Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

[raindancewx]

https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD

I put out a Spring Outlook if anyone is curious. It incorporates a wide variety of initial conditions for NDJ, including local precipitation, high temperatures, solar and oceanic conditions, and the MJO. Focus is on NM, but I have national maps with expected threats by month. General idea is its pretty warm nationally in Spring, but the West does get wetter relative to winter.

[aggiegeog]

Metroplex removed from WWA though some freezing drizzle this morning is still likely along with sleet showers. 

Here in Hideaway we sit at 28 with a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces from a bit of drizzle. We will see if we stay cold enough for sleet arond lunch time here. WWA still active here and to the SW of DFW.

[aggiegeog]

Thundersleet shower near Brownwood. I remember experiencing that in March 2014 here.

[cheese007]

Anyone wanna take bets on whether that thundersleet cluster reaches Dallas?

[aggiegeog]

49 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Anyone wanna take bets on whether that thundersleet cluster reaches Dallas?

Looks like it will though maybe not as intense as it was earlier.

[aggiegeog]

Impressive little event over E TX. A line of showers and thunderstorms passing through subfreezing surface temps producing a.mix of freezing rain, sleet and even a bit of snow. Bridges are slick and cars are coated in ice some spots have white ground. Solid WWA type system for most of E TX.

[vwgrrc]

It looks like the next weekend has some potential for NTX. But as always, the model runs are everywhere at this point.

[cstrunk]

Here in north Longview we had light rain that transitioned to light sleet and even some "heavy" flurries for about 10 minutes. We have another round of light precip approaching right now, so we'll see what it brings. It's been a nice little surprise so far.

[raindancewx]

Ridiculous warmth for February on the European to near average for March?

Wetter too.

The March look for temperature anomalies is pretty close to what I put in my Spring Outlook (https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD), although the European is using a more modern average, so my anomalies are higher.

[aggiegeog]

16 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Here in north Longview we had light rain that transitioned to light sleet and even some "heavy" flurries for about 10 minutes. We have another round of light precip approaching right now, so we'll see what it brings. It's been a nice little surprise so far.

I am still amazed at the snow reports. At first I discounted them with the very warm nose (50F at 850mb), but I guess the low levels were cold enough around 900mb with saturation to produce a surprise dusting for some around here.

[raindancewx]

On 2/3/2018 at 10:29 PM, raindancewx said:

Looking back at last year, we did pretty well for snow once the MJO reached the phase 2/3 transition around 2/28. For the high amplitude portion of the ongoing MJO wave, the cycles have been +49 to +55 days for phases 3,4,5,6,7 repeating, with a tendency toward the longer part of the cycle lately. Last year the MJO wave got to phase 2 on 1/21 and then 2/20 (+30 days), and then entered phase 3 on 1/26 before returning 2/28 (+33 days).

Given the +55 days cycle lately, the MJO should reach phase 8 around February 14th, sooner if the Euro is wrong about the slight retrogression towards phase 6 for a day or two. Phase one is then around Feb 22nd. Phase one is our strongest wet phase in February.

We entered phase three with current wave on 11/26 and then 1/14, so unless the wave dies or increases massively, its probably week one or week two of March.

Phase 3 Entrance: Nov 26/Jan 14 (+49)
Phase 4 Entrance: Nov 29/Jan 17 (+49)
Phase 5 Entrance: Dec 1 /Jan 22 (+52)
Phase 6 Entrance: Dec 5 /Jan 27 (+53)
Phase 7 Entrance: Dec 8 /Feb 1  (+55)
Phase 8 Entrance: Dec 20/ Feb 14 (+/-2 days?)  Euro has 2/15 but its been underestimating the MJO amplitude for the last week.

Real question at this point is when the wave dies. If it returns to the warm phases coherently in late March, the East will roast again.

