Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[aggiegeog]

1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

Yep it was the Wednesday event! Just wasn't seeing it discussed anywhere else so was curious 

Yea, too bad it doesn't have any moisture to work with I was hoping it would dig just a bit more though the Canadian still offers some hope it will be dynamic enough for a bit in NE TX.

[raindancewx]

It is only November 12, but the high of 36F today was colder than every high since 1/26/2017. Looking forward to seeing if we really can drop to 15F or so tonight.

[aggiegeog]

 Have seen reports of snow tonight from E TX. A band of snow is moving across SC TX and should move into SE TX later this morning. No accumulations expected beyond a dusting though maybe a quarter inch if it becomes convective. This would be the earliest snow for most if it occurs.

[aggiegeog]

NE NM received 6-12 inches of snow with the ski resorts getting 10-15 inches and the peaks likely over 2 feet. Not a bad storm especially considering its not the first snow of the season. A good snow pack is building up which after last year is a blessing.

[aggiegeog]

Angel Fire, NM reported -27 with light snow overnight. It can get brutally cold in that valley.

[aggiegeog]

Reports of snow continue across E TX today and per the models this activity will continue through the night. Maybe after dark some spots will get a dusting.

[aggiegeog]

The pattern that is setting up for the winter is incredible. You can not draw it up any better. On paper this is better than 09/10. Now I can't say any one storm will dump a foot again, but seasonal totals north of I-20 in Texas could reach 10" and very possible 20". Things begin at the end of this month.

[raindancewx]

I went with 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as my blend for winter, but I think 1986 may end up being the top year, I'd consider that a better version of 2009 (low solar, after a La Nina, relatively cold AMO, etc).

CPC is still stubbornly not showing anyone cold for the winter. But their November outlook from 10/18 is pretty terrible so far, so not really worried about it.

[raindancewx]

I have a regression for El Nino winter highs here, and it seems to be working well. Low Solar + Big El Nino + After Big La Nina is the ideal for cold. I'd give solar a 10, the El Nino an 7.5, and the La Nina last year a 6.5 as a blend, it's like 24/30, or a solid 8/10 on an "ideal cold" scale. I don't really expect this blend to work at all for precipitation or national temps as it doesn't really incorporate the MJO, or how much colder the Atlantic is in these years, but I think its probably close for DJF highs here.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like all is falling into place for our first winter storm around Dec 3rd. Models should begin to show this within a few days. Look for a SW low to form within the next week and roll east along the SW border with a broad eastern US trough and a ridge over the NE Pacific.

[aggiegeog]

The ensembles are showing the -EPO/-PNA/=NAO pattern that can be great around here for early Dec. I still am targeting the 12/3-5 period for a possible Texas winter storm.

[vwgrrc]

21 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

The ensembles are showing the -EPO/-PNA/=NAO pattern that can be great around here for early Dec. I still am targeting the 12/3-5 period for a possible Texas winter storm.

It's possible. But I personally feel there's not enough moisture to work with the cold. Maybe this is too far to make that call still?

[aggiegeog]

9 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

It's possible. But I personally feel there's not enough moisture to work with the cold. Maybe this is too far to make that call still?

The moisture is there but where it sets up will depend on how deep the western trough digs. For TX the trough will need to dig south of the border. Models right now are showing it more in the CA/NV area which keeps most activity north of here. I'll be watching to see if the initial trough late this week can dig south to near the US/MX border vs 4 corners. If it can then I think next week is very interesting as each piece should dig a tad further than the prior piece of this general western trough.

[raindancewx]

Assuming we finish with almost no precipitation here for November in Albuquerque. I had to re-do my replication analogs. With the very dry November after a very wet October, you have a strong signal now for a wet December in Albuquerque. The interesting thing is almost all of these years have a lot of snow in Feb-Mar here, with little in January, and then average snow in December. I've been doing this replication method for a few years now, this was definitely the hardest blend I've ever had to re-create, as I limit myself to blends where each re-creation is within 0.2" of observed conditions. If you get every month from July-Dec within 0.2", it tends to predict Jan-Jun well overall, i.e. in three month aggregates.

Also, 1974 and 2008 are low solar years, 1969 and 2008 have big hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico. Every year in this blend is above average for December.

