jhamps10 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, cheese007 said: The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it Oh yeah, nbc5 is still in full hype mode too. I bet they have the thunder trucks out already lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, cheese007 said: The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. Wouldn't hold my breath on that... They are the ones that hyped up our 2 minutes of snow from Thursday after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. Still amazed about the shift to the NAM. I swear I was only kidding in that last post EDIT: Wonder what's the longest area school districts have gone without issuing a snow day? I know UTD has not issued one since 2015 (and have doubts we will this year). Very real possibility that some folks middle school years will not include a snow day, and depending on this coming winter that may be expanded to include HS/college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Still amazed about the shift to the NAM. I swear I was only kidding in that last post I remember someone said NAM is the only one he would watch for inside 48 hours. Didn't believe that until now... all models converging to NAM in this case, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Still looks like it will be a rare event where E TX is the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Someone just post a 0z HRRRX on Twitter which looks pretty impressive for DFW to E TX. I have no idea how reliable that model is but that solution seems a lot more significant (and icy) than what NWS has discussed. Can anyone verify that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Someone just post a 0z HRRRX on Twitter which looks pretty impressive for DFW to E TX. I have no idea how reliable that model is but that solution seems a lot more significant (and icy) than what NWS has discussed. Can anyone verify that? I just pulled it up on tropical tidbits and yes it does show a LOT more moisture and ice for not just dfw but the entire state really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: I just pulled it up on tropical tidbits and yes it does show a LOT more moisture and ice for not just dfw but the entire state really.. Any idea about the track record of this model at this range? Some say it's a good short range model. But another trusted model - RGEM didn't show nearly as much precip as that model does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Any idea about the track record of this model at this range? Some say it's a good short range model. But another trusted model - RGEM didn't show nearly as much precip as that model does. Honestly I have no clue as I hadn't heard of this model until just now, but I will say this looking at radar in Kansas and it does appear to me that there would be a bit more moisture along the front than advertised.. think it depends on how fast it moves more than anything at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The HRRRx (the HRRR experimental version) has done well in the past; so it is definitely worth watching as we get in operational range of the current HRRR. Remember that with surface temperatures falling into the 20s it won't take much precipitation to cause major travel problems. I'm also concerned with the potential for enhanced sleet bands across South-Central Texas. Some models have been hitting Austin and San Antonio pretty hard with sleet on Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is it just me or the models (primarily NAM and HRRRX) have trended north by a little bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 A big thing in our favor up along I20 is that the models last night initialized the surface high too strong which caused things to dry out too quickly up this way. The hi res models are more accurate with their initialization and they show percip starting along the Read River vs along I20. This leads to a longer duration precip event. Up here most precip will be frozen but we will have to see when the transition happens from sleet to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 One of my friends is working just North of Tulsa, OK this morning and sent me this picture. I am not as familiar with how systems move in this part of the country. Is some of what we may see here in N Texas later today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: A big thing in our favor up along I20 is that the models last night initialized the surface high too strong which caused things to dry out too quickly up this way. The hi res models are more accurate with their initialization and they show percip starting along the Read River vs along I20. This leads to a longer duration precip event. Up here most precip will be frozen but we will have to see when the transition happens from sleet to snow. Agree. You can see this change now on HRRR. More snow linger around NTX after the front pushed into Central TX. What concerns me is the HRRRX solution has a lot more ice before the transition to snow! But I'm not familiar with that model. No idea why it's so different from HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 I said a few days ago that two snow events in one winter was unheard of here and that stratocumulus snow was something I hadn't experienced until this year. I might have to update those two statements in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, vwgrrc said: Agree. You can see this change now on HRRR. More snow linger around NTX after the front pushed into Central TX. What concerns me is the HRRRX solution has a lot more ice before the transition to snow! But I'm not familiar with that model. No idea why it's so different from HRRR. I sure am hoping that the cold deepens quickly cutting down on the ice and sleet and upping the snow. Deep E TX and northern Central Texas could get a good amount of sleet though. Up along I 20 in E TX we could see 3-5" totals if the cold deepens fast enough maybe more in spots. The trends are sure looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Seems like the 17 HRRR is hanging back precip ever so slightly vs. 16 just a tad longer over DFW. It's going to be close, but some optimism today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 44 minutes ago, Roy said: Seems like the 17 HRRR is hanging back precip ever so slightly vs. 16 just a tad longer over DFW. It's going to be close, but some optimism today. And even more moisture on the latest 18. It's leaning toward the HRRRX solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Some schools south and se of the DFW metro already calling off school for tomorrow... Cold front coming into DFW as we speak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NWS just said they believe the HRRR(X) is a too wet while they favored the WRF and NAM's drier solutions. I always thought HRRR is very good at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The HRRR definitely seems like it has more precipitation trending North and West. It’s subtle, but the is some definite movement.The first image is 18z run and the second is 21z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Captmorg70 said: The HRRR definitely seems like it has more precipitation trending North and West. It’s subtle, but the is some definite movement.The first image is 18z run and the second is 21z run. I have a feeling that NWS is bit conservative by saying that HRRR is too wet (or maybe they ignore the trend?). But if the this solution pans out, it gonna be a major ice event that includes DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: NWS just said they believe the HRRR(X) is a too wet while they favored the WRF and NAM's drier solutions. I always thought HRRR is very good at this range... Has there been any time in the past where the NAM has verified better than HRRR and NWS called it in advandce? Getting a sense of deja-vu but not sure if it's the lack of wintry precip these last few years driving me crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: I have a feeling that NWS is bit conservative by saying that HRRR is too wet (or maybe they ignore the trend?). But if the this solution pans out, it gonna be a major ice event that includes DFW. It seems that at least the latter portion of the period that the HRRR has ice could be sleet of even snow per the soundings which show just a slight warm nose. This could bump totals up some even if it is overdoing moisture by a bit. HRRR gives me around 0.5" liquid with subfreezing temps. Gives Dallas Co 0.1-0.2" liquid when subfreezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Radar at 5PM seems showing less precip than HRRR predicted. Not a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like HP at 1051 as of 21Z. So less strong than some models showed still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 52 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Radar at 5PM seems showing less precip than HRRR predicted. Not a very good sign. Betting against the NWS is a fool's errand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I just stepped out in Burleson and there's already cold rain falling here, I tried putting cardboard on the windshield... This wind just blew it right off... So back to my Midwestern roots of raising the wiper blades and have the scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We will see how theradar looks overt the next couple hours and the amount of snow showing up near the Red River will tell the take off what we can expect overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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