 

The European for the first time has the MJO wave reaching Phase 2 around Feb 20, after entering Phase 1 around Feb 17. It seems to be slowly backing off the idea of massive retrogression towards phase 6 before the wave loses amplitude in 8-1-2. I drew in red what I think will happen given that the Euro keeps forecasting the end of the MJO wave too quickly -

Next two-three days are really key for timing the wave, we'll know if its going to retrograde or not. The retrogrades its seen so far have ended up just being slower movement towards phase 8.

[aggiegeog]

To me it looks like a below average next few weeks with plenty of precip for most of the state. PNA going negative finally, EPO may be going positive though models have shown this many times and it has not happened and NAO/AO goes negative as the SSW event flexes its muscles. I would say wintery weather is very possible for northern Texas. Next week has potential though PNA may be too negative with too positive of a NAO. Later in the month still has good potential especially if the PNA stays closer to neutral. We are moving into a very Nino esque pattern with highs near or below average and lows near to above average with little to no sun and lots of rain. Anytime the PNA slips back toward neutral then we will turn chilly with some of the best Atlantic blocking we have seen in a long time. This will finally give the SW some drought relief hopefully extending into the Panhandles.

[raindancewx]

The Amarillo dry streak is still ongoing from Oct 13 I believe. No rain. No snow.

Where I am, it looks like we've had maybe 0.03" to 0.05" with the rains today, but the dew points were 14-16 until around 5 pm, and only have reached the 30s/40s in the last 90 minutes or so. So no official accumulation at the airport....just trace (Edit: Now 0.01" as of 7:50 pm)

Phoenix, Flagstaff, and Tuscon all got some real measurable precipitation out of this event. Flagstaff has corrected up a fair bit toward normal snow since mid-January, looks like they are at 15 inches of snow for the season now (they were at 0 through mid-January)

[aggiegeog]

Looks like Sipapu got 10", their biggest snow of the season so far. They are finally over 2 feet for the season. Should be able to say that by before Christmas most years.

[raindancewx]

This event ended up delivering largely as I'd hoped, the snow pack numbers improved for all areas of NM compared to yesterday. The city got 0.44", which brings us to 0.47" for the winter. Easily our biggest precipitation event since October. Even Sandia Peak, right next to the city got 8 inches from the event, as it was <50F when most of the precipitation fell in Albuquerque. They have a 20 inch base now.

[raindancewx]

Rained in Amarillo!

[aggiegeog]

Significant ice event possible tomorrow from the Midland area NE towards Wichita Falls tomorrow (light ice possible for DFW). Rain amounts will be over three inches for large swaths of N and E TX through Thursday with a few spots pushing up towards 10 inches.

Sipapu received another 10" so the northern NM snowpack is quickly building finally.

[radarman]

Localized but significant straight line wind damage overnight in Godley (Johnson County).  Decent line today through the metroplex and maybe one more round coming later on with the fropa.

[raindancewx]

MJO entered phase 8 on 2/19. The big key for March is whether it returns to meaningless amplitude today (2/20), or if it transitions to phase one today at increasing amplitude. The European has entry to phase 2 on 2/23, before the wave finally dies on 2/28. I'm hoping it slows down at high amplitude one more time. NM snow pack has slowly recovered, but still well below average. The very cold temperatures today do help for sure (39F at 3 pm).

The February SOI crash remains massive: Feb 1-20 is at -16.5. For the life of me, its nearly impossible to come up with February Nino 1.2 & Nino 3.4 readings as cold as February 2018 will be, that have a big negative SOI crash. Joe Bastardi likes February 1962, but the SOI & Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4 regions are all going to be lower values than 1962. The blends I can come up with that are relatively close on all three indexes all show relatively opposite patterns to what the CFS has, although it is backing off on heat in the West. Something like this is the simplest blend I could think of that's close on the SOI, Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4 readings I expect February 2018. Big -SOI readings in February do tend to warm up the NW/N. Plains in March, so the blend has most of the West warm, not cold, like the CFS shows.

