raindancewx Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 I've decided to roll with 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as my Fall analogs. Cold AMO ring, slightly positive PDO, El Nino developing, La Nina in prior winter, low-solar, similar Modoki structure, and similar Monsoon conditions. So we'll see how it does. We had near record November highs here last year (65.4F, average in Nov is 57.3F), so that is the main reason for the huge drop off expected. Going from +3.3F for Fall highs to -1.4F for Fall highs against 1951-2010 is what the analogs get for Albuquerque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted August 30, 2018 Share Posted August 30, 2018 Well, I missed again on the localized thunderstorms the last two days. Close, but no cigar. Frustrating. NWS gives us a 20% chance today, followed by a dry day or two before 40-50% chances return Sunday through Tuesday. Crossing my fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 61F at noon here in Albuquerque. We had a rare significant rainfall event in the morning - easy way to get a cold day here in the Summer. Likely our first day not hitting 80F since June 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Wow. Send some of that up here. 88 F today after 80 predicted. Getting real dry again. About 0.75" rain in the past month and a bit over an inch the month before that. I think that qualifies as a nonsoon. My water bill is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 I reside permanently in Buda Texas as of last Sunday. Buda got an eighth of an inch of rain earlier today. We're very thankful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 I ended up with around 0.5" yesterday and today. Definitely needed. We only made it into the mid 80's today which was wonderful for Labor Day in Texas. I'm hoping we can cash in on some of the moisture from Gordon later this week, too. It seems like he might go a bit too far north/east. Something to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Buda is in northern Hays County, about 15 miles south of Austin along I 35. We received 3 inches of rain this afternoon. We are even more thankful for that rain, it is needed down here, and now I am praying other parts of Texas get much needed rain, but not flooding. The grass is already responding to the recent rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Sept 1-3 average high temperature (77.33F) is the third coldest start to September in Albuquerque since 1931. We're 10% of the way through the month, and more rain seems to be coming this week, so will be hard for highs to rebound much. Pretty decent odds of a cold September now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Looks like I'll miss out on most of the Gordon rainfall, but the residual tropical moisture combined with a trough of low pressure/cold front moving into the region late this week is forecast to bring some good rains to the area. Hopefully 2"+ like the WPC has shown on their QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 The big SOI crash in recent days implies a fairly cold Texas in November if we finish well into the -SOI territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Looks like Austin lucked out on this round, I am not sure how it is happening, but all of the rain is going around us. I sure feel sorry for places to our west and north, the rain has been torrential and relentless in those areas for the past few days. I hate when it rains on my outings here. It wont today or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Officially got 0.31" of rain today. That brings June 15-Sept 9 to 4.50" exactly for Albuquerque. The 1931-2017 mean for June 15-Sept 30 is 4.32". So we've had an above average monsoon here now. For June 15-Sept 9, against 1981-2010 we're about +17% now, against 1931-2017, +28%. El Nino cold seasons after a wet monsoon tend to be snowy here - (long-term snow mean is 9.6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I ended up getting 0.4-0.5" of rain spread out over the weekend. Gordon never made it this far west, so totals were less than expected. Light rain expected today and through much of the upcoming week. These lower temperatures are sure nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 I remain optimistic for this winter. There isn't a huge signal for extreme cold or extreme wetness here, but compared to last year, average is going to seem pretty great. My winters with <=50% of normal DJF precipitation and highs 3F or more above the long-term mean are pretty rare - 1933, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2013 and then last year. The following years, 1934, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2014 are varied, but overall, the signal is for a somewhat wet winter with average highs. Most of these years feature one fluke snow event outside Dec-Feb, Oct, Nov, Mar, Apr, May all had measurable snows. My winter last year was close to a blend of 1933-34, 1985-86, 2005-06, so tentatively looking at 1934-35, 1986-87, 2006-07 for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 Let's go King NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Some really nasty floodong across TX these past few days. Really