Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[aggiegeog]

SHV has removed the 40% chance of rain for Monday night now just showing 50% chance of rain Monday evening. I think this is a more reasonable forecast at this point. There is just not much moisture to work with this far west. Though with strong forcing I could see some flurries after midnight for E TX. With a strong PNA ridge over the west there just is not any way for the front to tap into Pacific moisture. After the first few days of Feb we look to enter a much more favorable pattern for Southern Plains snow and the pattern does its annual retrogression to a -PNA and -EPO state as the TPV dissipates finally allowing a more typical Feb El Nino pattern to manifest.

[raindancewx]

We had a single day 10 point SOI drop 1/25 to 1/26. Last time that happened was 12/18-12/19 and it preceded the wave of storms running through the SW from about 12/26 to 1/15.

I don't really buy anything the models show right now since the MJO expectations are a mess, but we'll probably get to at least phase 7 at high amplitude.

[aggiegeog]

On 1/26/2019 at 10:03 AM, raindancewx said:

We had a single day 10 point SOI drop 1/25 to 1/26. Last time that happened was 12/18-12/19 and it preceded the wave of storms running through the SW from about 12/26 to 1/15.

I don't really buy anything the models show right now since the MJO expectations are a mess, but we'll probably get to at least phase 7 at high amplitude.

It has been a wacky year to forecast more than few days out. I still think TX will see some snow later in Feb as the STJ heats up, but how blocking sets up will be key for if it is 50 and rain for days or cold and some snow.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like by late ext week we could be dealing with a pattern conducive to Southern Plains winter storms. The details will have to be worked out as a large scale pattern shift will occur next week with the end of the TPV dominance and the return of the +ENSO dominance.

[raindancewx]

Back to 1931 in Albuquerque, every year October is wetter than September has been followed by measurable March precipitation. Not the case at all when September is wetter than October. There is a statistically significant difference disfavoring low precipitation Albuquerque during March when October is wetter than September, relative to years when September is wetter than October.

[cheese007]

Slight risk extending into DFW metro. Spring getting started early I guess

[DFWWeather]

So far, the 2018-2019 winter is the 5th warmest on record at DFW. This is a far cry from all the forecasts calling for temps this winter to be 1 to 3 below normal across Texas. Complete dud of a winter. I wonder if there is still time for us to get some bona fide Arctic air down here? The lowest temps so far this winter was way back in November (technically not even winter) of 25°F.

[cheese007]

Sometimes late February/early March can save a season (2014-2015 comes to mind). Am beginning to seriously consider the possibility that this is a "new normal" for DFW rather than a temporary anomaly. If no snow falls this season down by the airport we'll officially be in the longest snowless streak on record 

 

EDIT: If this seasons ends up at 5th warmest then 15-16, 16-17, and this winter winter then 3 of the last 4 years will fall in the top 10. Meanwhile 09-10 is the only season from this century in the top 10 coldest, with the next most recent top ten being 83-84.

[Sydney Claridge]

8 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Slight risk extending into DFW metro. Spring getting started early I guess

And the slight risk is back into the DFW metro as well, and even now extends south of DFW for wind and hail.  Highest tornado probabilities (5% within 25 miles) are in the northern section of the metro northwards to the Red River and over towards NE TX, SE OK, and central AR.

It's also interesting to see the elevated thunderstorms in NW OK, where there is a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for an area where some of the surface temperatures are hovering near the freezing mark.  Now if only that activity was in the warm sector...

[cheese007]

Severe thunderstorm currently traversing the metroplex. 60mph winds and nickel size hail

[aggiegeog]

Chances increasing for a mix of all types f winter precip tomorrow through Saturday morning. Around midday day tomorrow a mix of rain and snow will start in C TX this pushes into N and E TX through the afternoon. Through the evening and overnight the mid levels warm transitioning things to a sleet/rain mix or freezing rain depending on surface temps Sat morning. Chances for ice end in E TX by mid morning Sat. Some higher end potential with this though a minor event of 1/2" snow with some sleet/freezing rain on top seems most likely. Temps look to be in the 30s with this. 

[Sydney Claridge]

I cannot help but notice that the models are depicting a fairly active pattern over the next few weeks, with multiple systems off the Pacific coast (some fairly strong), and some staying fairly strong as they emerge onto the Plains.  If we can get sufficient moisture return (the big "if" in February), perhaps we might be entering a favorable pattern for severe thunderstorms soon if the models verify.

[aggiegeog]

A mixed bag of precip already reaching the ground from Del Rio to Lufkin this morning. This is much earlier in the day than expected. Seems that the wave is producing more lift than modeled.

[aggiegeog]

Winter weather advisory now out for north central Texas. I expect one to be issued this evening by SHV for E TX.

[cstrunk]

We've had some light/moderate sleet at times this evening in Longview but the temperature is above freezing and it's not enough to stick for long before melting. 

[aggiegeog]

When I was in Henderson yesterday afternoon it was sleeting hard and it brought the temp down to 28. Nothing that I know of in Hideaway.

[raindancewx]

https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook

This is what I have for Spring 2019. We'll see how I do.

