this monsoon, even though it is too cool for July / too warm for Aug against what we observed, but seems like the best match for winter. 

Seems like it's a slightly warm winter in NM - but the warmth (+3 to +5F) is centered near the NV/ID border. New Mexico is more like +0 to +2F.

[bubba hotep]

Snow!!!!!!!!

[aggiegeog]

After a couple morning of mid 60s we are back to more summer like temperatures this week. Fall looks to show its face around mid month with lows dropping into the 50s possibly.

[DFWWeather]

3 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

After a couple morning of mid 60s we are back to more summer like temperatures this week. Fall looks to show its face around mid month with lows dropping into the 50s possibly.

Today's latest ECMWF has H85 temps down to 9.5°C after strong cold front early next week for DFW Airport. That would certainly mean the colder spots outside the Metroplex could dip below 50°F. Not that unusual to fall into the 50s at DFW in September, but pretty rare to see temperatures in the 40s. The record low for the month is 40°F at DFW Airport. I say bring on Fall! 

[raindancewx]

Hurricane Newton is about to hit Mexico - should bring a lot of rain to Southern AZ/Southern NM and squash any attempt of the ridge of death from scouring out moisture after a relatively cold/wet August.  September is wetter than the long-term average in La Nina years in Albuquerque, so will be curious to see if we knock out a quick inch from Newton. I'm a bit conflicted, last year we were having a bone-dry Aug/Sept and then a tropical depression saved September, and pushed the monsoon from "dry" to "wet". Completely screwed up my snow calculator in Albuquerque based on summer conditions - jumped from 10"-->15.7" once we topped 4.3" rain on Sept 22...and we got 10".

 

[bubba hotep]

Each run of the Euro Weeklies creeps the snow farther to the south with all of Colorado and northern New Mexico locked in by the end of this latest run. Also, the control has snow in the Panhandle of Texas! Something like 40% of all Septembers see 100+ at DFW but the latest run doesn't even have a single member over 100 from here on out. This jives with the Euro EPS and GEFS, which both are hinting a series of cold fronts moving down. 

[bubba hotep]

Chances for weak La Nina or neutral conditions this winter continue to increase. That is a much better look for us here in Texas vs. mod or strong La Nina.

 

[raindancewx]

7 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Chances for weak La Nina or neutral conditions this winter continue to increase. That is a much better look for us here in Texas vs. mod or strong La Nina.

 

I only went back to 1931, but the years closest to ONI in JJA 2016 (-0.3), i.e. -0.2 to -0.4, are 1945, 1946, 1948, 1959, 1978, 1981, 1984, 1989, 1995, 1996, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2013. In the DJF season after the JJA season, those years averaged -0.42 for DJF, and the median is like -0.45. I'm expecting ONI in DJF to be between 0.0 and -1.0 - so for me I like weak La Nina years and cold Neutral years as analogs. Also think the peak (in La Nina territory) may come early, say SON, or OND, at -0.6 or -0.7 before fading to -0.3 or -0.4 for DJF.

[Chinook]

Was Houston vs. Lamar football game delayed about 2 hrs by lightning? Not sure. I saw that it was delayed at some point today. It didn't look like a thunderstorm was over downtown Houston. I am not that interested in the final score, but if weather played a factor in a long delay.

[raindancewx]

Pretty good rains today for much of Northern New Mexico. Monsoon for Albuquerque has corrected back towards normal substantially after today: now its ~bottom quarter rather than ~bottom 15%. May get more rains this week. Odds of a wet monsoon are back up to ~11.7% for Albuquerque.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a few nice days here in DFW before things turn wet again:

 

Then it is time to start sifting the tea leaves and looking for our first real cold shot of the season! 

[cstrunk]

On 9/10/2016 at 5:49 PM, Chinook said:

Was Houston vs. Lamar football game delayed about 2 hrs by lightning? Not sure. I saw that it was delayed at some point today. It didn't look like a thunderstorm was over downtown Houston. I am not that interested in the final score, but if weather played a factor in a long delay.