[aggiegeog]

The system around the 8th has real potential for snow in Texas if it can stay along or south of the US/MX border. Otherwise it is a good rain event with show in NM and NW TX. The -EPO should supply the cold so it all depends on the track of the low. If it can cross Texas as a closed low the or chances for snow and significant rain increase a lot. Following this storm temps will moderate as we get into a zonal flow for a bit before hopefully cooling down for Christmas.

[It's Always Sunny]

3 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

The system around the 8th has real potential for snow in Texas if it can stay along or south of the US/MX border. Otherwise it is a good rain event with show in NM and NW TX. The -EPO should supply the cold so it all depends on the track of the low. If it can cross Texas as a closed low the or chances for snow and significant rain increase a lot. Following this storm temps will moderate as we get into a zonal flow for a bit before hopefully cooling down for Christmas.

You may not want to go around saying that word this far out lol. Looks more like a potential panhandle snow event as of now. 

[It's Always Sunny]

Just noticed the SPC has a slight over NE TX though. Will be interesting to see how that materializes.

[aggiegeog]

5 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

You may not want to go around saying that word this far out lol. Looks more like a potential panhandle snow event as of now. 

As I have been saying for a month next week has potential. The -EPO will supply the cold and we will have a strong shortwave moving into So Cal next week. If the low can stay south until east of El Paso we all stand a good chance.

[cheese007]

Enhanced risk upgrade extending from Dallas into the ArkLaTex

[aggiegeog]

This system will bring some heavy snow to the NM mountains.

[aggiegeog]

Storms tonight then a nice weekend then a trailing shortwave on Monday. It would not take much amplification for this trailing shortwave to spit some flurries over N and N TX on Monday. Then most of next week looks cool with multiple morning freezes. Rain return Friday into Saturday and maybe Sunday. Much of the state looks to see 1-3" of rain from this. Up in OK and KS this could begin as a decent ice storm. In TX there could be a changeover to snow late Saturday. The 8th is going to be a very interesting day to watch on the models, but the 3rd is also sneaky.

[aggiegeog]

In the NM mountains, resorts will likely see 6-12" of snow this weekend with another round of possibly even heavier snow late next week.

[aggiegeog]

Looking at the Euro ensembles, next weekend could feature winter storm for Texas with over half of the members showing some snow in either N or NE TX and close to a quarter of the members showing greater than three inches somewhere in N or NE TX. A few members have close to a foot along the Red River. Ice is also possible especially west of DFW early on in this event. Beyond the snow possibility of heavy rain with some members highlighting 6+ inches locally over E TX. A huge chunk of the state should receive over half an inch.  

[raindancewx]

Might get snow in the city Sunday morning. We'll have to see. I've never seen a CPC Outlook like this one for December -

[aggiegeog]

Still looks to me that we are still going to see south shifts in the precip areas for the late week storm. Surface lows that track from the TX coast to LA do not typically drop precip much into OK. The GFS shows the mid level low way NW of the surface low, but that does not seem like how these have acted in the past.

I expect widespread precip on Friday all over the Southern Plains as the front pushes into the STJ. It will be a now cast to see how quickly the cold air comes to see who gets ice, snow or heavy rain. Then by Sat morning the surface low takes over ending precip west of a Abilene to SE OK line while pulling down more cold air so the backside of the precip should lay down a few inches of snow east of the line I stated above.  

[aggiegeog]

For N and NE TX the upcoming event looks like a cold rain with maybe some flurries Saturday night into Sunday morning. West of a Abilene to WF line there could be some snow or mixed precip on Friday. Along the Red River there could be some accumulating snow on Saturday and into Saturday night. Rain amounts could reach 6 inches locally between I-10 and I-20 east of I-35.

[raindancewx]

Models are kind of a mess with this system for timing, duration and location. Hopefully they become more consistent tomorrow. 

[cheese007]

Really hope this year is not like last year with all the cold rain

[aggiegeog]

After Christmas we will see the most blocking we have seen since 09/10 so that should hopefully allow us to see more occasions where temps end up cold.

[aggiegeog]

The models are going the direction that was expected with temps trending colder and the system trending south. I expect the 18Z NAM to lay down some good snow totals over DFW late Saturday.