raindancewx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 The MJO forecast site hasn't updated but BOM data is through 2/20 now, and it looks like the European forecast on 2/19 underestimated the magnitude of the MJO against. It was still in phase 8 on 2/20. Also, the big SOI reversal has started, BOM had a +14.65 reading for 2/22. The Feb 1-22 value is now up to -14.5. The monthly value will be anywhere from -8 to -16 if values were to be in the -16 to +16 range for the rest of the month. I do think the next six days are mostly positive, so I think the real value is probably (~90%) -8 to -12 at this point, outside chance of -7 or -13, if you get one or two incredible high/low reading in the next six, say a +35 or a random -10 to offset the mostly positive look. If we end up with only slightly positive values, <1.4, this is a 20-point drop from January, something that has happened only 14-times since 1931. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Day 2 enhanced for parts of east Texas. Spring has come early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Can't wait to see what the Canadian has for March on 2/28. The CFS seems to be trying really hard to combine low-solar La Nina conditions with the big -SOI drop (low-solar El Nino). I made this after last March for future reference - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Well the storms in Longview today were a dud. Barely even any thunder, let alone severe weather. Another day of rain though. We probably ended up with close to four inches this week. I'm ready for a few dry days, but it looks like rain and storms will return Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Maybe this event gets eaten away from the East? I'd assumed the warmth would come to Nino 1.2 last, but its probably going to be warmer than average in March after the cold February. Nino 1.2 was 23.32C in January (-0.9C v. 1951-2000), probably ~25.10C (-0.6C v. 1951-2000) in February, but the trend is up, and fast, so maybe 26.5C in March (+0.4C v. 1951-2000)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 39 here this morning. I do expect a few frosts next week with at least one freeze for rural areas likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 years ago today I experienced a sleet thunderstorm. Maybe the most amazing thing I have ever experienced weather wise. Ended up with around 2" of pure sleet though there was a lot of wind so hard to get accurate measurements with the drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 We have yet to hit 70F down here, and are now up to 73 frosts through 3/2 (probably won't get one today). It was 75F on 2/10 and then 70F on 2/11 last year, so this is more typical, with the first 70F reading of the year usually around 3/8. The European has been trying to go to what my analogs had for March: a wet period mid-month, sandwiched between two dry periods (3/1-3/6 and 3/21-3/31). Theoretically, it should also be a lot colder than last March, as Nino 1.2 is colder than last year, and there is some blocking, with we've seen drier nights year/year each month since December. Feb SOI is a good indicator on highs in March, as is first 70F day. If/when we get decent precip in March...I think we're done for significant precipitation down here until June, when the data suggests the monsoon develops early and fierce. Amarillo has had exactly 0.01 inches of rain for the Oct 14-March 2 period. It seems like SOME kind of pattern is WAY overdue that can bring that area some precipitation. I'm not sure i believe an area of the US outside maybe Yuma is capable of getting that little rain for much more than a six month period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The grass is starting to green up around here. We got a bit of light rain today, and have a decent chance of rain again tomorrow, but I'm glad that we're going to get a break after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Record dry soundings here today (dewpoint: -15F right now at 8:40 pm, 43F air temp). I'm rooting for the low tomorrow morning to get to 22F. That would be the coldest March reading in the city since 2008. If we get to 16F, that's the coldest March reading in the city since 2002. The 1931-2017 record for March is +8F. If we had snow on the ground with this airmass I think we've have a shot at it, but without the snow, can't see it dropping below 15F in any scenario. I'd assuming 19F, +/-4F. Models can't seem to decide if the MJO keeps going (BOM), reverses back into phase two (Euro), or just dies. Consensus might be slow movement in/around phase 2/3 for another 3-5 days? The Euro has something like the light-blue line, BOM the red line. Given how cold it was today (28F low, 50F high) here wouldn't be surprised if it was back into phase 2 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 A few severe thunderstorms over NE TX tonight. I hope we cash in on a nice shower for my lawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Giant line of precipitation formed...north, south, and west of me. Really hope we get something with this system. Haven't had a wet March in the city since 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 On 3/11/2018 at 1:57 AM, cstrunk said: A few severe thunderstorms over NE TX tonight. I hope we cash in on a nice shower for my lawn! There ended up being quite a few severe thunderstorm warnings late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There were a number of hail and wind reports (up to 80-90 mph). One of the hardest hit areas was over Lake O' The Pines, where a bunch of trees blew over. *Edit - There was unfortunately one fatality and several others injured at the Brushy Creek campground. Another fatality and injury was reported in Longview when a tree fell on a their house. I ended up with a nice lightning show and almost an inch of rain in my backyard. We're going camping in Arkansas this weekend, hope the weather cooperates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 The "winter is coming" tagline makes me feel sad every time I see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 SPC has added 15% probabilities for severe in their latest Day 4 outlook (Friday, March 16th) for all of Arkansas into southern Missouri and the Arklatex region. That's the first day of our camping trip. I love storms, but could do without them for camping, especially in an area that is saturated with tall trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Snuck in a freeze this morning with 32 degrees. Looks like we are in for a stormy weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 For the first 1/5 of 2018, ABQ is running 1.6F colder than