raindancewx Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Increasingly looking like October 2018 will be the first cold month here since August 2017 on a mean high basis, relative to 1931-2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Slight risk for big chunk of TX today. Mainly a wind threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 September in Buda was very rainy compared to what I have come to expect in this region at that time of year. We got 12.5 inches of rain last month. We have also picked up 4 inches of rain in Buda this month so far. I love El Ninos! On another note however, the capping over AUS and San Antonio appears to be MUCH MUCH stronger than earlier advertised, so it looks as though tonight most of the rain will fall well east of I 35, then tomorrow most of the rain will fall well west of I 35. I'm new down here in central TX. But it sure does seem that AUS tends to be in a precipitation minimum much of the time, lol. It'll be cooler Monday thru Thursday but probably just a few passing light sprinkles. I'll take the cooler weather with a north breeze tomorrow over tonight's 87/77 conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Strong cold frontal boundary passed thru Buda TX at approx 110am. Temps and dewpoints are falling, temperature fell from 78 to 67 and dewpoints fell from 76 to 64 in a matter of 15 minutes. Surface winds are gusting to 26mph out of the NW. This cold airmass means BUSINESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Tyler was still at 69 at midnight so no record cold high today, but there is a chance that tomorrow through Friday could set record cold highs. Tyler's record lows are in the 30s now so we won't quite get there. Tomorrow's record rainfall is is 2.00" so that will be challenged also. Averages for mid Oct in Tyler are 57/78 so way below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Looks like the high here was 43F today. That is colder than...99.6% of all October highs since 1931 here. Record coldest high is 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Central Texas rainfall of over 7" caused some rivers to go into flood stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 THe cold and wet weather looks like i is here to stay. GFS shows no highs above 75 through the end of Oct. Op and ensembles runs of multiple models are showing some very cold air in time for Halloween with a possibility of wintery mischief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 36 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: GFS snows Can't help but think this is a Freudian slip given the lack of snow the last few years. Hoping this year is different but the wettest falls are usually followed by well below average snowfall historically so not getting my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Can't help but think this is a Freudian slip given the lack of snow the last few years. Hoping this year is different but the wettest falls are usually followed by well below average snowfall historically so not getting my hopes up Well the GFS is dang close to showing a white Halloween. Shades of 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 This October cold spell here is already basically as cold as it got all of last winter for any sustained period. My analogs had an October high of 68F here. That may end up too warm....since through 10/17 we're already down to 68.4F for the October high. The high of 68.4F for 10/1-10/17 is actually the 4th coldest in Albuquerque since 1931. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 18 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Well the GFS is dang close to showing a white Halloween. Shades of 1993. Wasn't it last year where models always had some sort of winter storm that was perpetually seven days out that just never came? Though I will say a snowy Halloween would be very fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 The crazy 12Z GFS op run notwithstanding, models generally sticking with late month Polar blocking with troughing over the Lower 48 for late this month into early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Going forward, this is probably a decent way to estimate final El Nino / La Nina strength in winter. The 100W-180W numbers come from here - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Implies around 27.6C for Nino 3.4 this DJF, give or take 0.55C or so, peak ONI of right around +0.5 to +1.5 against the 1985-2014 base NOAA uses (26.58C), just like the models show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Texas will see another round of very heavy rain next week which we def do not need. This will be followed by our next cold shot which could bring a frost/freeze at least to northern TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Phoenix, for 10/1-10/20, is having its second coldest observed mean high since 1895, of 81F. That is around 20F below the record heat in October 1991. Albuquerque is seeing the 6th coldest high for 10/1-10/20, at around 16F below the record heat for the period in October 1979. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 The pre Halloween system looks like it is going to not have the SW extension like models had shown last week, but the post Halloween pattern still looks chilly with a -EPO and either a western or plains based longwave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 The post Halloween weekend is really starting to capture my attention. -EPO with a western longwave trough digging SW towards Baja plus a East coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Against 1931-2017 means, the 10/1-10/23 mean high here is still running 5.6F below average, behind only 1984, 1986, and 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Total precipitation in August & October has a lot of predictive power here for when the snowiest month will be within the Oct-May cold season. If you throw out 1948-49 when April was snowiest and the three years with "ties" for