[cheese007]

DFW winter hasn't even been close to the hype. Glad I was up in McKinney for the covering of snow up there a couple weeks back 

[raindancewx]

Red River, NM (8600 ft ASL) has had 97 inches of snow so far, at least at the resort base. They have good snow records for 1906-2014, and based on my analogs, I had them getting 160 inches of snow from September to June. By 3/1, I had them at 102 inches, so 97 through 2/13 is somewhat ahead of my pace so far. Will be interesting to see if that continues or not. It doesn't really look like it will warm up too much in the near future.

[aggiegeog]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Red River, NM (8600 ft ASL) has had 97 inches of snow so far, at least at the resort base. They have good snow records for 1906-2014, and based on my analogs, I had them getting 160 inches of snow from September to June. By 3/1, I had them at 102 inches, so 97 through 2/13 is somewhat ahead of my pace so far. Will be interesting to see if that continues or not. It doesn't really look like it will warm up too much in the near future.

Its been a decent winter up there. Far better than last year. Just no big storm that makes headlines. -PNA is sure helping keep the STJ focused on the SW.

[aggiegeog]

Heard from someone living at 9k feet in the are that my family has their pace that they had 0.5" of rain last night, crazy rare to get rain during winter that high. Those dirt roads are gonna be crazy muddy and then icy as temps drop and snow piles up again over the next few days.

[raindancewx]

There was very/record wet air with the raging subtropical jet yesterday. Reminded me a bit of Dec 2014 when it rained on the top of Sandia Peak (10,000+ feet), probably a 99th percentile warm event. Fortunately, the next few storms look much colder. My wet winter call for the SW hasn't really verified in New Mexico yet - Albuquerque is still around 0.20" below an average winter precipitation total, so need these coming storms to verify my forecast.

[raindancewx]

When I tried to re-create expected solar/ONI/ONI Prior conditions and match Fall highs (Oct/Nov) in Albuquerque, this was the only blend that worked. It's held up remarkably well since I started looking at it in early November. The math says solar, ONI, ONIp account for 70% of the variability in highs here in El Ninos. Will be interesting to see when/if this breaks going forward.

[aggiegeog]

Sleet is possible north of I-20 tomorrow. Sleet or not this should be a good rain even east of I-35.

[raindancewx]

I'm proud of the local NWS - they are finally acknowledging that elevation matters within the city for snow in a winter storm warning.
I think these totals are too high though. I'm at 5,350 feet at my house, so I'd expect just about four inches of snow.

NMZ507-519-190700-
/O.UPG.KABQ.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190220T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190220T0000Z/
West Central Highlands-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
445 PM MST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, except 4
  to 8 inches at elevations above 5400 feet and north of I-40.
  East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts around 45 mph below canyons
  opening into the middle Rio Grande Valley during the evening.

* WHERE...West Central Highlands and Middle Rio Grande Valley
  including the Albuquerque Metro Area and Grants.

* WHEN...After occasional snow showers this evening, snow will
  increase in coverage and intensity after midnight as the east
  canyon winds die down. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will
  occur late tonight through Tuesday morning, then periods of
  light to moderate snow Tuesday afternoon. Accumulating snow will
  end by late afternoon, though some light snow may linger into
  the evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult due to snowpacked
  and icy roads and reduced visibility. Wind chill temperatures in
  the single digits and teens will occur late tonight and Tuesday
  morning.

[raindancewx]

Two good snow events this week. The snow today I think saved my forecast for a wet winter in Albuquerque and New Mexico - at least 0.30 inches of precipitation, which brings the winter to above average. Highs will finish below average as forecast too.

[raindancewx]

Albuquerque is up to 9.5 inches of snow through 2/23 - that's the Oct-May average, so above average through 2/23.

Looking back at October 2018, the MJO went through phases 1-2-3 from Oct 1 to Oct 16, before moving into the dead zone. 

The MJO is forecast to move through phases 1-2-3 in from 2/25 to 3/10 on the European. 

In October, huge blobs of tropical moisture came into the SW throughout the month. Will be interesting to see if that happens - for NM, the best precipitation was a week after the move from phase 3 to null, which would be around 3/17 roughly if the MJO timing is right.

[cstrunk]

It's not over yet, but if doesn't look like there will be any snow here this winter. 

I'm ready for severe weather season. 

[Sydney Claridge]

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

It's not over yet, but if doesn't look like there will be any snow here this winter. 

I'm ready for severe weather season. 

Me too.  GFS is showing a pattern suggestive of cold waves in the Northern and Central Plains (along with surging cold fronts) but I'm not counting on that to translate into the Southern Plains as I've always noticed a cold bias with the GFS in the longer ranges.

[raindancewx]

This is a pretty interesting winter overall for the US.

Increasingly suspicious that the linkage between solar activity and blocking is real, I think there is a better case for solar activity controlling the MJO indirectly. I can't find a winter since 1974 where the MJO has gotten "stuck" as many times as it has this year in high solar activity years.

My Spring analogs actually had Texas pretty cold in March - but there are fairly strong correlations between low-solar activity and warmth in the SE 1/3 of the US. Bit of a dry signal for the SW US too. The blend I posted earlier is going to be dead on again locally for February (we're at 49.8F and will finish around 51F in February), and it has been close each month since October. If it has any similar skill at all in March it should be pretty cold in the Southwest in March. At this point I'm curious to see when it breaks, because it will at some point.