last year, with the lows in running almost 3F colder. March looks like it has a real chance of finishing 3-8F colder than last year here. High from 3/9 to 3/15 this year is 11F colder than last year. The 3/9-3/22 period had an average high of 76.5F in 2017, won't be anywhere near that in 2018. Its been years since we've gone so deep into the year without a 70F reading here, only recent year to make it longer is 2010, when it took until 3/29. Our first, official 70F day is probably 3/22 or later. May finish March without hitting 75F...it hit 75F last year on February 10th. First 75F reading is usually around 3/26, so its not unusual that we haven't hit that level yet, but it doesn't look like it will happen in the next week either. The blend of 1st 75F reading as a date and February SOI reading is a strong indicator for the average March high, so will be interesting to see when we do hit 75F, if it is in April or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The models show that DFW metro area will be near a surface warm front, with dryline existing at some point in central Texas tomorrow. SBCAPE values are forecast to be over 2000 J/kg south of the warm front. It is possible that severe storms will form near the warm front. The SPC could upgrade this area to a limited-area slight risk or keep it at a marginal risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Chinook said: The models show that DFW metro area will be near a surface warm front, with dryline existing at some point in central Texas tomorrow. SBCAPE values are forecast to be over 2000 J/kg south of the warm front. It is possible that severe storms will form near the warm front. The SPC could upgrade this area to a limited-area slight risk or keep it at a marginal risk. Interesting, as I just noticed that the models (GFS, NAM, and NAM 3k) were suggesting that a complex of vigorous storms (possibly supercells transitioning to an MCS?) may form in the vicinity of the DFW metroplex tomorrow (especially in areas S/SW). I would place my bet on a slight risk if the models continue to suggest the formation of a storm complex. EDIT: SPC 6z outlook confirms slight risk (5% tornado/15% hail) for north central Texas, including the southern portion of the DFW metroplex. NAM and GFS place the warm front slightly further north (into Denton and Collin counties) so if this holds I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk adjusted northwards, though the NAM 3k places it on a line from downtown Fort Worth to north of downtown Dallas (resolution differences?). If the warm front moves further north (as NAM and GFS suggest) I'd expect the bulk of the DFW area to get in more on the storm action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I believe that the frontal boundary is a bit further north than the models were forecasting, which seems to be located immediately south of the DFW metroplex, along roughly a Cleburne-Midlothian-Terrell line. There's still some dry air in place over DFW (30s and 40s dewpoints compared to 50s and 60s DPs to the south), so we'll have to see how long it takes to moisten up over DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Really cool gravity waves present on GOES-16 imagery out ahead of the line to the west of DFW. You can see a really zoomed in view here:http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-Cen_Texas-02-200-0-100-1&checked=mapSent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The SOI popped to +35.9 in the most recent reading, and it looks very strongly positive to me over the next week to ten days. Here is a look at what that does to April historically - its a strong warm signal for TX, a strong cold signal for the coastal NW, and a strong wet signal for the western Dakotas, but a strong dry signal for the NM/TX/MX border areas, and the Virginia mountains. SOI is currently +8.41 for March 1-17 (it was -7.7 in February) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Feeling like north central Texas caught a break in terms of severe storms for today, but the 18Z NAM and NAM 3k are wanting to drive a big supercell through the DFW area for tomorrow, though the previous runs aren't really catching on to this idea. EDIT: 18Z GFS also hints at this idea with heavier precipitation in Denton and Collin counties; a similar placement to the 18z NAM 3k. I'm not too concerned with the exact placement as the models are just hinting at the idea that something could happen in the DFW vicinity, but it wouldn't be too pretty to see a big hailstorm go through the DFW area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I had some frost this morning with a low around 35. 8 years ago we had the finale of the amazing 09/10 winter with widespread 2" and some spots over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The models have been hinting at a decent to historic precipitation event for NM next week for about 36-hours now. Hope it verifies! Been enjoying this March, its 3:20 pm on 3/21 and have yet to hit 70F officially at the long-term observation site for the city. Last year it happened on 2/10. Also, we've had seven lows of 32F or less this month, that hasn't happened since 2012. The SOI dropped over 40 points a few days ago, from +36 to -8, so I think some kind of big system coming through next week makes sense. The 3/1-3/21 SOI is still +6.4, so its been exceptionally volatile this month, readings of -8.4 to +35.9. So far (1/1-3/20) 2018 is 2.6F colder than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 It's looking like a very stormy/rainy mid week for much of East TX, southern AR, southeast OK, into much of LA. Large hail/wind seems to be the main severe threat coupled with widespread 2"-6" rainfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 After a stormy week this week we should have a nice Easter. Beyond that looks like we turn cold again with snow showing on the Euro for areas north of I-20 next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 Expecting trace to 0.20" here tomorrow with the storm coming through. If we get over 0.13" on 3/27, this becomes the wettest March since 2010 for Albuquerque. If we get over 0.31" tomorrow, wettest March since 2007 (!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 6 hours ago, aggiegeog said: After a stormy week this week we should have a nice Easter. Beyond that looks like we turn cold again with snow showing on the Euro for areas north of I-20 next week. If DFW sees snow I'll eat my shoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 Rogue svr warnwd storm just southwest of Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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