snowiest month, some pretty distinct patterns emerge for what to look for if a certain month is going to be snowiest. Snowiest August October Nov 1.74" 0.51" Dec 1.71" 0.94" Jan 1.47" 0.61" Feb 1.13" 0.70" Mar 1.44" 1.40" 2018 0.95" 1.64" Prior to the heavy rains over the past two days, February's composite was closest to what we observed in August & October. With the huge rains in October, MARCH, which hasn't been wet in Albuquerque since 2007, is now the closest composite. That being said, some years when December is snowiest have big Octobers too, but the data at least implies a secondary stormy period in February-March. My main issue is Albuquerque has only had over three inches of snow in March one time since 1931 in a year without high sunspot activity (3/1975). "High" I define as an average of at least 55 sunspots per month from July-June. Every 100 sunspots on an annualized basis is worth about 0.11" in Albuquerque, so the March number for precipitation would be 1.10" if the blend below holds. Snow would also be lower if the sunspot idea is correct, closer to four inches instead of six, and even four inches of snow would be the highest March snow total in Albuquerque in a low-solar year since 1931. The other (low) possibility is that the solar minimum is now, i.e. Oct/Nov 2018, and we will rapidly ramp up in activity by March allowing a big snow total as shown below. If the composite idea is correct, 1957, 1972, 2004, 2004, 2004, 2015 blended together is a near perfect match to July-Oct precipitation by month here, and all of those years but 2015-16 had their top snowfall in March. Snow Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total 1957 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.3 0.5 7.3 0.0 0.0 13.0 1972 0.0 2.9 1.2 9.5 1.8 13.9 8.1 0.0 37.4 2004 0.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 2004 0.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 2004 0.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 2015 0.0 0.0 7.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 Mean 0.1 1.3 2.0 2.3 0.5 5.6 1.6 0.0 13.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 I am thinking about taking a Thanksgiving week trip to the mountains with the family if there is some snow on the ground up around 9k feet which seems likely right now. Our place likely got about a foot from this system with more in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 I had to adjust my precipitation replication analogs with the rains in late October here - we had 1.99" for the month. The simplest blend I could come up with in an El Nino is 1941, 1957, 2004. That gets July, August, September and October within 0.2" each month v. 2018 observations. Those years all have major hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico too. It is interesting to note that all of those years were part of multi-year warm events (though 2003-04 was a Warm Neutral). These years also all feature pretty major snow storms in March, which essentially never happens here (in the valleys) without high sunspot support. Will be interesting to see if maybe the sun rapidly starts getting active again, or if this is some kind of grand exception to the March sunspot snow rule. 28% of years (15/53) with over 55 sunspots from July-June see heavy March snow, but in all others, only 3% (1/34) do. There are actually at least two other blends that work for July-Oct, but they have more years. November should be clarifying - all three replication blends have an active November, around 0.8-1.0 inches of precipitation. I think the blend must still be off a bit - mostly because I think we'll get pretty good snows in December this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Monday is looking very interesting for Texas with snow possible for everyone north of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Last winter's pattern appears to be showing up again. It's veeery early for snow here, but models show that there's an outside chance, especially over high land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 A lot of the things I'm seeing (relatively) independently point to a wet and/or cold March in the SW US and Northern Mexico. Very Positive NAO in October: Hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico in the hurricane season before an El Nino winter. Albuquerque 2F below average (1931-2017 basis) high for October (71.3F = average) and November (57.3F = average) in an El Nino year. We were 66.8F in October. November looks cold now too, with a high of maybe 38F on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Thunder-snow by Los Alamos today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 The pics from the NM mountains are incredible. Love the pics ave vids from the Plains also. Here in NE TX I'll have my shot on Wed for decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 9 hours ago, aggiegeog said: The pics from the NM mountains are incredible. Love the pics ave vids from the Plains also. Here in NE TX I'll have my shot on Wed for decent snow. Where are you seeing this info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 39 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Where are you seeing this info? Which portion are you referring to? If the Wed event, there will be a strong closed low crossing the state though it looks like it may stay positive tilted so it will struggle to get enough moisture. Chances go up the further NE you are though it could wait to produce until it reaches Arkansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Which portion are you referring to? If the Wed event, there will be a strong closed low crossing the state though it looks like it may stay positive tilted so it will struggle to get enough moisture. Chances go up the further NE you are though it could wait to produce until it reaches Arkansas. Yep it was the Wednesday event! Just wasn't seeing it discussed anywhere else so was curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now