something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 I've done some research on the SOI for snowfall here. It isn't a great indicator for individual months, except a -SOI in Aug/Sept/Oct all pretty strongly favor snow in November here. High Oct-May seasonal snow, and a high single month for snow is favored with a -SOI in those months too. The NAM is bringing pretty good rainfall here Tues Night/Weds Morning, with snow for the tallest peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 We got almost 9" of rain over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Assuming the El Nino does develop - and it looks like it is to me - 15 rainy days during the Monsoon is a lot historically, and corresponds pretty well here to a lot of snow in our snowiest month of Nov-Apr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Well, I bought a simple, cheap rain gage and mounted it on my mailbox this weekend. It ended up reading 3.8", which I find hard to believe since radar estimates were generally 1.5"-2". A coworker who lives about 5 miles east of me ended up with just under 2". I'm glad that fall has arrived! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 Some indications of a pretty good early season snow for the New Mexico mountains next weekend. That is on top of whatever rain/mountain peak snow they get from Rosa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Still looks good for the mountains to get snow here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 On 9/26/2018 at 7:30 AM, cstrunk said: Well, I bought a simple, cheap rain gage and mounted it on my mailbox this weekend. It ended up reading 3.8", which I find hard to believe since radar estimates were generally 1.5"-2". A coworker who lives about 5 miles east of me ended up with just under 2". I'm glad that fall has arrived! Good to hear - whatever the exact measurement is it sounds like you got a good rain. Here in northern Colorado we can't buy a good rain now. At my location northwest of Fort Collins we're currently at 70 days without any significant precip. We seem to be too far north, too far south, too far east, or too far west to catch any storm that comes along. We've run out of directions to miss storms from 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Potential tropical remnants middle of next week? I buy it. Balloon Fiesta is in town, biggest tourism event of the year in the whole state. Nice to see rain and mountain snow coming though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Hope all are enjoying the return of cool temps. I got down to 52 this morning. We have the remnants of Sergio to bring us some more rain this weekend then a strong cold front for the beginning of next week. Monday and Tuesday look downright chilly to even cold for most of the state with overrunning precip. A decent snowstorm is likely for the Panhandle with mixed precip SE from there a ways. Highs in the 40s for most of TX Mon and Tue. N TX likely won't see 60 until late week at best. This is all thanks to the -EPO dumping Canadian cold air and a Baja low pumping in Pacific moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Looks like we may get snow even in Albuquerque. I think the models are a bit under done on Sergio, although they have kind of trended up two steps, down one for the last few runs. I like 0.05-0.25" locally more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 I wonder what everyone is thinking about the severe weather potential tomorrow in Texas? Currently SPC has a slight risk in place for an area roughly bounded by Fort Worth to the NE, Killeen to the SE, and Abilene to the W. Multiple NAM and NAM3K runs are getting some pretty high EHI values into parts of the north-central Texas region, though SPC is calling the NAM overdone. Just waiting for what the 18z HRRR run has to say, though; that said, the 12z HRRR run does keep the surface-based instability south of the DFW Metroplex by about 2 counties or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Next week will feature a pattern that will likely be typical of the next 5 months. We will see cold, surface air flowing down the Plains with a noisy subtropical jet over top of the cold. This early in the season the wintery precip will likely be confined to NW TX but maybe some sleet mixes in Monday into N TX. Highs in N TX will likely be near 40 for N TX Monday and not much warmer for Tuesday before it slowly warms up through the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: Next week will feature a pattern that will likely be typical of the next 5 months. We will see cold, surface air flowing down the Plains with a noisy subtropical jet over top of the cold. This early in the season the wintery precip will likely be confined to NW TX but maybe some sleet mixes in Monday into N TX. Highs in N TX will likely be near 40 for N TX Monday and not much warmer for Tuesday before it slowly warms up through the rest of the week. Sounds like a fun winter with great potential down the road! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Handful of tornado warnings today. Unusual for mid October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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