DJF      FSOI    F 1.2     F 3.4
1970     15.5    24.42    25.18
1980     -4.2    24.93     26.11
1985    -12.1    26.00    26.05
2004    -29.5    25.16    27.11
Mean   -7.58    25.13    26.11
2017    -11.00   25.10   25.90

Congratulations to the Northeast! Philadelphia is in the 70s today. Yet to happen here.

[aggiegeog]

3 hours ago, radarman said:

Localized but significant straight line wind damage overnight in Godley (Johnson County).  Decent line today through the metroplex and maybe one more round coming later on with the fropa.

I believe this was determined to be an EF-0.

[raindancewx]

After scoring local conditions for DJF (estimating Feb), looking at Feb Nino 1.2, Feb Nino 3.4, Solar Conditions, and converting the extended SST data in Nino 1.2 & Nino 3.4 that goes back to 1870 to ERSST V.5 temperatures for 1931-1949, incorporating the ongoing February SOI crash, the MJO, and years after major hurricanes hit TX...I ended up with this -

This is probably a better blend overall than above, as its close on local conditions too, and solar conditions, since 1933-34, and 1980-81 are included. Four years when TX was hit by a major hurricane show up among the top-20 matches to this winter here (roughly double the frequency of the poorer analogs). DJF just means its February 1934 conditions, but the winter started in 1933, and the major hurricane was in 1933. DJF? is my assessment of whether the winter highs/precip matched 2017-18 well overall. 1933-34 is overall, the second best match since 1931-32. I generally lower/raise March precipitation estimates for ABQ by solar activity, since every 100-sunspots here accounts for about 0.11" in March. I did that here too (under March column), but since my SOI blend isn't nearly low enough, it offsets the solar loss and then some. 

[aggiegeog]

Incredibly hard call for DFW tomorrow. 33 and heavy rain or 29 and a mess of a mix. With such a shallow cold layer and warm ground major issues are unlikely though DFW has lots of elevated roads so it could get tricky out there. NW of DFW could get nasty though.

[cheese007]

I'm skeptical of any sort of wintry weather occurring at this point 

[aggiegeog]

22 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

I'm skeptical of any sort of wintry weather occurring at this point 

For the city, it will take below 28 likely for significant impacts which is unlikely. Icicles hanging from signs and trees along with sleet is likely though. A very similar setup 10 days ago gave my area a glaze with white roofs with 28 to 31 degree surface and 50 degrees at 850 mb even some spotty snow.

[jhamps10]

Was watching NBC 5 tonight and Rick Mitchell was doing all he could to try to emphasize how future cast showing ice in dfw for morning Rush could be overdone... We shall see in the morning but I think at least Tarrant county the further nw you are better prepare for more than just rain tomorrow morning

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

What a happening in Texas in February! 

[cheese007]

Mid 30s and raining for most of the DFW today. It's like the weather is teasing us

[aggiegeog]

Getting bad out towards Abilene and Wichita Falls where there is an Ice Storm Warning. WWA to the NW edge of DFW could extend into Tarrant and Collin later today. 

[raindancewx]

The CFS still has a cold West, warm NE kind of look for March. I think its struggling with the SOI crash (still -15.9 Feb 1-21) with the La Nina base state. But, I was able to roughly re-produce what it shows, with the caveat that it is no where near low enough on the SOI in the blend. I'm sure it will change its mind too. It had Albuquerque +9F for February on 1/31, which looks pretty bad now, we'll probably be +3F to +5F, a lot closer to the Canadian's +6F for February.

It hasn't rained meaningfully in Amarillo in like four+ months now, so that seems like a good idea for an area of heat/dryness if the ridge over the SE this month goes West.

 

[aggiegeog]

The NM mountains continue to see their snow piling up with heavy snow falling this morning. They have been getting almost daily snow for the last week plus with that expected to continue for the foreseeable future.