aggiegeog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 We are still looking at a multi inch rain event for much of the state with heavy snow in the Panhandle. Things end as snow showers for all north of I-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Models keep trending towards N TX. I am holding firm in my forecast since day one on this event of the best snow falling along I-44 and down towards just west of Abilene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Now looking like we may have an I-20 Special for Saturday afternoon. An upper low traversing from south of Big Bend and NE along I-20 will bring a narrow band of heavy snow to west Texas and likely into N TX possibly extending into NE TX during the day Saturday. Temps become marginal as it heads east though dynamic cooling from the intense upper low could overcome that for brief periods of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Already picked up nearly two thirds of an inch of rain just this morning into the afternoon in Buda, TX. Not bad for a 40 percent chance of a few passing showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It feels so strange to have dew-points in the 30s again after such a prolonged period here with dew-points around 0-10. Just a trace so far in the city, but the best shot for us was always Friday anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Fort Worth office mentioned possibility of snow late Thursday/early Friday if temps are cooler than expected. Skeptical but intrigued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 7 hours ago, cheese007 said: Fort Worth office mentioned possibility of snow late Thursday/early Friday if temps are cooler than expected. Skeptical but intrigued 0Z GFS agrees. Nothing significant tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 10 hours ago, vwgrrc said: 0Z GFS agrees. Nothing significant tho I'd be happy with a dusting at this point, ecstatic for a half inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Thursday and Thursday night maybe into Friday morning will be wild across Texas with strong storms and heavy rain ahead of the low and blizzard conditions on the backside. The sweet spot for snow among all models seems to be east of Abilene, but really anywhere north of I-10 has at least a slight chance for some snow mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Winter storm watch up for western north Texas. May get a dusting in DFW area. Don't want to get my hopes up too much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Big changes starting around New Year's and especially in January as the SSW event leads to a -AO. Just how cold will depend on the EPO. Moisture should continue to be prevalent through the winter. We are about to enter the much anticipated winter season. Enjoy the next couple weeks of near normal temps because those will be rare in the heart of winter this year. Fingers crossed for a few storms to hit jackpot for us. I still hold to my previous predictions of most spots in TX north of I-20 receiving seasonal snowfall totals of over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Looks stormy here after Christmas. I'm still a bit skeptical that these systems will have much moisture with the SOI so positive for weeks now (+10.2 for 12/1-12/23), but we'll see. I do think the cold is fairly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 I missed most of the rain, which saddens me --- but, I also missed the tornadoes. I'll take getting dryslotted. I can live without rain, as long as I miss the tornado lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 I'm looking forward to seeing if this verifies in the favored zone or if Accuweather is way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Snow chances are increasing for next Wed across most of the state though I would say that NE TX is in the best spot to see something accumulate. About half of Euro ensemble members show accumulation for N & NE TX wit the Sulphur Springs area being the epicenter. Still too far out to really get into details though. This may be the I-20 tracking winter season closed low we have been waiting for. That said I still think the heart of our snow chances are mid winter (1/15-2/20ish). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Accuweather's '8%' event verified, it was 2.5" officially. This is what they have next - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I am becoming concerned about the potential for icing early Wed before the deeper cold arrives for a transition to all snow. The globals struggle to see STJ moisture so I think there could be more precip earlier and further west than indicated now. Hopefully the cold is deep enough that most everything is either rain or snow. If this upper low can track south of El Paso the there is some high end potential for snow ala 2/11/2010 as the cold is here ahead of the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, aggiegeog said: I am becoming concerned about the potential for icing early Wed before the deeper cold arrives for a transition to all snow. The globals struggle to see STJ moisture so I think there could be more precip earlier and further west than indicated now. Hopefully the cold is deep enough that most everything is either rain or snow. If this upper low can track south of El Paso the there is some high end potential for snow ala 2/11/2010 as the cold is here ahead of the moisture. Should be interesting to watch, that's for sure. And in fact, this morning's 6z NAM run is showing a potential icing event from the Hill Country up towards DFW, with greater ice accumulations showing up around Llano and Gatesville (with the event ongoing at the end of the run, though it's too early to delineate where winter precipitation may accumulate at this time). But like you mentioned, the GFS and other global models are not picking up on anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said: Should be interesting to watch, that's for sure. And in fact, this morning's 6z NAM run is showing a potential icing event from the Hill Country up towards DFW, with greater ice accumulations showing up around Llano and Gatesville (with the event ongoing at the end of the run, though it's too early to delineate where winter precipitation may accumulate at this time). But like you mentioned, the GFS and other global models are not picking up on anything. 12z GFS is showing that as well. Not exactly over DFW metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Weather.com has the Jan 1-5 high in Albuquerque at about 29F, which is second coldest in the last 100-years for that period if that ends up verifying. It's probably off a bit, but don't think it will be terribly wrong either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Euro showing hints of a Thu snow event. After the freezing rain on Wed. As expected models are shifting the low south to I20 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The city had snow today. Very cold for most of the day, it was somehow 34F from like 11:45 pm to 12:05 am and then not above freezing at any other time on 12/31 or 1/1, so that kind of artificially raised highs on both days, oh well. Most of the snow today fell around 20F temps, so most places got 1-5" with only 0.05-0.20" liquid equivalent in town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 This will be a very impactful storm for Texas with heavy snow for NW Texas, significant icing possible for west central Texas up through western N Texas and flooding rain for Central, SE and East Texas. And at the end Thursday evening and night the DFW through NE Texas corridor could see snow. The upper low train looks to continue all winter and the real cold induced by the recent SSW will commence in mid Jan and last for a good while so snow chances will increase dramatically for many of us. This is still on tap to be a very snow winter for the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I'm on the west side of Fort Worth and there is currently a light rain with temperatures just below freezing (31F), with most of Tarrant County (aside from the easternmost portions) also at or just below freezing. Paved surfaces seem wet and not icy at the present moment, although there does seem to be a little bit of ice on surfaces that are less likely to retain warmth (like leaves and the metal railing just outside my house). Concern for icing seems to be further west where precipitation has yet to develop (but will), as per SPC mesoscale discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I live right on the Plano/Frisco line at the DNT/Sam Rayburn and much like in Fort Worth, the temp is at 32 here but nothing is icing. Just wet and nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Things seem to be going according to plan so far. Some freezing rain for western DFW but roads should be good. Watch out again tonight for the same scenario. Areas west of DFW could get more significant icing later this morning. Still looks like areas along and north of I-20 have a shot at snow under the upper low late tomorrow and through Friday morning in NE TX. Heavy rain for Central and East Texas will lead to some flooding issues as we have been wet for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Looks like the freezing line is pushing a bit further through DFW now. Hearing reports of icing on elevated roads in western and northern DFW. Temps are nearing freezing in Dallas County now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Looks like the freezing line is pushing a bit further through DFW now. Hearing reports of icing on elevated roads in western and northern DFW. Temps are nearing freezing in Dallas County now. Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line. Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well. Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches. It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted. Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line. Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well. Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches. It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted. Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue. I wonder how quick temps will fall this evening esp if they only rise to 33 or 34 this afternoon. If temps get down around 30 then elevated surfaces will really become an issue tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Models are doing terrible on surface temps today. They are running way too warm. Which in turn leads to forecasts including the NWS being way warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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