Yes, it was a weather delay. There were thunderstorms in the area that later dissipated.

[Chinook]

WPC forecast has 2.0" for Oklahoma City, Lubbock in 5 days, 1.75" for Kansas City. Kansas City and Wichita have already been very wet in the last 3 weeks.

[1900hurricane]

From the latest HGX discussion:

Quote

.CLIMATE...
Going through some rainfall data tonight and much of the area has
had some impressive rainfall totals. 2016 rainfall at Cypress,
Houston Westbury, Houston Bush and Baytown have all exceeded their
normal annual (1981-2010) rainfall and it`s only mid September.
Since January 1st 2015, Baytown has received 167.75 inches of rain
which is 67.08 inches above normal over the roughly 21 month
period. This location is averaging about 8 inches of rain per
month over the last 21 months. 43

 

[raindancewx]

Rains last week were pretty good at killing some of the drought in Southern/Eastern New Mexico. Also, the JMA (Japan) has agreed with NOAA that the PDO had a big drop from July to August - both show the PDO at essentially neutral (near 0) for August 2016. Still waiting on JISAO.

 

 

[bubba hotep]

The models are basically always wrong at D10 when showing something interesting for DFW but this would be fun in January or February!

 

 

[David Reimer]

1 hour ago, bubba hotep said:

The models are basically always wrong at D10 when showing something interesting for DFW but this would be fun in January or February!

 

 

This scenario would probably result in a decent severe weather threat for parts of Dixie Alley. 

[bubba hotep]

Maybe? Please? Anything!!

 

[bubba hotep]

We ended up with a decent soaking this morning and probably picked up 1/2" of rain.

[Roy]

I'm not really too upset about the recent dry spell since we had a wet period not too long ago, but a bit frustrating seeing everybody around DFW getting rain of late.

Definitely ready for this week's horrid temps to be over....

[bubba hotep]

100 today at DFW... Just filthy out there. And oh, look at that, another weekend cool shot is fading as we move closer. I see plenty of analogs that suggest we could be below avg temp wise this winter but it's hard to buy that right now.

[raindancewx]

My best guess in Texas will see a couple incredible cold shots in the winter, but overall a warm winter (>=2F+) from Dallas and south. This is what I have tentatively. I want to see the Aug PDO number - my local NWS says it is 0.52 for August (Univ Wash) but the figure isn't in yet when I go to the site. I was playing around with the PDO and the tendency is quite clear from 1951-2010:

PDO+: Cold in the East, mild from El Paso to Billings, warm west of El Paso to Billings

PDO-: Cold west of the continental divide, warm east of the continental divide

 

PDO=: Cold centered on TX, but from the NM/AZ border to Louisiana, and then up to Iowa and Wyoming, with everyone else warm.

 

Essentially...PDO borderline positive/neutral (average to cold for us!) offset by La Nina (warm to average for us!), offset by warm AMO/SE ridge for much of Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Nice little storm this evening

[radarman]

43 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Nice little storm this evening

nice shot.  Was caught in an absolute deluge under one of those cells just ne of DFW airport this evening.  Very picturesque sunset too.

[Quixotic1]

4 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

100 today at DFW... Just filthy out there. And oh, look at that, another weekend cool shot is fading as we move closer. I see plenty of analogs that suggest we could be below avg temp wise this winter but it's hard to buy that right now.

October is the bellwether.  Pun intended.  If this is going on as we approach Halloween, then I will panic.  

[bubba hotep]

The last couple of Euro runs have trended a bit more progressive with this next system and away from leaving the cutoff over the SW. That also trends towards a much wetter look for DFW and East Texas over the next week. 

[aggiegeog]

Cool weather and rain is becoming increasingly likely early next week. Wonder if we can get a day with a sub 70 high. Our first sub 60 lows look likely.

For NM, the ski resorts could see snow with this weekend's storm down to base level (8-9,000 feet).

Angel Fire, NM always amazes me with its temperature swings. On Monday, they fell to 23 around 5 am and the temp rose to a high of 79 in the afternoon.